Checking out the possibilties for my area here in NW Ohio and the Day 4 outlook from SPC includes us and the confidence in this severe event is "high".
...DAY 4 /SUN APR 10/...
THE POTENTIAL FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE THREAT EXTENDING FROM NRN LA TO
IA AND EWD THROUGH THE TN/OH VALLEYS AND PART OF THE WRN GREAT LAKES
FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING
REMAINS VERY LIKELY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH FOR THIS SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES AS
STRONG HEIGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE DAY 4 OUTLOOK AREA...
ESPECIALLY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. A SURFACE LOW ATTENDANT TO THE PROGRESSIVE MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO TRACK FROM WRN KS INTO IA BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
REACH THE WRN GREAT LAKES BY 12Z MONDAY. A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO OVERTAKE THE PLAINS DRY LINE WITH TSTMS DEVELOPING
INITIALLY FROM ERN OK TO WRN IA. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL MAINTAIN
A MOIST AIR MASS ALREADY IN PLACE AT THE START OF DAY 4 AND SUPPORT
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER WIND
FIELDS ACROSS THE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PROMOTE BOTH LINE SEGMENTS
AND SUPERCELLS WITH THE INITIAL ACTIVITY SPREADING TO THE MS VALLEY.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD EVOLVE TO
PRIMARILY DAMAGING WINDS AS A BROAD SWLY LLJ /50-70 KT/ DEVELOPS
FROM THE MID SOUTH TO OH VALLEY AND A SQUALL LINE ADVANCES EWD FROM
THE MS VALLEY.
With much warmer temps moving into the area, possibly up to 80, this kind of event is almost inevitable. I have to do much more checking on the models to see what is happening for my area specifically. Thats the fun part!!!
Mark
