Topic: Asinine Decision by the NWS

[HailHunter]

I am currently monitoring a line of strong to severe thunderstorms pushing south from Tennessee. These storms have spawned tornado warnings within the last hour, and currently there are active severe thunderstorm warnings within the line. Yet, the National Weather Service has seen fit to allow the severe thunderstorm watch in effect for the majority of eastern Tennessee to expire.

This is a fantastic illustration of the problem I have with the NWS, and why I feel that the group is in dire need of a vast overhaul.

[HailHunter]

Well that's a way to make me eat my words...a new severe thunderstorm watch has just been issued covering an even bigger area of the region....   

It still needs an overhaul though

[Downlinerz2]

   I too have been watching those storms.  There sure is a gorgeous outflow boundary approaching the Memphis radar (KNQA). 

[HailHunter]

Now, I don't feel that bad anymore. A tornado warning was put into place for several counties in Arkansas...after the new severe thunderstorm watch was allowed to expire. And here I was getting ready to let them off the hook...

[port1]

   Might have something to do with NWS waiting for the Severe Storms Prediction Center in Norman, Oklahoma to take action.
I myself have seen our local Office of Emergency Management authorities contact Norman, Oklahoma and direct them to look at specific radar in our region and take action!
Keep in mind, too that there's only a few NWS meteorologists at their consoles in your local office watching the storms.  They are overworked!
When I visited my local office (which is beautiful and well equipped) I was surprised at how few folks actually do the forecasting and oversight.  They're very good at what they do, but they have a lot on their plates.  Very dedicated to their profession.  We're fortunate to have such a group of professionals. If I hadn't made that visit, I never would have understood. 

Henry

[ocala]

I agree with Henry here.
I think you are being too hard on them. Are they perfect, by no means. They can only go by what the radar says. They don't have the luxury to stay focused on one area. They have to monitor the whole CWA.

That being said, I still think the forecasters in the Jacksonville office couldn't forecast nightfall but I have seen them issue afternoon discussions where they say it will be brief because there is too much severe weather going on.

In a perfect world there would be several people monitoring severe weather with communication with spotters in the field. That's not going to happen. Most of the time they are right on top of things.
Just because that  line was producing severe weather didn't mean it would continue. The atmospheric parameters could have been forecasted to change and they may have been waiting to issue a new storm watch until they were confident the severe weather would continue.

As you know many variables affect the weather. It's the only job where you can be wrong 60% of the time and still be considered doing a good job.
 

[mackbig]

Wrong... add Stock Analysts to that list of occupations. 

Andrew

As you know many variables affect the weather. It's the only job where you can be wrong 60% of the time and still be considered doing a good job.
 

[jrabbott1]

Wrong... add Stock Analysts to that list of occupations. 

Andrew

As you know many variables affect the weather. It's the only job where you can be wrong 60% of the time and still be considered doing a good job.
 

When listening to the radio each day, I think you can add record executives to that list, too. 

[ocala]

Wrong... add Stock Analysts to that list of occupations. 

Andrew

As you know many variables affect the weather. It's the only job where you can be wrong 60% of the time and still be considered doing a good job.
 

Lose a little money lately Andrew.

[mackbig]

no, well yes, but the whole market did... I am in that business, different side, but similar.  I dont do too many individual stocks anymore, some big oil and banks (Cdn banks were, are still and will always be blue chip)) but mostly ETF's.....

My favourite research quote was about a "little" Canadian company named Nortel (was biggest in Canada by market cap in 2000)  "if it was a deal at $124.00, its a deal at $70.00"  Might have been reiterated in the $30 range.   Traded down to $0.43.  Rebounded a bit , but then filed for bankruptcy in jan 2009.

Andrew

Lose a little money lately Andrew.

[HailHunter]

Honestly, I don't think I am being too hard on them. When it comes to forecasting severe weather they need to be on their toes at all times and if they can't do that or are understaffed or whatever then there needs to be some type of overhaul. However, I don't know how difficult it is, no matter how understaffed any office is, to make the decision to leave a watch area in place while active warnings are in place.

That's my biggest beef is that they pull the trigger on the "all clear" way too quick, and seem to be slow to put out severe weather forecasts.

I have seen a family friend lose his life as a result of a false all clear before, and it has hacked me off to this day. Though, I think I should specifiy that it is the NWS Memphis office that has me really peeved. The night of that tornado, a forecaster from the Jackson office sent them an update alerting them to the fact that there was no reason to send out an all clear and even informed them of new super cell development. Memphis ignored it until after midnight.

[ocala]

I can see your point.
You already have a bias against the Memphis office so nothing I say would change that.
But, we are human.
I'm surprised that tidbit about Jackson contacting the Memphis office got out. I would assume in a tragedy like that that would be kept quiet.
Did anyone lose their job because of that? 

[Downlinerz2]

   Very sorry to hear about your family friend.  I do hope and pray that no other members of this forum have to go thru such a loss in the future.  It is a very heavy responsibility that the NWS has.  Life/death and severe injury hang in the balance and it takes a special person to accept that kind of responsibility.  I will restrict myself to our local NWS office and say thanks to them for serving our community .  The NWS office in Toledo does a good job and always seems to issue watches and warnings in a timely fashion.  I hope they will keep on doing a good job and that they will always be looking at ways to improve the accuracy of their decisions.
               Mark

[port1]

no, well yes, but the whole market did... I am in that business, different side, but similar.  I dont do too many individual stocks anymore, some big oil and banks (Cdn banks were, are still and will always be blue chip)) but mostly ETF's.....

My favourite research quote was about a "little" Canadian company named Nortel (was biggest in Canada by market cap in 2000)  "if it was a deal at $124.00, its a deal at $70.00"  Might have been reiterated in the $30 range.   Traded down to $0.43.  Rebounded a bit , but then filed for bankruptcy in jan 2009.

Andrew

Lose a little money lately Andrew.

Exactly the reason the IP Telephony system we were ready to purchase for the buildings I manage was scrapped!  We went with Cisco, and those instruments are being installed now.  Amazing! 
Sorry for the off topic reply...couldn't resist.

Henry

[WeatherHost]

The expiration of a watch or warning is not an all clear.  Watches are issued by the SPC, warnings are issued by the nearest WFO.  They both use their own criteria and the parameters can vary between WFOs.

[blackjack52]

I understand all too well. Unfortunately, in the business where lives hang in the balance, there always has to be a human. It's the training and professionalism that distinguishes the good from the bad, and their sups.

I was watching that line, as it was heading for us. I soon relaxed when the cap didn't lift and storms started collapsing. I watched and waited for the OFB.

[Downlinerz2]

The expiration of a watch or warning is not an all clear.  Watches are issued by the SPC, warnings are issued by the nearest WFO.  They both use their own criteria and the parameters can vary between WFOs.

    Thank you for pointing this out.  Seems like I knew that at one time or other but I had totally forgotten it .  It is a small thing but important! 

[HailHunter]

Unfortunately I cannot find the hard copies of the research I did, but there was no cover up or anything like that. All of the information I found was in the NWS archives that I cannot find for nothing online now. All I can tell you from memory is the following:

The event was from March 1st, 1997

Severe weather was forecast on Friday February 28, 1997

No severe weather materialized in our area during the afternoon or evening, and the tornado watch was allowed to expire at 8:00pm.

An NWS meteorologist in Jackson issued a statement noting that a new tornado watch box needed to be re-issued as they were starting to notice evidence of potential super cell thunderstorms developing in central Mississippi.

At 10:00pm no news broadcast in Tupelo, Memphis, or Columbus had this information, and all stations gave different variations of the call clear.

A watch was not put into effect until 12:32am (at least three hours after the NWS Jackson report had been issued.)

A tornado warning was issued to the southeast of Oxford at about 12:45am and between that time and 1:15am the tornado had touched down and began doing F1 damage along a path between several small towns. My parents had a family friend who lived in a little town to the southeast of here called Randolph. His mobile home was obliterated while he slept. More than likely he never knew what hit him.

Somebody dropped the ball big time, and I could be mistaken about it being Memphis (I might have my memory clouded due to the litany of mistakes they have made in the last few years.) However, I do know for a fact that an NWS meteorologist put out a statement noting that a new tornado watch should have been issued shortly after the previous watch had ended, and nobody bothered to listen to that person. God bless that guy or girl for trying though.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1997_Benton,_Arkansas_tornado_outbreak

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/summary4.html

[GvlSkywarnNCS]

I agree with Henry here.
I think you are being too hard on them....
 

And I'll agree too. In my local NWS WFO they have to cover a 38 county area with several distinctly different weather patterns and they do a very darn good job of it with only a handful of people. If anything my office is a bit too careful- we get more Tornado Warnings than I think we should because they're having to base these on reading their Doppler radar- we don't have enough 'eyes on the ground' for confirmation but we're out here working on getting that for them. If I were in their shoes I'd likely do the same as they do- better safe than sorry. Severe weather is serious business and the GSP NWS WFO guys approach it that way- Kudos to them!

I am sympathetic to the loss of any life due to a missed warning, but we're responsible for our own selves and knowing something about weather (and the rest of life) I do a lot of my own looking and all of my own deciding. If I see a potential danger I act on it no matter what anyone else thinks of it- I've seen too much in my 50 years to blindly believe it when anyone tells me anything's safe- that attitide has saved my bacon a number of times.

Ben Franklin said: "Some people are weatherwise but most people are otherwise". Let us learn from all this something of old Ben's wisdom and go on with life keeping an eye on things for ourselves.

Phil KG4FQG

[HailHunter]

Unfortunately, that type of mentality is not prevalent in Mississippi. I have long said that it is sad that a tenth of an inch of snow is enough to shut down schools, but a tornado watch or severe weather development doesn't even draw a look.

Not to mention, most people in this area (which this is Oxford, so we do get a lot of people outside of MS) don't even understand the very basic weather stuff. Just last year I chastised my brother for thinking that a tornado warning meant that there was only a chance a tornado could be coming. I explained to him that a warning indicated a tornado had been spotted or was appearing to develop, and as far as chances go it was not one to be taken lightly.

Maybe I am being too hard on them, but I just cannot get over all of the mistakes they have made in the last few years. I know they have a lot of area to work with, but it's not difficult to issue a severe weather statement or a hazardous weather outlook. I remember a severe weather event developing. The NWS out of Jackson had given a forty-eight hour heads up with new HWOs every six hours updating people on the potential for severe weather. The Memphis NWS did not issue an outlook until the first severe thunderstorm warnings had been issued.

I do respect the hard work all National Weather Service personnel do, but I do believe the system needs to be overhauled so it can work better to safeguard the public. 

[racenet]

I do respect the hard work all National Weather Service personnel do, but I do believe the system needs to be overhauled so it can work better to safeguard the public. 

You can't safeguard those who refuse to listen or understand, no matter how good the system you have in place is. It just isn't going to happen. In this day and age, way to many people have the mindset that it is not their responsibility to look after themselves. That someone else will to it for them. That, in short, is the means to an end. In some cases, a tragic end. Sad, but true. We all need to understand that we are responsible, not someone else, for our own well being.



Bob

[HailHunter]

Here is a great example of why I get so cranked at the NWS Memphis offices. Jackson, Birmingham, Nashville, and all of the others around us have put out special weather statements and hazardous weather outlooks in anticipation of heavy rains and strong thunderstorms in association with Tropical Storm Claudette's remnants moving into our region tonight and tomorrow.

Yet, there is no type of forecast or anything special having been released by the Memphis offices. Considering some folks maybe concerned over what type of weather pattern to expect the next day or two, you would think that they would have issued one as soon as the path was predicted to move towards Alabama, Mississippi and Tennessee.

This is just simple stuff that does not take a lot of manpower to get done, and the Jackson offices had their HWO up and posted yesterday evening. It is now 1:45pm and the NWS out of Memphis still has not posted any special statements concerning how our weather may or may not be impacted by Claudette.

[GvlSkywarnNCS]

It's entirely possible they haven't posted anything because they aren't sure of the details of what might happen yet. It's not every day that the remnants of a Tropical Storm bring themselves to Memphis. Over here the NWS often doesn't update the short term forecast page well for my county- I've seen it over 2 days old before  I can understand this during severe weather happening or coming in but the instance I speak of here was after the weather cleared with nothing coming behind it. This doesn't bother me much since I don't depend on their forecasts so long as they get the hazardous stuff right- which these guys do.

I understand your anguish but perhaps you would get better results by making inquiries starting at their office and working your way up the ladder until the situation is resolved. Talking about it here isn't going to fix the situation(but we're here to listen anyway  )

Phil

[HailHunter]

I've never actually thought about complaining about it. I guess I thought that they get enough complaints from people who actually consider a "partly cloudy" forecast to be faulty once a beam of sunlight comes through their windows.

I'm glad everyone listens on here, I just come to vent to people who can understand the situation. Appreciate it.

[blackjack52]

Our WWA sends out everything, even <.1" rain and some wind.

Message summary: National weather service doppler radar indicated scattered showers moving across the tennessee valley. These showers...moving east 25 to 30 mph will bring upwards of one tenth of an inch of rain across portions of the area through 1045 am. Brief gusty winds and a rumble or two of thunder may accompany the heavier showers.