Topic: Rough night down south

[NoQuitters]

I don't think I've ever seen this high of intensity on the GOES image before. The GR3 radar is pretty impressive as well.

[NoQuitters]

Look's like it may be another long night for some folks.



PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0529 AM CST TUE NOV 14 2006
   
   ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...
   
   THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE
   
          SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
          NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA
          WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
   
   SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK AREA...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHERN ARKANSAS
   SOUTH TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST
   
   A VERY STRONG JET STREAM DISTURBANCE...WITH HIGH LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
   ABOVE 130 MPH...WILL SWEEP RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES LATER TODAY...AND INTO OKLAHOMA...NORTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   THE DISTURBANCE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
   THAT WILL TRACK EAST ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING TO NEAR
   MEMPHIS BY DAWN WEDNESDAY.  THE LOW WILL DRAW WARM AND UNSEASONABLY
   HUMID AIR NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BENEATH THE INCREASING
   WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT.  
   
   AS THE WARM HUMID AIR ENCOUNTERS THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED WARM AND
   COLD FRONTS...THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY WILL FORM OVER PARTS OF
   ARKANSAS...LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI.  WHILE SOME STORMS COULD
   APPEAR AS EARLY AS THIS AFTERNOON...MORE WIDESPREAD AND INTENSE
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   
   GIVEN THE VERY STRONG WINDS AND RICH MOISTURE AVAILABLE TO THESE
   STORMS...AND THE UPLIFT PROVIDED BY THE INTENSIFYING LOW...
   SUPERCELL STORMS APPEAR LIKELY.  SOME OF THESE ROTATING STORMS MAY
   PRODUCE STRONG TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HIGH WIND AND HAIL GIVEN THE
   FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL BE PRESENT.
   
   THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER
   SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER
   RADIO FOR POSSIBLE WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.
   
   ..CORFIDI.. 11/14/2006

[ocala]

Thats suppose to come through my area Wednesday night. SPC currently has the area under a slight risk.
The last front that came through a F1 tornado touch down just north of Orlando.

[weathergirl]

Environment Canada has issued a Special Weather Statement for this same system.  Looks like my area may be in for some heavy rain.

[ocala]

Could be an interesting night.


IT APPEARS ALL THE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING TOGETHER FOR A SEVERE
WEATHER EVENT ACROSS JAX CWA TONIGHT. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
GOOD WRT RUN-TO-RUN CONTINUITY WITH THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...
WITH STRONG FORCING/DYNAMICS SPREADING INTO THE AREA. THE MAIN
CONCERN WAS DE-STABILIZATION OF THE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO RECENT BOUT
OF COOL WEATHER...BUT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE ALLOWED
LOCAL AIR MASS TO QUICKLY MODIFY. THUS...HIGH DEGREE OF CONFIDENCE
THAT AT LEAST STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THIS
EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL...AND POSSIBLE
TORNADOES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO PUSH
INTO OUR WESTERN-MOST COUNTIES (I.E., AREAS WEST OF I-75 CORRIDOR
OF NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND WEST OF U.S. HIGHWAY 221/441 CORRIDORS
OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SQUALL LINE
LIKELY ENTERING OUR WESTERN-MOST ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. ALL
ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EAST OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...WITH SQUALL LINE
EXITING INTO THE ATLANTIC WATERS WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

[mikejeep]

Now we're getting in on the action up here in New England as well.  Not only is our overnight low predicted to barely dip below 60 degrees (is it July or November?!), they are predicting up to 4" of rain and some strong winds overnight too!

Where oh where is our first snowflake... nothing even close yet!

-Mike

[ncpilot]

Not too far from me:

http://www.wect.com/Global/story.asp?S=5690087

http://www.wwaytv3.com/Global/link.asp?L=215479

[mhweather]

Yeah, I thought about you pilot, I knew you were down in that area.  Was the general weather around Wilmington really bad when that happened?

[ncpilot]

Surprisingly maybe, the weather wasn't bad in my neighborhood... but I think that can be really typical of tornadic conditions... I got maybe .17 of rain all day. The winds were gusty, but if you look at the radar from about 3am, there was a very nice red line moving towards us, but it rapidly broke up and headed more northward...

You're always lucky when the bad weather misses you...