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Different forecast models within Windy
OldAlaskaGuy:
I have noticed there is a big difference in ECMWF, GFS, NAM, and ICON for local weather. Example on one, today's forecast is a Wintery mix current, another one nothing for the area, one shows this for tonight, one for tomorrow thru the next day. Which one would be more accurate for my locality. Should I track these for a while and determine what one is the most accurate? :|
Bashy:
Hi, i think the ECMWF and ICON are European models, GFS is worldwide and NAM is the North American Mesoscale, take from that as you will, but you basically answered it yourself, you should follow them and try to see a pattern, ie, if one keeps favouring one outcome over another maybe the one to keep a closer eye on. I think this is where the Ensembles are useful though i still don't fully understand a lot of it.
For me, here in the UK, i follow the GFS, GEFS and ECMWF for the most part
Have you seen wxcharts.com?
ocala:
Try the HRRR. It's updated every hour but only goes out 18 hours.
davidmc36:
--- Quote from: ocala on December 01, 2021, 04:17:32 PM ---Try the HRRR. It's updated every hour but only goes out 18 hours.
--- End quote ---
Isn't anything further into the future just Witchcraft?
One of the biggest trends I see in forecasts is the 5 day may be reasonably accurate as to content but it usually ends up not happening until the next day. The 5 day forecast is really the 6th day forecast by the time it happens. I don't think you can make final decision for a weather dependant event much more than 24 hours in advance.
I use HRRR a lot.
ocala:
--- Quote from: davidmc36 on December 01, 2021, 05:36:03 PM ---
--- Quote from: ocala on December 01, 2021, 04:17:32 PM ---Try the HRRR. It's updated every hour but only goes out 18 hours.
--- End quote ---
Isn't anything further into the future just Witchcraft?
One of the biggest trends I see in forecasts is the 5 day may be reasonably accurate as to content but it usually ends up not happening until the next day. The 5 day forecast is really the 6th day forecast by the time it happens. I don't think you can make final decision for a weather dependant event much more than 24 hours in advance.
I use HRRR a lot.
--- End quote ---
Agree 100% The rest is just fictional weather entertainment. However I will give the folks at the TPC kudo's for their track guidance. They have become very good tracking tropical disturbances.
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