Topic: Severe Weather Outbreak - 4/4/11 to 4/5/11

[skysummit]

Everything is point to a possible significant severe weather outbreak early next week across the mid south all the way down to the gulf coast.  The SPC has already outlined this area in their D5 forecast. I'm sure we'll see a Slight Risk for this area by D3 and possibly a Moderate Risk once we get into D2. 

[Downlinerz2]

  The local TV Met I like to watch has been talking about a threat even up here come Monday.  Don't know if it will reach here.
   Here is the CPC threats/hazzards map.
         Mark

[IMADreamer]

This one certainly has potential but it's early yet.

[skysummit]

I'm going to go out on a limb and say by the time this is within the SPC's 2 Day Outlook, we'll see a Moderate Risk in place from eastern Arkansas through the northern halves of Mississippi and Alabama and going north to include western Tennessee and a portion of western Kentucky. 

I think the convection will initiate in northeast Texas sometime on early Monday with supercells developing farther east into Louisiana, Arkansas and Mississippi as the day goes on.  By Monday afternoon/evening, this outbreak may be in full force with Tornado Watches in place for much of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama and western Tennessee.  The primary threat will first be supercells ahead of a main line that will develop later in the evening into the overnight hours as it pushes east into Alabama, Tennessee and Kentucky. 

My target area for the highest tornado threat is eastern Arkansas, central and northern Mississippi, central and northern Alabama, and western Tennessee.  Parts of Missouri, Kentucky, southern Illinois and southern Indiana will also see active weather.

Then the activity pushes farther east by the next day, however should not be "as extreme" as we'll see on Monday into Monday night.


Let's see if I'm anywhere near close on this LOL

[skysummit]

Looking at the latest data this morning, if these trends continue, I highly believe we'll see a Moderate Risk for much of Mississippi, parts of Alabama and parts of Louisiana when this area gets within the SPC Day 2 Outlook.  It's looking pretty dangerous right now for central Mississippi.

[Downlinerz2]

  Do you use the GFS model to get most of your data, and which do you think is the best website to get your info from?  I have been using UNISYS and RAP but I wish there was something a bit better.
     Thanks for your info and forecasts .  I hope I can get to that level someday.
      Mark

[The Garden Meterologist]

Look at this From SPC goto http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730_prt.html for the three day outlook.

[Downlinerz2]

Look at this From SPC goto http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk_0730_prt.html for the three day outlook.

  Thanks, I have been using the SPC outlooks for sometime but wanted to see how to glean information from the different models. I like taking the SPC discussions for each outlook day and comparing them to the models to identify what I am seeing on the model panels but it can get really difficult. Nothing worthwhile is easy, at least usually.  Thanks again,
    Mark

[IMADreamer]

I certainly won't be shocked to see a moderate risk if everything plays out as it looks like it will.  

[The Garden Meterologist]

Hi
I just used NAM-WRF model for that area Texas might get it first. Here is a map of Cape LI Cinh values

[skysummit]

 Do you use the GFS model to get most of your data, and which do you think is the best website to get your info from?  I have been using UNISYS and RAP but I wish there was something a bit better.
     Thanks for your info and forecasts .  I hope I can get to that level someday.
      Mark

I normally first use the GFS from the NCEP site
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

I then look to the ECMWF and CMC for agreement....both from the PSU E-Wall
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html


Once I find a potential target area, I'll look back at the WRF & GFS's forecasted thermodynamics...mostly from twisterdata.com and RAP.  I'll also check forecasted soundings from across the area using mostly twisterdata.com, and of course read the discussions from the SPC and NWS offices.

Once we get within short range, I use the RUC, WRF, and actual soundings from the most recent launch either from Unisys, Nexlab or the SPC and also keep a close eye on the hourly SPC Mesoanalysis page
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19

Lately, I've been trying to use the model tools within SimuAwips since I normally have it opened up anyway.  I'm no where near a pro on this...it's just a big time hobby of mine

[Downlinerz2]

  Do you use the GFS model to get most of your data, and which do you think is the best website to get your info from?  I have been using UNISYS and RAP but I wish there was something a bit better.
     Thanks for your info and forecasts .  I hope I can get to that level someday.
      Mark

I normally first use the GFS from the NCEP site
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller

I then look to the ECMWF and CMC for agreement....both from the PSU E-Wall
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ewall.html


Once I find a potential target area, I'll look back at the WRF & GFS's forecasted thermodynamics...mostly from twisterdata.com and RAP.  I'll also check forecasted soundings from across the area using mostly twisterdata.com, and of course read the discussions from the SPC and NWS offices.
Once we get within short range, I use the RUC, WRF, and actual soundings from the most recent launch either from Unisys, Nexlab or the SPC and also keep a close eye on the hourly SPC Mesoanalysis page
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19
Lately, I've been trying to use the model tools within SimuAwips since I normally have it opened up anyway.  I'm no where near a pro on this...it's just a big time hobby of mine

   Thanks Scott! I will be checking those out.  I just rediscovered this morning the SREF on SPC. And, I too have been using Simuawips more.  It is a great quick-look tool.
   Thanks again,
    Mark

[W Thomas]

Could be a very valid condition,,Our local WFO has actually casually mentioned the word thunderstorm which seldom happens until after the fact usually.

Look at a few model runs after while and see how it pans out..Right now we're having cold and snow flurries LOL!

[WeatherHost]

I just look out the window.

[skysummit]

I just look out the window.

It might be too late for that if there's already a tree through it.   

[Downlinerz2]

Hi
I just used NAM-WRF model for that area Texas might get it first. Here is a map of Cape LI Cinh values

   When I was looking through the SPC's SREF all of the parameters (CAPE, Lift,
ect and Significant Tornado Parameter) were all highest in Eastern Texas with a dry-line present.  None of that makes anything for sure but it seems like it will start around there in Texas.  But, I am pretty much a beginner.
     Mark

[The Garden Meterologist]

Hi
I just used NAM-WRF model for that area Texas might get it first. Here is a map of Cape LI Cinh values

   When I was looking through the SPC's SREF all of the parameters (CAPE, Lift,
ect and Significant Tornado Parameter) were all highest in Eastern Texas with a dry-line present.  None of that makes anything for sure but it seems like it will start around there in Texas.  But, I am pretty much a beginner.
     Mark

I just got MSD For that area. Here is the info. goto http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0326.html

[Chris H.]

Central TX to Wern Illinois

[skysummit]

That's the current Day 3 Outlook. I'm referring more to the Day 4 Outlook, OR the NEXT Day 3 Outlook depending on how you want to look at it.  Today's data is more in favor of a severe squall line with possible embedded supercells and bowing segments and less toward individual cell formation out front.  This front will be hauling butt so supercells ahead of the line may not have enough time to mature.  Still a long time to watch this so things can change.  I'm still placing my bullseye mostly on central and northern Mississippi and western Tennessee for the highest threat area.  That's also where I think a Moderate Risk may be placed once we're within the Day 2 Outlook.

[IMADreamer]

I just started using twisterdata.com about a month ago, I love it.  It's pretty lightweight so it loads quick.  Unisys has always been my go to for models, but of course the SPC is great and always in my arsenal. 

[The Garden Meterologist]

I just ran RUC model here. The model Here Indicated OK Might get nailed first. If that cold front moving fast There might not supercells to form, Here is picture RUC Model to look at.

[skysummit]

That's the current Day 3 Outlook. I'm referring more to the Day 4 Outlook, OR the NEXT Day 3 Outlook depending on how you want to look at it.  Today's data is more in favor of a severe squall line with possible embedded supercells and bowing segments and less toward individual cell formation out front.  This front will be hauling butt so supercells ahead of the line may not have enough time to mature.  Still a long time to watch this so things can change.  I'm still placing my bullseye mostly on central and northern Mississippi and western Tennessee for the highest threat area.  That's also where I think a Moderate Risk may be placed once we're within the Day 2 Outlook.

Well so far, my guessing is pretty good for that Day 3 Outlook.  We'll see if it changes much for the Day 2 Outlook later.  Today's ECMWF did increase the chance of individual supercells ahead of the main line.  Our local NWS office has put their thinking more inline with the ECMWF rather than the GFS and NAM.


Day 3....my mention of western TN is pretty close to the center of the 30% risk:

[The Garden Meterologist]

Here is mesoanalysis model of same model I did with RUC model It pointing to OK To get nailed tomarrow too.

[W Thomas]

WFO Morristown Tn has already issued some special weather statements for some counties I warn on. So far I am in the clear but that's a whole nuther story and WFO's way of thinking.. I'm gonna stay up with the models just in case. Like was said earlier you cant look out the window after there's a tree through it and I experienced that last October

[WeatherHost]

Upgraded to Moderate for parts of Nebraska & Missouri