Note: trouble with registration? See this for more info.
0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0343 AM CST WED FEB 21 2007 VALID 241200Z - 011200Z A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AND CLOSED-OFF LOW WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS SATURDAY AND SWING NEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. DYNAMICS AND VERTICAL SHEAR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE VERY STRONG WHICH COUPLED WITH ADEQUATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY FROM THE ERN PLAINS EWD TO THE TN/OH VALLEYS. A SQUALL-LINE SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS THE PLAINS EARLY IN THE DAY 4 PERIOD AND THE LINE WILL LIKELY CONTAIN SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES. OTHER SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE LINE AND NEAR THE UPPER-LOW CENTER ESPECIALLY AS SFC TEMPS WARM LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE SPECIFIC TIMING OF THE UPPER-TROUGH AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE RETURN STILL REMAIN UNCERTAIN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. TORNADOES/WIND DAMAGE AND LARGE HAIL WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS. ALTHOUGH WEAKENING OF THE SQUALL-LINE MAY OCCUR LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR IN THE MORNING ON SUNDAY...REGENERATION OF THE LINE SHOULD OCCUR BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE THREAT SUNDAY WILL LIKELY OCCUR IN THE TN AND OH VALLEYS WITH LOCALLY CONCENTRATED AREAS OF SEVERE WEATHER. A SEVERE THREAT MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN NRN AND CNTRL FL MONDAY WITH THE THREAT AREA SHIFTING SWD ACROSS FL ON TUESDAY. WHETHER THIS OCCURS IS DEPENDENT ON MANY FACTORS AND UNCERTAINTY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK IS HIGHER ATTM. ..BROYLES.. 02/21/2007