Topic: Different forecast models within Windy

[OldAlaskaGuy]

I have noticed there is a big difference in ECMWF, GFS, NAM, and ICON for local weather. Example on one, today's forecast is a Wintery mix current, another one nothing for the area, one shows this for tonight, one for tomorrow thru the next day. Which one would be more accurate for my locality. Should I track these for a while and determine what one is the most accurate?

[Bashy]

Hi, i think the ECMWF and ICON are European models, GFS is worldwide and NAM is the North American Mesoscale, take from that as you will, but you basically answered it yourself, you should follow them and try to see a pattern, ie, if one keeps favouring one outcome over another maybe the one to keep a closer eye on. I think this is where the Ensembles are useful though i still don't fully understand a lot of it.

For me, here in the UK, i follow the GFS, GEFS and ECMWF for the most part

Have you seen wxcharts.com?

[ocala]

Try the HRRR. It's updated every hour but only goes out 18 hours.

[davidmc36]

Try the HRRR. It's updated every hour but only goes out 18 hours.

Isn't anything further into the future just Witchcraft?

One of the biggest trends I see in forecasts is the 5 day may be reasonably accurate as to content but it usually ends up not happening until the next day. The 5 day forecast is really the 6th day forecast by the time it happens. I don't think you can make final decision for a weather dependant event much more than 24 hours in advance.

I use HRRR a lot.

[ocala]

Try the HRRR. It's updated every hour but only goes out 18 hours.

Isn't anything further into the future just Witchcraft?

One of the biggest trends I see in forecasts is the 5 day may be reasonably accurate as to content but it usually ends up not happening until the next day. The 5 day forecast is really the 6th day forecast by the time it happens. I don't think you can make final decision for a weather dependant event much more than 24 hours in advance.

I use HRRR a lot.

Agree 100% The rest is just fictional weather entertainment. However I will give the folks at the TPC kudo's for their track guidance. They have become very good tracking tropical disturbances.

[PaulMy]

I have been posting a daily forecast, including a 5-day forecast... and the results - Today Wednesday:
High temp 3.9°C and Low -3.3°C
Light rain late afternoon.

Davis VP2+ forecast:
Increasing clouds with little temperature change. Precipitation possible within 24 to 48 hours

Sager forecast:
Fair weather; Wind diminishing, or moderating somewhat if current winds are fresh to strong. North or Northeast winds.

EC forecast:
Today: A mix of sun and cloud. Becoming cloudy near noon. 30 percent chance of rain or drizzle late this afternoon. Wind up to 15 km/h. High plus 5. Wind chill minus 5 this morning. UV index 1 or low.
Tonight: Cloudy with 60 percent chance of rain or drizzle. Wind becoming southwest 30 km/h gusting to 50 late this evening. Temperature steady near plus 4.

The 5-day Forecast for London/Middlesex, Ontario, Canada
Made on Friday for: Wednesday - Considerable cloudiness. Highs 0 to 2C and lows -3 to -1C.
Made on Saturday for: Wednesday - Rain/snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 2 to 4C and lows 1 to 3C.
Made on Sunday for: Wednesday - Rain/snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 2 to 4C and lows 0 to 2C.
Made on Monday for: Wednesday - Rain mixed with snow during the afternoon. Highs 2 to 4C and lows 1 to 3C.
Made on Tuesday for: Wednesday - Chance of afternoon showers. Highs 2 to 4C and lows 1 to 3C.
Made on Wednesday for: Wednesday - Afternoon showers. Highs 3 to 5C and lows 1 to 3C.

Made on Saturday for: Thursday - Showers possible. Highs 5 to 7C and lows -1 to 1C.
Made on Sunday for: Thursday - Showers possible. Highs 5 to 7C and lows -3 to -1C.
Made on Monday for: Thursday - Showers possible. Highs 5 to 7C and lows -2 to 0C.
Made on Tuesday for: Thursday - Showers possible. Highs 8 to 10C and lows -2 to 0C.
Made on Wednesday for: Thursday - Light rain in the morning. Highs 7 to 9C and lows -2 to 0C.

Made on Sunday for: Friday - Mostly cloudy. Highs 1 to 3C and lows -4 to -2C.
Made on Monday for: Friday - Snow showers possible. Highs 1 to 3C and lows -4 to -2C.
Made on Tuesday for: Friday - Mostly cloudy. Highs 1 to 3C and lows -4 to -2C.
Made on Wednesday for: Friday - Snow showers early. Highs 1 to 3C and lows -2 to 0C.

Made on Monday for: Saturday - Snow showers possible. Highs 0 to 2C and lows -6 to -4C.
Made on Tuesday for: Saturday - Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 2 to 4C and lows -5 to -3C.
Made on Wednesday for: Saturday - Cloudy. Highs 1 to 3C and lows -5 to -3C.

Made on Tuesday for: Sunday - Periods of snow. Highs -1 to 1C and lows -5 to -3C.
Made on Wednesday for: Sunday - Mix of rain and snow. Highs 1 to 3C and lows -2 to 0C.

Made on Wednesday for: Monday - Chance of a few snow showers. Highs 0 to 2C and lows -6 to -4C.

Enjoy,
Paul