Topic: Fall-Winter 2020-2021

[Bunty]

With Oklahoma City TV weathermen and women sensationalizing lows in the mid 40s next week, it's time to start the Fall-Winter 2020-21 forum.  It may even snow in the Oklahoma panhandle with record lows elsewhere in Oklahoma.

[DRoberts]

Thanks for the thread. Not too soon either. Snow forecast in WY.
Our highs Northern KS on Sunday 101, Tuesday 40s.

[BKS97]

We’ll have a taste of fall here this coming week with lows in the 30s and frost forecast in northern Minnesota.

[WXMal4]

It is fall already - this is the first taste of the really cold weather to come. Looking at the NOAA long range forecasts, it will be getting cooler by the week.

Mal

[Notsorusty]

Incredible satellite image of the West Coast today. It is hard to believe the extent of these fires.

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[ValentineWeather]

JerryG had the tropical storm come in last night.  Looks like power went out about the time winds picked up and heavy rain was occurring here was the last data reported at 2 am.  Sent an email and no response so power likely still out this morning.

[Bunty]

During Tuesday morning, much of the eastern half of Oklahoma benefitted well from the outer band of Tropical Storm Beta with a bunch of rain amounts going over 1 inch.  From being near the west end of it, I only got .36".   But the opposite side of town the westside was yet closer to the very fringe line with one location only getting .06".  Interesting how that goes.  Very nice near normal sunny early fall weather coming for the next 10 days. 

[DRoberts]

50 degree temperature range today. 44 F to 94 F

[Notsorusty]

Crops are in and fall colors are starting to show.

First image from Aug 21, second from Oct 8th

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[DRoberts]

Quite a dramatic change in those photos.

Around here, first frosts have occurred but the killing frost is supposed to be coming up in a few days.

[Notsorusty]

We are supposed to get temps in the upper 20s overnite in the Chicago area, not hard freeze yet. I still have to decide whether to pull the tomatoes this afternoon or not. Cool and rainy weather coming up for the next week. Probably not worth trying to keep them going.  Overall it wasn't a great year for them, although the ones we did get were very good. The carrots did OK but they took a long time to get going. The pepper plants we bought turned out to be jalapenos, what a surprise, the neighbor really enjoyed them. Those two plants did better than anything else we planted this year.

[CW2274]

https://www.noaa.gov/media-release/us-winter-outlook-cooler-north-warmer-south-with-ongoing-la-nina

[DRoberts]

That article and those maps are depressing. From Kansas and Nebraska through the SW and W US are already dry, and this forecast looks to continue that trend.

I know here in the Plains we have been caught in what I best can describe as a rut. Not even a hint of moisture.

Comment from the more knowledgeable regarding the current "pattern" over the country as a whole and the West in particular? Would be interesting to hear from you.

[Notsorusty]

Yikes, parts of Minn are looking at 3 to 5 inches of snow today.
NWS report from Twin Cities/Chanhassen MN:

Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue Oct 20 2020

A snowfall of 1 inch or greater in the Twin Cities typically
doesn`t occur for another month (this would be only the 10th time
since the late 1800`s that it`s happened in the Twin Cities before
October 21st). And, if the MSP airport measures more than 3.0
inches today, the daily record dating back to October 1916 will be
shattered...

[chief-david]

Should start here anytime.

One of the earliest large snows on record. So much for global warming.  (insert emoji here)

Des Moines had 7 in places yesterday.

I did not get my Christmas lights up, or my rain gauge heater in.  Hopefully it will warm up enough to get both done.

[chief-david]

4-5 here

one area had 8. 

More expected Thursday. One of the earliest snows ever.

[ocala]

Not really weather related but last week I was in Cleveland to visit my dad.
Have not seen fall colors in over 30 years.
Holy Crap
Man I forgot how beautiful it was. It wasn't quite peaking yet, probably this week but man, just awesome.
OK, back to weather.

[CW2274]

Not really weather related but last week I was in Cleveland to visit my dad.
Have not seen fall colors in over 30 years.
Holy Crap
Man I forgot how beautiful it was. It wasn't quite peaking yet, probably this week but man, just awesome.
OK, back to weather.

Funny you say that, but my one brother and I are now long since "westerners" but grew up in PA and OH (as we've chatted about) and every year we'd try to fly back east to visit my mom and other brother specifically at this time to hopefully catch the fall colors. Haven't done it since we lost my mom, that was last "century", so not as long as you, but been about 23 years for me. Always a good time and definitely missed. 

[Notsorusty]

Don't like the weather? Wait a minute.

Yesterday at 1:00 am the Chicago area was at 44° F. Today at 6:30 pm we are at 43° F. Big deal? In between we went up to 78° F and received 3.83" rain. Forecast for overnite is 34° F.

At least it wasn't the 7" of snow that my sister in Minnesota got.

[chief-david]

More snow this weekend

[Notsorusty]

Snow on the ground in N. Dakota and Minnesota today. Fargo is the dark area in the center of the image.

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[Bunty]

Winter storm watches in October are rare here:

WINTER STORM WATCH Out includes OKC Metro

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Norman OK
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...Periods of Freezing Rain and Sleet Likely Late Tonight Through
Early Wednesday...

Logan-Payne-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Kiowa-Jackson-Tillman-Comanche-Cotton-Hardeman-Foard-
Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-
Including the cities of Guthrie, Stillwater, Anadarko, Hinton,
Yukon, Concho, El Reno, Mustang, Oklahoma City, Chandler, Stroud,
Prague, Meeker, Davenport, Wellston, Chickasha, Tuttle, Purcell,
Newcastle, Blanchard, Norman, Moore, Hobart, Snyder, Altus,
Frederick, Lawton, Walters, Temple, Quanah, Crowell, Vernon,
Sheppard AFB, Wichita Falls, Munday, Knox City, Seymour,
Archer City, Holliday, Lakeside City, and Scotland
327 PM CDT Sun Oct 25 2020

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of
one tenth to four tenths of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and southwest Oklahoma and
northern Texas.

* WHEN...From Monday evening through Wednesday morning.

* IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the
ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous
conditions could impact the morning or evening commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Freeze conditions could kill crops, other
sensitive vegetation and possibly damage unprotected outdoor
plumbing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Slow down and use caution while traveling. Prepare for possible
power outages.

And then big 3 to 4"+ rainfall amounts for much of Oklahoma by Thursday:  I'll believe them when I see them.  If this pans out, it's great news for holding off the drought from intensifying entering the drier winter months.

[Bunty]

TV meteorologist Emily Sutton from Oklahoma City discusses the storm for 19 minutes on Facebook:
https://www.facebook.com/emilyrsutton/videos/827655527972501

[Notsorusty]

Comments from Chicago area forecaster Tom Skilling:

Another blanket of snow whitened areas from the Plains to the upper Midwest on Sunday. Accumulations in excess of 6 inches were reported across parts of South Dakota and Nebraska. Two to 6 inches fell from northwest Iowa to Upper Michigan. The snow across the continental U.S. is well above normal for late October. On average, only 3.3% of the country has snow this time of year, mostly at higher elevations. On Sunday, snow covered 19.2% of the nation. Cold air will remain in place heading into midweek, but a major shift in upper level wind flow is due to sweep across the region by Friday. Temperatures are expected to rise above normal across all but the South and Northeast by Halloween. Forecasts through early November advertise mild weather, with daytime temps in the 50’s and 60s for the Chicago area.

[Bunty]

Winter storm watch turned into an ice storm warning here. It started around 3:30 am with rumbles of thunder.   Temperature at 11:30 am is barely above freezing at 32.5 with light freezing rain.  Ice appears trying to accumulate on roofs.  Things could deteriorate as temperature is expected to fall to 31 by this evening.  My weather station isn't freezing up for now.

Unfortunately,  temperatures are running a few degrees colder than originally in forecast.  Short-range models end the heavier precipitation later this evening and keep showers and drizzle going until heavier round of winter precipitation moves in by Tuesday morning. Temperatures will be key heading through Tues. night into Wed. afternoon when warming above freezing is expected.

Updated forecast shows western part of Oklahoma City metro getting .5 to 1 inch of ice, which would be considered catastrophic from damage.  Leaves still on trees won't help matters.  Fortunately, only .10" to .25" in the forecast for here, but enough to possibly cause issues.   Photo below snapped at 11:30 am Monday.