General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics > Tropical Weather
Possible tropical development NE GOM
ocala:
Currently a low over northern Mississippi is forecasted to move SE to the GOM.
Conditions are favorable for development but not until later in the week.
TPC has it at 40%. Very strange genesis if it does develop.
Stay tuned.
WeatherHost:
--- Quote from: ocala on July 07, 2019, 12:04:01 PM ---Currently a low over northern Mississippi is forecasted to move SE to the GOM.
Very strange genesis if it does develop.
--- End quote ---
Indeed. They don't normally start inland, let alone that far. It was a bugger too with lots of wind and inland rotation. At one point our storms were moving from NE to SW, then almost due N to S.
Last I looked the 5 day forecast was up to 70%.
Jstx:
--- Quote from: ocala on July 07, 2019, 12:04:01 PM ---Currently a low over northern Mississippi is forecasted to move SE to the GOM.
Conditions are favorable for development but not until later in the week.
TPC has it at 40%. Very strange genesis if it does develop.
Stay tuned.
--- End quote ---
First heard of this potential cyclone a few days ago when it was over the Kentucky-Tennessee border.
"Very strange genesis" indeed. Can't remember ever hearing of a forecast like this one before, either the HPC models have really improved or this one is really weird.
Although this genesis pattern is like many North Atlantic systems which begin developing over continental West Africa, and then move offshore into the East Atlantic, where they intensify into a tropical system and generally move westward towards the Caribbean and North or Central America.
We're just not used to seeing one start in the Appalachia-MidSouth region and move south into the Gulf of Mexico to intensify.
I guess 'Climate Change' may be bringing us a lot of stranger stuff. Like scenes from our South Central Texas "Flash Flood Alley" taking place in the DC-MidAtlantic states area recently.
https://www.bing.com/search?q=Flash+flood+Alley&form=OPRTSD&pc=OPER
Been a weathernut to one degree or another for many decades, with a particular interest in tropical WX due to living on or near the southern Texas coast [and as a mariner and sailor], don't remember ever seeing anything like this one before.
Haven't even fully recovered from Harvey yet, dangit, and now some of the spaghetti has this possible TD/TS heading here around the weekend. Maybe nickname it the 'KenTenn Terror'?
Plus there are now six tropical waves in the Atlantic-Carib, and a "disturbance" near the Yucatan, which is actually closer than the KenTenn one.
Jstx:
--- Quote from: WeatherHost on July 08, 2019, 12:19:11 PM ---
--- Quote from: ocala on July 07, 2019, 12:04:01 PM ---Currently a low over northern Mississippi is forecasted to move SE to the GOM.
Very strange genesis if it does develop.
--- End quote ---
Indeed. They don't normally start inland, let alone that far. It was a bugger too with lots of wind and inland rotation. At one point our storms were moving from NE to SW, then almost due N to S.
Last I looked the 5 day forecast was up to 70%.
--- End quote ---
2 day is 30%, 5 day now at 80% chance of formation; as of the HPC map today @1327 EDT.
CW2274:
--- Quote from: Jstx on July 08, 2019, 03:24:54 PM ---
--- Quote from: ocala on July 07, 2019, 12:04:01 PM ---Currently a low over northern Mississippi is forecasted to move SE to the GOM.
Conditions are favorable for development but not until later in the week.
TPC has it at 40%. Very strange genesis if it does develop.
Stay tuned.
--- End quote ---
Been a weathernut to one degree or another for many decades, with a particular interest in tropical WX due to living on or near the southern Texas coast [and as a mariner and sailor], don't remember ever seeing anything like this one before.
--- End quote ---
Same here. Obviously conditions are progged for this low to find a favorable environment in the Gulf to take on tropical characteristics, then it just as well have crossed the Atlantic.
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