Author Topic: Severe Weather Outbreak - 4/4/11 to 4/5/11 (Read 14681 times)

skysummit · « **Reply #25 on:** April 03, 2011, 01:44:08 PM »

That's a teeny Moderate Risk for today with Kansas City being the bullseye of it. I suspect tomorrow we'll see a larger Moderate Risk covering the northern half of Mississippi, part of western Tennessee, and possibly part of western Kentucky. The triangled area of Jackson, MS to Memphis, TN to Nashville, TN is my highest threat area for tomorrow.

skysummit · « **Reply #26 on:** April 03, 2011, 02:39:13 PM »

The CAP is weakening west of Kansas City. Things are about to go boom in the Moderate Risk area. How much will the storms mature prior to sunset though????

skysummit · « **Reply #27 on:** April 03, 2011, 05:09:49 PM »

The CAP is almost fully eroded west of Kansas City now. Unfortunately it doesn't look like much will happen prior to sunset.

skysummit · « **Reply #28 on:** April 03, 2011, 05:47:50 PM »

Kansas City - SBCAPE now up to 3500 j/kg with a CIN of 50. Lift Index is at -8. Looks like the time bomb is getting ready to go.

The CAP is also beginning to erode in central Missouri.

skysummit · « **Reply #29 on:** April 03, 2011, 05:56:22 PM »

Since the frontal boundary is already nearing the KC area, the SPC has highlighted the area to the northeast.

The Garden Meterologist · « **Reply #30 on:** April 03, 2011, 06:29:43 PM »

Here Latest models for tomarrow. You might be in some action on Monday. GFS, NAM-WRF, RUC and Mesoanalysis.

The Garden Meterologist · « **Reply #31 on:** April 03, 2011, 07:54:23 PM »

You're right There are couple of watches are out for that area. Severe Thunderstorm watch and tornado watch for that area.

skysummit · « **Reply #32 on:** April 03, 2011, 08:27:46 PM »

My original area has finally taken off. It's the area with the SVR T-Storm Watch. I think those have pretty much the same potential as going tornadic as the ones in the Tornado Watch area.

For tomorrow down here, I'm expecting a few storms to fire ahead of the main line, but my real threat will be damaging winds...possibly a derecho event, rather than tornadic supercells. However that's not written in stone yet either. If the trough tilts a bit more down here at the gulf coast, our tornado threat would increase some.

skysummit · « **Reply #33 on:** April 03, 2011, 08:36:55 PM »

Once the CAP fully eroded west of Kansas City, storms exploded along the frontal boundary. Here's a beautiful shot just as the sun is setting.

The Garden Meterologist · « **Reply #34 on:** April 03, 2011, 08:51:08 PM »

Here Is a latest radar shot of the storms from GR3 with TVS ETVS and Mesocyclones in the radar shot.

The Garden Meterologist · « **Reply #35 on:** April 03, 2011, 09:26:02 PM »

Update
They just put up a anther severe thunderstorm watch IL area. Here is the info.

skysummit · « **Reply #36 on:** April 03, 2011, 11:11:17 PM »

We could be seeing that southern extent of the line shifting farther south in the coming hours and a new watch box may be needed for eastern Oklahoma. One supercell is already underway in central Texas.

BigOkie · « **Reply #37 on:** April 04, 2011, 12:40:10 AM »

Quote from: skysummit on April 03, 2011, 11:11:17 PM

We could be seeing that southern extent of the line shifting farther south in the coming hours and a new watch box may be needed for eastern Oklahoma. One supercell is already underway in central Texas.

Just great. Have already heard the weather radio twice tonight for warnings west of me and the wind has been a HUGE factor today. I can smell grass fires for sure and have been smelling them for the better part of two days.

Welcome to spring in Tornado Alley folks!

Chris H. · « **Reply #38 on:** April 04, 2011, 12:54:40 AM »

Quote from: BigOkie on April 04, 2011, 12:40:10 AM

Quote from: skysummit on April 03, 2011, 11:11:17 PM
We could be seeing that southern extent of the line shifting farther south in the coming hours and a new watch box may be needed for eastern Oklahoma. One supercell is already underway in central Texas.

Just great. Have already heard the weather radio twice tonight for warnings west of me and the wind has been a HUGE factor today. I can smell grass fires for sure and have been smelling them for the better part of two days.

Welcome to spring in Tornado Alley folks!

Floods, fires, twisters, large hail and allergies. I love the Midwest. $\:D/$

WeatherHost · « **Reply #39 on:** April 04, 2011, 02:11:11 AM »

Quote from: BigOkie on April 04, 2011, 12:40:10 AM

I can smell grass fires for sure and have been smelling them for the better part of two days.

Ha!! Which one(s)? Looks like you have several to choose from.

Red and orange dots are within the last 24 hours. Yellow dots are within the last 6 days.

WeatherHost · « **Reply #40 on:** April 04, 2011, 02:30:48 AM »

Moderate for Monday for parts of AR, LA, MS, AL, TN and KY

WeatherHost · « **Reply #41 on:** April 04, 2011, 02:36:38 AM »

SPC LSRs show Hurricane Force winds in KS and MO

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/reports/110403_rpts.html

The Garden Meterologist · « **Reply #42 on:** April 04, 2011, 03:54:22 AM »

I was surprised southeastern Wis. gotten too with storms because I have aunt thats live doen there.

skysummit · « **Reply #43 on:** April 04, 2011, 08:42:28 AM »

Quote from: WeatherHost on April 04, 2011, 02:30:48 AM

Moderate for Monday for parts of AR, LA, MS, AL, TN and KY

That's pretty darn close to where I'd say it would be

I still think northern MS and possibly western TN will have the greatest threat of supercell activity ahead of the main line. The WRF breaks the CAP down in these areas between noon and 1PM local time. It starts to erode around 10am. So if we're going to see supercells develop ahead of the main line, it could be anytime between 10am and 1pm...leaning more toward the 1pm time frame when CAPE values should be around 2500j/kg. These cells look to develop just ahead of the main line, IF they develop at all. We may just be dealing with a squall line. The biggest thing that looks to be inhibiting earlier development is the current cloud cover limiting daytime heating to break the CAP earlier.

The same thing goes for me down here. Looks like my best chance for development may begin around 1pm, but more so between 1pm and 4pm ahead of the main line.

mackbig · « **Reply #44 on:** April 04, 2011, 08:53:46 AM »

This is in the "slight" zone.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 89
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM CDT MON APR 4 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
SOUTHERN INDIANA
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
WESTERN TENNESSEE

EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL 300
PM CDT.

skysummit · « **Reply #45 on:** April 04, 2011, 11:27:45 AM »

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0343
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1025 AM CDT MON APR 04 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL MS...NWRN AL...MIDDLE TN

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 89...

VALID 041525Z - 041730Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 89 CONTINUES.

ADDITIONAL TORNADO WATCHES ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED DOWNSTREAM OF
WATCH 89...FROM PORTIONS OF CNTRL MS NEWD INTO MIDDLE TN.

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS INTENSIFYING BOW STRUCTURES ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER SRN AR...WITH CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO
WRN TN. THE TN ACTIVITY MAY GRADUALLY BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED AS
LOW LEVEL THETA E ADVECTION CONTINUES BENEATH A CAPPING INVERSION.
VAD/PROFILER DATA INDICATE SHEAR PROFILES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WARM
SECTOR ARE FAVORABLE FOR LONG LIVED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF A FEW
TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE SRN AR/NRN LA ACTIVITY HAS BECOME LARGELY LINEAR SUGGESTING
DAMAGING WINDS BUT MAY EXHIBIT AREAS OF ROTATION EMBEDDED WITHIN THE
LINE WITH A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE. EXISTING CELLULAR ACTIVITY AHEAD
OF THE SQUALL LINE...AND ANY FURTHER ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT...MAY HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE AT PRODUCING TORNADOES BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
OVERTAKES THE AREA.

FARTHER N WRN/CNTRL KY...DESTABILIZATION WILL CONTINUE MAINLY DUE TO
ADVECTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN SEVERE THREAT. OBJECTIVE
ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING EFFECTIVE PARCEL LAYER/SRH OVER WRN TN/KY
AS MID 60S F DEWPOINTS SPREAD NWD. A TORNADO AND DAMAGING WIND
THREAT WILL INCREASE WITH THIS ACTIVITY AS IT DEVELOPS EWD INTO
CNTRL KY THIS AFTERNOON.

IMADreamer · « **Reply #46 on:** April 04, 2011, 11:38:52 AM »

I know it's a day late but I spent all yesterday planting corn and didn't get done until the rain came sometime around midnight. Yesterday was kind of epic. I'm in West Central Illinois in the Quincy area. The day started off nice but windy. I clocked several 50+ gusts on my portable anemometer. We were under some mid and high clouds all day then at about 3:30 there was strong sun. By 5pm it was 90 degrees! It's April 3rd for pete sake. I kept waiting and wait to see towers go up but nothing got going. Then finally as the sun was going down I could just see the storms in Iowa going up as the light faded. As the lightning got closer and more prolific we headed in so that everything was shedded before any rain fell. The last temp reading I took before heading in was 85 degrees, at midnight!! That doesn't even happen in the summer usually. Finally the storms came with some strong gust and small hail. Plus a good half inch of rain but it was over quick. Today I woke up to temps in the low 40s and dropping.

What a crazy day it was. Now on to watch the east coast get their round of storms.

Chris H. · « **Reply #47 on:** April 04, 2011, 12:27:25 PM »

I don't think there's been a PDS watch of any kind yet.

skysummit · « **Reply #48 on:** April 04, 2011, 01:17:38 PM »

Quote from: Chris H. on April 04, 2011, 12:27:25 PM

I don't think there's been a PDS watch of any kind yet.

I don't think there will be either...at least not with this storm system. This is more of a linear storm rather than a supercell threat.

The Garden Meterologist · « **Reply #49 on:** April 04, 2011, 02:21:42 PM »

I got the latest radar shot from F5Data. Here it is. Nashville Tn getting hammered right now Here is pic from GR3 program

News:

Author Topic: Severe Weather Outbreak - 4/4/11 to 4/5/11 (Read 14681 times)