General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics > Long-Range U.S. Forecasts

La Nina - Climate Change

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SamStam:
I'm new to this forum ... Hope I posted in the right place.

As Global Warming/Climate Change continues would it be logical to expect more occurrences of La Nina?

waiukuweather:
the strongest El Nino's follow a pattern of the sun spot activity (i.e every 11 years)
and so the strongest La nina's also at times can follow a similar mirror trend..ie during solar minimums, like there is now, you can get strong la Nina's
(i.e colder than normal eastern pacific waters)
the sun will ramp up again with solar activity and sun spots over the next 4 to 5 years
and so expect the pattern to swing back to more frequent El Nino events and some strong ones too over the coming next 5 years
even with the current solar minimum and La Nina, global temperatures have still been breaking warm records, due to the background global warming offset
so with the up coming swing back to El Nino's in the next 5 years and the sun back to stronger activity, then more global heat records will get broken over the next 5 years big time
that is my prediction
write it down

SamStam:
Thanks.

Is is possible that continued Global Warming could disrupt this process and result in a permanent La Nina?

waiukuweather:
I don't see why
the southern hemisphere oscillation is a change/swing in the water temperature from average in the eastern pacific
the colder than normal temperatures are due to up welling from deeper
and results in good fishing off Peru, hence the name girl child instead of boy child
and so the Peru fisherman knew about this cyclic change for a long time
global warming is like an offset
and so it means as the oceans also warm, then to get an el nino, the water has to warm even more above 'normal'  to affect the atmosheric patterns/drivers (warmer water means more rising air, colder water means more sinking air, and since its such a large area of water, it affects a large area of weather patterns)
what will need to change as global warming continues is the 'normal' that is used to determine if above a threshold to be called an el nino will need to be changed (and so the same for la nina...i.e it wont need to be as cold...as the whole ocean warms..to have an effect)

SamStam:
Thanks.

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