Topic: Feb. 24th, 2011: Looks Threatening

[Chris H.]

The latest for Day 4...

Will probably change as the week progresses. Anybody think tornadoes are possible?

Latest text says the SPC is predicting…well you might as well read it :

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 210953
   SPC AC 210953
  
   DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0353 AM CST MON FEB 21 2011
  
   VALID 241200Z - 011200Z
  
   ...DISCUSSION...
   AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON THU/D4 FROM
   ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...NRN MS...CNTRL AND
   WRN KY AND TN...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO FRI/D5 ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
  
   MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN DEPICTING A POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY THU WITH A
   SURFACE LOW DEEPENING FROM ROUGHLY OK AT 12Z TO MO/AR BY 00Z. AHEAD
   OF THE DEEPENING LOW...A RELATIVELY WIDE MOIST/WARM SECTOR WILL BE
   IN PLACE WITH BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S F. STRONG FORCING
   WITH THE UPPER TROUGH...COOLING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND THE
   PRESENCE OF VERY STRONG WIND PROFILES SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
   WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS
   IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
  
   THE GREATEST THREAT AREA ON THU WILL LIKELY BE NEAR AND JUST S OF
   THE SURFACE LOW TRACK DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
   LATEST ITERATION OF NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THIS WOULD
   INCLUDE MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...FAR NRN MS...AND MUCH OF WRN KY AND
   TN.
  
   SOME SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO
   FRI/D5...ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE WILL BE LESS. AS
   SUCH...THE EXPECTED SEVERE THREAT FRI WILL LIKELY BE COMPRISED OF
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH AN INTENSE COLD FRONT AND A
   STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF STORMS...FROM THE DELMARVA SWD ACROSS VA.
   THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY HAVE LITTLE INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH...AND
   WOULD BE RELATIVELY LOW TOPPED...BUT A STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE
   FALL/RISE COUPLET WOULD ENHANCE WIND POTENTIAL WITH THE LINE.
  
   AFTER THE D4 TO D5 TIME FRAME...MODEL SOLUTIONS DIVERGE RAPIDLY.
  

[skysummit]

Although a few tornadoes will be possible, I'm thinking this will be more of a damaging wind threat due to shear profiles currently forecasted.  However, things may change.  With all the instability that will be in place, I think we'll see numerous severe t-storm warnings though!  Looking forward to it!

[WeatherHost]

I'm not sure 'promising' would be the right word since that infers something good and positive.

'Interesting' or 'threatening' might be better.

[BigOkie]

Like I said in an earlier post, I don't put a lot of stock in the Convectives further out than day 2.  It was just last year these extended products were put into the mainstream; before that, they were always considered 'experimental'.

Shore these up tomorrow for Thursday, and I'll start breaking out the camcorders.  Not going to get excited just yet.

[Chris H.]

Like I said in an earlier post, I don't put a lot of stock in the Convectives further out than day 2.  It was just last year these extended products were put into the mainstream; before that, they were always considered 'experimental'.

Shore these up tomorrow for Thursday, and I'll start breaking out the camcorders.  Not going to get excited just yet.

How I wish I lived in Oklahoma. You're much closer to the action than I am.

[WeatherHost]

New Day 3 just posted:

...ERN OK/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY...
   A COMPLEX...AND RAPIDLY CHANGING SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD ON THU. WHILE
   SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...A SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY REGARDLESS OF FINER SCALE DETAILS WHICH
   WILL BECOME CLEARER IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
   
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT...MAY BE ONGOING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK THU MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
   ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FROM SERN KS ACROSS MO
   AND INTO NRN AR AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ALONG AND N OF A WARM
   FRONT...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
   
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
   THE OK/AR BORDER FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SWRN MO AS COOLING ALOFT
   OVERSPREADS A TIGHTENING DRYLINE SURGE BENEATH SUBSTANTIAL DCVA
   ALOFT. WHILE PROGGED INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG...THEY WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG FORCING
   FOR ASCENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION IS
   NOT PRECISELY KNOWN AT THIS TIME...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT MAY
   EXIST ALONG THE JUST S OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EWD ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED. 
   
   A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
   MORNING HOURS AS FAR E AS SRN INDIANA AND CNTRL KY AS THE LOW
   CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.

[Chris H.]

Slight Risk.

SPC AC 220824
  
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST TUE FEB 22 2011
  
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK/ARKLATEX EWD ACROSS
   AR...SRN MO...NRN MS/AL AND INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEYS...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WITH 80-100 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX WILL
   TRAVEL EWD FROM THE SRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE MS
   VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN
   AS IT MOVES FROM OK THU MORNING EWD ACROSS SRN MO AND NRN AR BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. A DRYLINE WILL SHARPEN AS THE SYSTEM PROGRESSES
   EWD...EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM SWRN MO SWD ALONG THE OK/AR BORDER AND
   INTO SERN TX AROUND 00Z.
  
   AHEAD OF THE LOW...INCREASING SLY FLOW WILL BRING LOW TO MID 60 F
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE
   BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT. THIS FRONT WILL STRETCH
   ROUGHLY FROM NRN AR EWD INTO TN...LIFTING SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME INTO
   SRN MO...SRN IL...AND WRN KY.
  
   AFTER 00Z...THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NEWD ACROSS THE
   OHIO VALLEY...WITH CONTINUED STRONG FORCING AND VERY STRONG WIND
   FIELDS.
  
   ...ERN OK/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE TN AND OH VALLEY...
   A COMPLEX...AND RAPIDLY CHANGING SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD ON THU. WHILE
   SOME SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL EXIST...A SIGNIFICANT
   SEVERE THREAT APPEARS LIKELY REGARDLESS OF FINER SCALE DETAILS WHICH
   WILL BECOME CLEARER IN LATER OUTLOOKS.
  
   STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...WITH MAINLY A HAIL THREAT...MAY BE ONGOING
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK THU MORNING. THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE
   ELEVATED. ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL BE ONGOING FROM SERN KS ACROSS MO
   AND INTO NRN AR AND THE LOWER OH RIVER VALLEY ALONG AND N OF A WARM
   FRONT...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.
  
   THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON ALONG
   THE OK/AR BORDER FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO SWRN MO AS COOLING ALOFT
   OVERSPREADS A TIGHTENING DRYLINE SURGE BENEATH SUBSTANTIAL DCVA
   ALOFT. WHILE PROGGED INSTABILITY FIELDS ARE NOT STRONG...THEY WILL
   BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND VERY STRONG FORCING
   FOR ASCENT. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
   STRUCTURES. ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR
   TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE LOCATION IS
   NOT PRECISELY KNOWN AT THIS TIME...AN ENHANCED TORNADO THREAT MAY
   EXIST ALONG THE JUST S OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK EWD ALONG THE WARM
   FRONT...WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  
  
   A SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE EVENING/EARLY
   MORNING HOURS AS FAR E AS SRN INDIANA AND CNTRL KY AS THE LOW
   CONTINUES TO DEEPEN.

Until we know the extent of this expected threat (I wanna say "outbreak" but that might be too extreme), 30% probability seems a little overboard. By this time tomorrow we should be able to view the hail, wind and tornado probabilities. This appears to be another squall line event. Anyone who pays attention to the weather should be able to remember Dec. 31st, 2010 in the same region. That was a very small risk that turned out to be a monster, but that goes to show that this could be a dud, or it could be worse than expected. Time to monitor CAPE values for this area on Thursday and see how high they shoot.

[Downlinerz2]

   This chart shows some interesting features too for this storm.  Will have to watch the track.  According to the TV weather man at noon he says most models show the Low taking a more southerly track, but it could also go up into the Ohio Valley.
     Mark

[IMADreamer]

You've just jinxed it.  lol

[Chris H.]

SPC AC 230655
  
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
  
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL AND ERN AR...NRN
   MS...AND WRN TN...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX EWD
   INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER LOW...NOW OFF THE WRN COAST OF BAJA CA...WILL BE
   PICKED UP BY THE SRN STREAM JET AND WILL EMERGE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
   BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT
   MOVES FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR BY 00Z...AND CONTINUING
   NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. INCREASING
   SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 39.50 DEGREE PARALLEL
   AT 00Z.
  
   ...ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO KY AND TN...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SRN OK
   THU MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING
   DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...AND
   PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.  OTHER STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM KS EWD INTO THE
   OH VALLEY WHERE A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND
   NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
  
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK
   BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND
   THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF
   TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD
   ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS
   EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT.
   TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
  
   A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF
   THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
   OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS
   PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN
   A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
  

This…doesn't look good. Who's chasing tomorrow?

[BigOkie]

SPC AC 230655
  
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CST WED FEB 23 2011
  
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
  
   ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRPL AND ERN AR...NRN
   MS...AND WRN TN...
  
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN OK AND NERN TX EWD
   INTO THE TN AND LOWER OH VALLEYS...
  
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A POTENT UPPER LOW...NOW OFF THE WRN COAST OF BAJA CA...WILL BE
   PICKED UP BY THE SRN STREAM JET AND WILL EMERGE INTO SRN HIGH PLAINS
   BY THU MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN AS IT
   MOVES FROM NWRN TX/WRN OK EWD INTO NRN AR BY 00Z...AND CONTINUING
   NEWD ALONG THE OH RIVER OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRI MORNING. INCREASING
   SLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL AID IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT ACROSS THE
   WARM SECTOR WHICH WILL BE BOUNDED ON THE N END BY A WARM FRONT
   EXTENDING EWD FROM THE LOW...ROUGHLY ALONG THE 39.50 DEGREE PARALLEL
   AT 00Z.
  
   ...ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS AR AND INTO KY AND TN...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS NWRN TX INTO SRN OK
   THU MORNING NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND NEAR THE DEVELOPING
   DRYLINE/COLD FRONT SURGE. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL...AND
   PERHAPS GUSTY WINDS.  OTHER STORMS WILL EXTEND FROM KS EWD INTO THE
   OH VALLEY WHERE A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL ENHANCE LIFT ALONG AND
   NEAR THE WARM FRONT.
  
   THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INTENSIFY DURING THE DAY FROM N TX INTO ERN OK
   BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH A CONTINUED HAIL AND INCREASING SEVERE WIND
   THREAT. VEERING LOW LEVEL WINDS MAY TEMPER THE INITIAL THREAT OF
   TORNADOES. THE MOST DANGEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...FIRST ACROSS AR THEN SPREADING NEWD
   ACROSS NRN MS AND WRN TN. HERE...850 MB FLOW IN EXCESS OF 60 KT IS
   EXPECTED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEEPENING LOW...WITH ENHANCED LOW
   LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE ALONG THE RESIDUAL WARM FRONT.
   TORNADOES...A FEW POSSIBLY STRONG...AND PARTICULARLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY BETWEEN 00Z-06Z.
  
   A CRITICAL COMPONENT TO THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE THE PLACEMENT OF
   THE WARM FRONT THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AS IT WILL DETERMINE THE TRACK
   OF THE SURFACE LOW. CURRENTLY...THE MORE NRN ECMWF SOLUTION IS
   PREFERRED...BUT A SWD SHIFT IN FUTURE MODEL GUIDANCE COULD RESULT IN
   A COMPRESSION OF THE NRN EDGE OF THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES IN
   SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS.
  

This…doesn't look good. Who's chasing tomorrow?

Doubt I'll be chasing as the latest HWO is telling us to stay alert. As spotters we dont chase typically.

[WeatherHost]

I've been expecting a Moderate.  Won't be surprised to see a High.

Don't get me started again on 'chasers'.

[BigOkie]

I only chase with guys I've chased with before. Both of them are NWS trained and used to chase for two of the big three local stations weather guys. That means they have the toys.

[skysummit]

I don't think we'll see a High Risk. Honestly, I'm a little surprised about the upgrade to Moderate, but that's just me.  Who knows....with this being the first severe event of the season, it could bust either way.

[Chris H.]

Hmm…so is it Friday, or tomorrow? I'm thinking tomorrow, but the SPC is thinking two days in a row in the same area. 


<See attached>

[Chris H.]

Part I:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0012.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 12
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   410 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          SOUTHERN AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
          WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST TEXAS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING FROM 410 AM UNTIL 1100 AM CST.
   
   HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
   MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
   
   THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
   STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES NORTH OF
   BIG SPRING TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTH OF CHANDLER OKLAHOMA.  FOR A
   COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
   UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).
   
   REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
   DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
   
   DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER W CNTRL AND NW TX
   THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING AS SMALL SCALE IMPULSE AHEAD OF LARGER
   SCALE UPR TROUGH NOW OVER NM CONTINUES NE AND FURTHER INTERACTS WITH
   WRN EDGE OF PW AXIS.  CLOUD-LAYER WIND PROFILES AND STEEP MID-LVL
   LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A THREAT FOR SVR HAIL WITH LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS
   
   AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
   TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
   KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
   MOTION VECTOR 24035.
   

[Chris H.]

Vance AFB, OK radar is down...grrr...there is some impressive activity in that area...stretching up to Wichita.


Near the Frederick, OK radar, Svr T-Storm Warning:

WUUS54 KOUN 241142
SVROUN
OKC065-141-TXC197-487-241230-
/O.NEW.KOUN.SV.W.0001.110224T1142Z-110224T1230Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
542 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN HARDEMAN COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
  NORTHWESTERN WILBARGER COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
  NORTHWESTERN TILLMAN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 630 AM CST

* AT 542 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM NEAR CHILLICOTHE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 65 MPH.

HAZARDS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...
WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH...

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE CHILLICOTHE...DAVIDSON...ELMER...
  FARGO...FREDERICK...HEADRICK...HESS...HOLLISTER...HUMPHREYS...
  MANITOU...ODELL...TIPTON AND VERNON.

LAT...LON 3466 9913 3461 9900 3459 9900 3460 9897
      3453 9883 3451 9883 3451 9879 3442 9865
      3407 9946 3431 9960
TIME...MOT...LOC 1142Z 233DEG 57KT 3430 9943

$$
WR

[IMADreamer]

looking to be a long day in the south.  Still a moderate risk. 

[Bunty]

Like I said in an earlier post, I don't put a lot of stock in the Convectives further out than day 2.  It was just last year these extended products were put into the mainstream; before that, they were always considered 'experimental'.

Shore these up tomorrow for Thursday, and I'll start breaking out the camcorders.  Not going to get excited just yet.

How I wish I lived in Oklahoma. You're much closer to the action than I am.

Yeah, we got around 1.43" of rain from a thunderstorm around dawn.  It was much needed.

[Chris H.]

Like I said in an earlier post, I don't put a lot of stock in the Convectives further out than day 2.  It was just last year these extended products were put into the mainstream; before that, they were always considered 'experimental'.

Shore these up tomorrow for Thursday, and I'll start breaking out the camcorders.  Not going to get excited just yet.

How I wish I lived in Oklahoma. You're much closer to the action than I am.

Yeah, we got around 1.43" of rain from a thunderstorm around dawn.  It was much needed.

Kind of witnessed that on the radar this morning. Kansas had a CF of storms that became one big snow/rain band.

Part II:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0013.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1125 AM CST THU FEB 24 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS
          PARTS OF NORTHERN LOUISIANA
          PASTS OF SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA
          PARTS OF NORTHEAST TEXAS
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1125 AM UNTIL
   600 PM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHWEST OF
   RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHREVEPORT
   LOUISIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN NUMBER ACROSS ERN OK
   INTO NERN TX AHEAD OF STRONG S/WV TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW.
    WITH AIR MASS NOW FAVORABLY UNSTABLE AND NEARLY
   UNCAPPED...POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
   WILL INCREASE EWD ACROSS THE WATCH THRU THE AFTERNOON.  E/W WARM
   FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL AR WILL BE AN AREA FOR ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
   SHEAR/SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.  TORNADOS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   SUPERCELL THAT DEVELOPS.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.

[IMADreamer]

New Tornado watch likely centered around Memphis.

  MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0126
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0212 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN AR...NRN MS...WRN/MIDDLE TN...WRN KY
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY
   
   VALID 242012Z - 242145Z
   
   WARM FRONT IS GRADUALLY LIFTING NWD ACROSS NERN AR/SRN TN WITH
   SUBSTANTIAL BREAKS IN BOUNDARY LAYER CLOUDS CONTRIBUTING TO
   STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEPENING CU FIELD.  LATEST
   SFC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOW IS BEGINNING TO DEEPEN OVER NWRN AR AND
   THIS FEATURE SHOULD PROGRESS ACROSS THE BOOT HEEL OF MO LATER THIS
   EVENING BEFORE LIFTING INTO WRN KY.  IT APPEARS FURTHER RECOVERY IS
   POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF SFC LOW BUT ONGOING
   CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION SHOULD LIMIT GREATER INSTABILITY FROM
   DEVELOPING INTO KY.  EVEN SO...VERY STRONG SHEAR WILL ENCOURAGE
   ROTATING UPDRAFTS AND SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED...ALONG WITH
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ALONG/SOUTH OF RETREATING WARM FRONT.
   
   ..DARROW.. 02/24/2011
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OHX...HUN...PAH...MEG...JAN...LZK...

[Chris H.]

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0014.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 14
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   235 PM CST THU FEB 24 2011
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
   TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
   
          PARTS OF EASTERN ARKANSAS
          SMALL PART OF NORTHEAST LOUISIANA
          SMALL PART OF SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI
          MUCH OF NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN AND PARTS OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE
   
   EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 235 PM UNTIL
   1000 PM CST.
   
   TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
   GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
   AREAS.
   
   THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
   MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
   DYERSBURG TENNESSEE TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF GREENVILLE
   MISSISSIPPI.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
   ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
   
   REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
   TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
   AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
   THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
   AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
   
   OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 13...
   
   DISCUSSION...INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL AR IN RESPONSE TO
   STRONG S/W TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE W.  E/W WARM FRONT STILL
   MOVING NWD THRU NERN AR/WRN TN WITH WARM SECTOR AIR MASS NOW
   UNSTABLE AND NEARLY UNCAPPED.  WITH VERY STRONG SHEAR PROFILES AND
   LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE POTENTIAL FOR SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THRU THE EVENING.  POTENTIAL FOR
   MORE DISCRETE STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WHICH WOULD
   LEAD TO GREATER THREAT OF TORNADOES PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF A MORE
   QLCS/WIND DAMAGE THREAT THAT IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE BY THIS EVENING.
   
   AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
   SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
   WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
   500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24045.
   

[Chris H.]

Oooh looky! A tornado warning!

[IMADreamer]

was just about to post that.  lol.  the excitement begins.

[Chris H.]

Same warning, storm looks a bit like a hook now.