Author Topic: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day  (Read 6218 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« on: April 27, 2012, 10:33:22 AM »
SPC has gone Moderate Risk today for most of eastern KS, and extreme western MO.  Gonna be active if the early morning stuff can clear out.


You guys get your bitching about storm chasers out of the way before the action gets going later to day. 
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline Kmenz5

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • Foot's Forecast Kansas City Metro
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #1 on: April 27, 2012, 10:54:47 AM »
The morning clouds always worry me. Sometimes they clear like they are suppose to and sometimes they don't. I will be keeping my twitter and forecasting page updated today with any severe weather we have.
Forecaster Kristen - Foot's Forecast - twitter @Menz_Wx

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #2 on: April 27, 2012, 11:14:49 AM »
Yeah, the moderate risk area looks pretty socked in with clouds right now but it's plenty early still.  I'm not real confident about this outbreak but if it does clear out Katie bar the door.
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline Kmenz5

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • Foot's Forecast Kansas City Metro
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #3 on: April 27, 2012, 11:38:01 AM »
There is a pretty strong dryline of 20 degrees out by Dodge City. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/surface/displaySfc.php?region=ict&endDate=20120427&endTime=-1&duration=0
Forecaster Kristen - Foot's Forecast - twitter @Menz_Wx

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #4 on: April 27, 2012, 12:24:25 PM »
MD out

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0603
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1015 AM CDT FRI APR 27 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KS...FAR N-CNTRL OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY

VALID 271515Z - 271715Z

SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM ALONG EWD SURGING DRYLINE IN CNTRL KS TO
PERHAPS N-CNTRL OK BY EARLY AFTERNOON. STRONG LOW/DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST MODERATELY LARGE
BUOYANCY WILL LIKELY YIELD PRIMARY INITIAL THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND
TORNADOES. THE PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO WATCH ISSUANCE IS 95
PERCENT.

15Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A 996 MB CYCLONE AROUND 30 SE GLD WITH A
SLOWLY ADVANCING WARM FRONT ARCING SEWD TOWARDS THE OZARK PLATEAU
AND A SURGING DRYLINE EXTENDING SWD INTO WRN OK. SHOWERS AND TSTMS
HAVE BEEN PREVALENT NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT WITH ABUNDANT STRATUS IN
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR OVER MUCH OF KS. HOWEVER...STRONGER HEATING IS
OCCURRING IN NRN OK WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 70S AND CLOUD BREAKS APPEAR TO BE OCCURRING IN A NARROW
CORRIDOR FROM COMANCHE TO PAWNEE COUNTIES IN SWRN KS. MODIFIED 12Z
DDC RAOB AND MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT EVEN WITH MODEST
HEATING...THE STRENGTH OF THE FORCING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR MINIMAL
INHIBITION ALONG THE DRYLINE BY MIDDAY.

ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL SLYS HAVE COMMENCED WEAKENING WITH SRN EXTENT IN
THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR /PER TIME SERIES OF HAVILAND KS
PROFILER/...0-1 KM SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN AOA 15 KT WITH STRONGER
LOW-LEVEL SHEAR RELEGATED ALONG AND NE OF THE WARM FRONT. WITH
EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT AND MLCAPE EXPECTED TO APPROACH 2500
J/KG IN S-CNTRL KS/N-CNTRL OK...THIS SETUP WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
SUPERCELLS WITH THREATS OF LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES PRIMARILY IN
CNTRL KS.

..GRAMS.. 04/27/2012

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...

LAT...LON 39169987 39399982 39589935 39659873 39489790 38899712
38099678 36939674 36729711 36659744 36759810 36989874
37689902 38369933 39059982 39169987

Some signs things are starting to go already. 
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline cospringswx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4136
    • Colorado Springs Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #5 on: April 27, 2012, 01:44:33 PM »
Was overcast all morning. Rained .62  for 30 min from 1130-noon.  Now there is not a cloud in the sky. I'm in Hays Kansas.




Ryan 

Colorado Springs, CO
www.cospringsweather.com
Davis Vantage Vue
Weather Display Software
Amcrest HD IP Camera

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4745
    • WV Waterfalls
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #6 on: April 27, 2012, 02:02:04 PM »
Haha Jason, and great! I'll be ready to see some structure as soon as i get home! Just grab a bottle of root beer at the store, get my radars out, and hang out on the radar like a high school nerd should 8-) 8-)
Joe Fitzwater
Chief Meteorologist for WVNS-TV 59 in Beckley, WV

Work Page on Facebook -> www.facebook.com/meteojoe
Work Page on Twitter -> https://twitter.com/meteojoe
Waterfalls -> www.wvfalls.com

Offline Kmenz5

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • Foot's Forecast Kansas City Metro
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #7 on: April 27, 2012, 02:13:51 PM »
Was overcast all morning. Rained .62  for 30 min from 1130-noon.  Now there is not a cloud in the sky. I'm in Hays Kansas.

It's the calm before the storm ;) You are really at the edge of the risk area though.
Forecaster Kristen - Foot's Forecast - twitter @Menz_Wx

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #8 on: April 27, 2012, 02:24:11 PM »
I tell ya after the epicness that was the storm the other night here I'm kind of jazzed about the thought of some more in my area.  Of course I don't want there to be any damage or anything, which is what happened the other night.  No one got hurt.   Best kind of severe. 

So anyway, I'm wondering if we couldn't be looking at a nocturnal event for my area over night.  Signs are kind of pointing to that. 

Of course this is all contingent on something actually happening in KS today. 
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline cospringswx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4136
    • Colorado Springs Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #9 on: April 27, 2012, 02:24:25 PM »
Getting pretty windy here too (Normal for this area). Might get something here. I'm sitting at 74 at 1:23pm. Was 63 after the rain. Warmed up quick and the wind picked up.




Ryan 

Colorado Springs, CO
www.cospringsweather.com
Davis Vantage Vue
Weather Display Software
Amcrest HD IP Camera

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4745
    • WV Waterfalls
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #10 on: April 27, 2012, 02:33:21 PM »
Got some storms trying to get going just east of hays, and yes Jason I agree, if some convection can get going in kansas, then i would expect some night time storms for missouri and illinois

Haha im not home so I had to stick with a public radar lol #-o
Joe Fitzwater
Chief Meteorologist for WVNS-TV 59 in Beckley, WV

Work Page on Facebook -> www.facebook.com/meteojoe
Work Page on Twitter -> https://twitter.com/meteojoe
Waterfalls -> www.wvfalls.com

Offline Kmenz5

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 6
    • Foot's Forecast Kansas City Metro
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #11 on: April 27, 2012, 02:38:57 PM »
Tornado watch likely for central KS stretched to southeast KS. Will be issued between 2 and 4 PM. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0605.html
Forecaster Kristen - Foot's Forecast - twitter @Menz_Wx

Offline cospringswx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4136
    • Colorado Springs Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #12 on: April 27, 2012, 03:25:33 PM »




Ryan 

Colorado Springs, CO
www.cospringsweather.com
Davis Vantage Vue
Weather Display Software
Amcrest HD IP Camera

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #13 on: April 27, 2012, 04:47:50 PM »
My old hometown in Morris County is right in the middle of that watch box and there are no weather stations there to see what is going on.  The closest weather station is in Emporia.  I will be monitoring this situation for sure.

Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #14 on: April 27, 2012, 06:32:51 PM »
Well things are certainly going now.  One warning with some interesting storms in that line. 
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline cospringswx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4136
    • Colorado Springs Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #15 on: April 27, 2012, 06:39:30 PM »
My old hometown in Morris County is right in the middle of that watch box and there are no weather stations there to see what is going on.  The closest weather station is in Emporia.  I will be monitoring this situation for sure.

What town?




Ryan 

Colorado Springs, CO
www.cospringsweather.com
Davis Vantage Vue
Weather Display Software
Amcrest HD IP Camera

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3649
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #16 on: April 27, 2012, 07:30:25 PM »
I know they happen out there, but for some reason I just don't associate Colorado with Tornadoes:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5igZo5B8B_dc3G2UDn-6_PuHY6cZg?docId=d85aaa09f4b84578a7d6585fd66724c6


Offline IMADreamer

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 594
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #17 on: April 27, 2012, 07:34:59 PM »
Well I don't want to call it too early but it looks like this one got dry slotted.  I'm thinking we aren't going to see much else.
Hello my name is Jason, I am a Meteorologist, farmer, and auto journalist.
www.infinite-garage.com

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #18 on: April 27, 2012, 07:36:38 PM »
My old hometown in Morris County is right in the middle of that watch box and there are no weather stations there to see what is going on.  The closest weather station is in Emporia.  I will be monitoring this situation for sure.

What town?

Council Grove

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4745
    • WV Waterfalls
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #19 on: April 27, 2012, 07:43:07 PM »
Not really seeing any more formations either.
Joe Fitzwater
Chief Meteorologist for WVNS-TV 59 in Beckley, WV

Work Page on Facebook -> www.facebook.com/meteojoe
Work Page on Twitter -> https://twitter.com/meteojoe
Waterfalls -> www.wvfalls.com

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #20 on: April 27, 2012, 07:52:29 PM »
Hmmm..I just saw a couple of reports show up in the Spotter Network Reports RSS feed.  That's getting a little too close to home.

•Tornado near 6 miles ENE of Council Grove, KS
"(Reported By) Brandon Sullivan (Time) 2012-04-27 23:00:00 UTC (Notes) Brief tornado 5 to NW"
 
•Funnel Cloud near 2 miles N of Council Grove, KS
"(Reported By) Aaron Pippin (Time) 2012-04-27 22:57:00 UTC (Notes) White cone funnel, perhaps tornado, 4 miles east of location. 5mins ago. Could not see the ground to know if it was a tornado."

Offline cospringswx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4136
    • Colorado Springs Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #21 on: April 27, 2012, 08:43:37 PM »
My old hometown in Morris County is right in the middle of that watch box and there are no weather stations there to see what is going on.  The closest weather station is in Emporia.  I will be monitoring this situation for sure.

What town?

Council Grove


Nice. I've been to the hays house restaurant.




Ryan 

Colorado Springs, CO
www.cospringsweather.com
Davis Vantage Vue
Weather Display Software
Amcrest HD IP Camera

Offline Harryca

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 756
    • Union City, CA Weather
Re: 4/27/12 Moderate Risk Day
« Reply #22 on: April 27, 2012, 10:30:21 PM »
My old hometown in Morris County is right in the middle of that watch box and there are no weather stations there to see what is going on.  The closest weather station is in Emporia.  I will be monitoring this situation for sure.

What town?

Council Grove


Nice. I've been to the hays house restaurant.

No kidding?  I have been there a few times myself.  In fact, about every time we go back there, we have to stop at the Hays House.  Great food!

 

anything