Topic: Hope everyone is ok...Wash your hands.

[johnd]

They [Sweden]are nearing herd immunity experts say...

Nowhere close I'm afraid:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-01/covid-19-sweden-hasn-t-cracked-the-coronavirus-code

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6cYjjEB3Ev (first 10-15 mins is relevant to Sweden).

South Korea looks like a better example of a country that's handled the epidemic well as a result of very extensive testing and a highly aggressive track,  trace, quarantine operation. But reports suggest that this was made easier by SK's experience of a serious MERS outbreak (another coronavirus related to COVID) a few years ago which made them realise just what a threat these respiratory viruses can represent. (And not forgetting NZ of course, though its natural isolation, smaller population and early action will have helped a lot there.)

It's also not known for sure whether herd immunity even applies to COVID-19 - there's just no hard information on that yet. It could be that as with some of the coronavirus common colds any antibody response is short-lived and does not prevent reinfection. (Hopefully this isn't the case, I hasten to add, but it's in the category of we really don't know as yet, just as we hope that a vaccine is possible and that COVID-19 is not in the same camp as eg HIV or malaria where the search for a cheap effective vaccine has drawn a blank so far.)

[ValentineWeather]

They [Sweden]are nearing herd immunity experts say...

Nowhere close I'm afraid:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-05-01/covid-19-sweden-hasn-t-cracked-the-coronavirus-code



It's also not known for sure whether herd immunity even applies to COVID-19 - there's just no hard information on that yet. It could be that as with some of the coronavirus common colds any antibody response is short-lived and does not prevent reinfection. (Hopefully this isn't the case, I hasten to add, but it's in the category of we really don't know as yet, just as we hope that a vaccine is possible and that COVID-19 is not in the same camp as eg HIV or malaria where the search for a cheap effective vaccine has drawn a blank so far.)

So you reference an opinion piece from Bloomberg. 

What I'm referencing is what spokespersons for the Swedes are saying. They expect herd immunity in May. The question is will antibodies stop reinfection? We will soon see.
Don't hold your breath on a vaccine but we can hope.

https://www.newsweek.com/sweden-stockholm-coronavirus-herd-immunity-reinfection-1500342

[johnd]

What I'm referencing is what spokespersons for the Swedes are saying. They expect herd immunity in May.

You did see that those comments were withdrawn as erroneous?

[ValentineWeather]

What I'm referencing is what spokespersons for the Swedes are saying. They expect herd immunity in May.

You did see that those comments were withdrawn as erroneous?

Did you see Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO’s top emergencies expert, suggests learning from Sweden — which never shut down completely — as a “model” for battling the coronavirus?

[johnd]

Did you see Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO’s top emergencies expert, suggests learning from Sweden — which never shut down completely — as a “model” for battling the coronavirus?

The most recent quote from him that I can quickly see is: 'In a World Health Organisation (WHO) press conference on April 29, Dr Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, said that “there may be lessons to be learned” from Sweden’s “very strong strategic approach,” though he noted that it “remains to be seen” whether its approach has been successful.' That seems to be a good deal more cautious than you're suggesting. What's your source?

TBH the bottom line seems to be that no-one knows for sure at this stage. Right now it looks like South Korea is the better model, but maybe things will change? Until all the excess deaths data are fully available in maybe 12 months time (suitably expressed on a population basis and corrected for different age distributions etc) it won't be possible to set up a league table of 'who did best'. And then that will have to be weighed against the economic damage that different countries have suffered and we'll have some measure of what one death is considered to be worth in different places.

[ValentineWeather]

Did you see Dr. Mike Ryan, WHO’s top emergencies expert, suggests learning from Sweden — which never shut down completely — as a “model” for battling the coronavirus?

The most recent quote from him that I can quickly see is: 'In a World Health Organisation (WHO) press conference on April 29, Dr Mike Ryan, Executive Director of the WHO Health Emergencies Programme, said that “there may be lessons to be learned” from Sweden’s “very strong strategic approach,” though he noted that it “remains to be seen” whether its approach has been successful.' That seems to be a good deal more cautious than you're suggesting. What's your source?

TBH the bottom line seems to be that no-one knows for sure at this stage. Right now it looks like South Korea is the better model, but maybe things will change? Until all the excess deaths data are fully available in maybe 12 months time (suitably expressed on a population basis and corrected for different age distributions etc) it won't be possible to set up a league table of 'who did best'. And then that will have to be weighed against the economic damage that different countries have suffered and we'll have some measure of what one death is considered to be worth in different places.

Agree we won't know the outcome until its all over. Those doing hard mitigation will continue to have cases for a long time to come so which approach worked better time will tell. If antibodies don't stop reinfection then  mitigation will likely be the correct approach and let's hope we get a vaccine.

[gwwilk]

...If antibodies don't stop reinfection then  mitigation will likely be the correct approach and let's hope we get a vaccine.

This is an oxymoron, Randy.  If antibodies don't prevent reinfection, then there's no hope for a vaccine because they rely on inducing appropriate antibodies for their effectiveness.

Hence mitigation isn't the correct approach if a vaccine isn't forthcoming.  It delays the inevitable and flattens the curve.  Events still play out, just over a longer time span.

There are too many unknowns with COVID-19 to allow an accurate prediction as to our future vis-a-vis the virus.

[stevebrtx]

I made the border run to Acuna, MX yesterday and Del Rio looked fairly normal except everyone had masks and of course the usual things were closed. Mexico was about the same, all the restaurants/bars were closed but other businesses seemed open, most everyone was wearing a mask. Of course when I got back home I rarely see a mask around here.

Now we are into the political phase of this charade, some of the governors are feeling their oats and the pushback is mounting rapidly, it's going to get ugly early. And stores that are open are being driven by their corporate lawyers assuring them that they will be sued if they don't go to extreme measures customer relations be damned. It's all unnecessary, but being the obedient little sheeple we are, most have fallen in line - at least for now, we'll see.

[johnd]

This is an oxymoron, Randy.  If antibodies don't prevent reinfection, then there's no hope for a vaccine because they rely on inducing appropriate antibodies for their effectiveness.

Hence mitigation isn't the correct approach if a vaccine isn't forthcoming.  It delays the inevitable and flattens the curve.  Events still play out, just over a longer time span.

Buying time is a valuable strategy though. In part, it stops health services being totally overwhelmed, with all the misery and avoidable deaths (eg too few ventilators being available) that would involve.

And in part it allows better understanding of the disease and better treatments to develop. Clinicians already have advanced their knowledge to an extent, eg don't ventilate too early, proning, watch coagulation status carefully etc. Pointless therapies with potential side-effects are being discarded. Proper trials of antiviral agents with patients at different stages of disease will have time to report and be refined and tried further, more effective anti-immune treatments for the cytokine storm may have emerged and so on. Another 6-12 months of accumulated clinical experience could be invaluable.

[gwwilk]

...Another 6-12 months of accumulated clinical experience could be invaluable.

We're past the point of mitigation's effectiveness.  What is its current and future cost?  A depression the likes of which we haven't seen for 80 years with its accompanying deaths and destruction of lives?  The economy has to enter into your equation at some point despite your desire to continue mitigation seemingly indefinitely.  The 'even one more life lost is too many' viewpoint is naive and untenable.  Face facts of life not romantic fantasy.

There are multiple problems regarding COVID-19:

President Trump is right when he says we don't know what it is because some scientists have reported at least 9 different strains of COVID-19, which is a huge problem in and of itself.  How do you manufacture an effective vaccine against such a protean pathogen?  No such vaccine was ever possible against the congener virus, SARS, so why would this be any different?  Hope is fragile against such odds.  Herd immunity via symptomatic or asymptomatic infection will probably be the ultimate resolution of this epidemic.

We have no real data regarding COVID-19.  The initial testing done for the presence of the virus used the ridiculous standard of showing signs of a respiratory illness before any testing was even warranted!  This fit well with the fact that reliable, i.e. sensitive and specific, tests weren't available much less widely available, and there is argument even today regarding testing for the presence of COVID-19.  So, if we had no real idea who was secreting and spreading the virus because we weren't randomly testing even a portion of our population, how is containment via a traditional public health approach of contact identification, testing, and isolation even remotely possible?  Asymptomatic carriers are, and have been, the fly in the containment ointment's strategy.  Widespread testing of a significant percentage of the population for viral shedding at this time will yield interesting data that holds little implication for disease containment.

We don't know if and when people infected with COVID-19 no longer spread the virus.  Some studies have shown viral RNA shedding for up to 9 days.  Moreover, we don't know if what our tests detect are actually viable infectious particles or merely fragments of inactive viral RNA that continue to be shed.  Only expensive, time-consuming tissue culture tests can display viral activity in vitro.  These aren't currently being used even though they're the 'gold standard'.

Immunity against the virus will be the eventual outcome for the majority of us.  Tests for such are being developed and tested.  They will provide an interesting retrospective to this epidemic and can possibly pinpoint those who are probably not a shedding threat to those vulnerable persons who are being isolated and protected from potential COVID-19 infection.  Passively transmitting the virus via hands and inanimate objects is an entirely different issue.

We will emerge from this into a dramatically different world, no doubt.

[johnd]

We're past the point of mitigation's effectiveness.

I don't know what that means. But there's a wealth of steps between full lockdown and total free-for-all. I guarantee you that the latter wouldn't last for long

The 'even one more life lost is too many' viewpoint is naive and untenable.

Who is suggesting that? I can't spot anyone.

President Trump is right when he says we don't know what it is because some scientists have reported at least 9 different strains of COVID-19, which is a huge problem in and of itself.  How do you manufacture an effective vaccine against such a protean pathogen?  No such vaccine was ever possible against the congener virus, SARS, so why would this be any different?  Hope is fragile against such odds. 

That's quite a big misunderstanding of the position. The so-called strains of COVID-19 are actually (relatively) very minor variants and none, to my knowledge, have mutations in the more antigenic region of the spike protein which is likely to be the prime antigen in most (all?) of the various vaccine projects. So a vaccine against one would be expected to be active against all known variants. (Now whether that would be true for future variants is a different call of course, but let's not be too pessimistic). SARS is a much more distant relative of COVID, even IIRC using a different attachment receptor.

Herd immunity via symptomatic or asymptomatic infection will probably be the ultimate resolution of this epidemic.

In the absence of any good therapy (which remember has worked for HIV) that's axiomatic. It's just a question of how and when to get there.

how is containment via a traditional public health approach of contact identification, testing, and isolation even remotely possible?

That strategy appears to have worked well in S Korea.

Asymptomatic carriers are, and have been, the fly in the containment ointment's strategy. 

That's debatable. Asymptomatic 'carriers' probably shed relatively little virus (at least relative to symptomatic individuals), otherwise they would be more symptomatic. But I agree it's one of many areas that needs more investigation.

[Bunty]

This isn't good news:

Expert report predicts up to two more years of pandemic misery.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/30/health/report-covid-two-more-years/index.html

[stevebrtx]

The "experts" credibility is totally shot, now they're trying to scrounge up some relevance to justify their paychecks.

[gwwilk]

We're past the point of mitigation's effectiveness.

... (elision)

You elided my main contention about the mitigation's social and economic costs while adducing 'scientific' guesses in the remainder your response.

My point is simply that guesswork is the ultimate basis for all of this mitigation.  Nobody has a clear picture of the future of this epidemic and its sequelae.  To aver otherwise is merely to enter into political advocacy of one course of (in)action over another.  I say 'political' because battle lines have been drawn mainly along an axis which revolves around progressive-liberalism with enforced strictures versus conservatism with freedom, personal choice and individual responsibility.  In other words, science won't settle this debate; events will, while science follows closely on the events' heels.

[waiukuweather]

Nobody has a clear picture of the future of this epidemic

there is
by looking at other countries that are ahead on the timeline and look at what worked best and learn from those countries

[gwwilk]

This is a contrarian view more in line with my thinking: https://wmbriggs.com/post/30633/

Here's George Gilder on the subject today:

Back to Bloodletting!
Dear Daily Prophecy Reader,
Can statistical models — “big data” — tell you what we should do about COVID-19? Or about climate trends?
Can statistics possibly justify shutting down the economy to fight a virus or change the climate? Or would bloodletting, as performed and tested by surgeons for millennia on their patients, be a far better course of action?
Artificial intelligence (AI) and “machine learning” — based on “big data” modeling — are the foundations of a new generation of information tools that are being used and abused widely by policymakers.
Jeopardizing their usefulness are ideas of their capabilities no more realistic than 18th century illusions about the effects of leeches on disease.
These days, we hear constantly of the need to respect what is called science, whether of climate change or of coronavirus effects. But when the so-called science is scrutinized, it nearly always turns out to mean more leeches, a statistical model.
A Telic AI Explanation for the Ages
In previous prophecies, you have met statistical philosopher William Briggs, now blogging incandescently on the COVID viral new mania. Read his blog by clicking here.
In his book, Uncertainty, he proves the inexorable limits of big data. Statistics simply cannot prove cause. If you don’t know the cause, you cannot differentiate noise from signal in the statistics.
The original authority on cause was the ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle, who divided causality into formal, material, efficient, and telic (purpose-based) explanations.
For an example, take a vase. The formal cause is its shape, but the shape cannot produce the vase without appropriate material such as clay or silica (glass). The material and the shape together are immediate causes of the vase. But they are impotent to produce it without an efficient cause, the hands of a potter or the breath of the glass blower — and an external heat source such as a kiln.
However, the final or telic cause is the mind of the potter himself, who conceives the purpose of making a vase rather than an ashtray or a bowl or a pipe. Without reading his mind, which a machine can never do, your understanding of the vase is trivial and almost irrelevant.
Suitably programmed and structured by human minds, AI can seem to reveal formal, material, and efficient causes. But actual purposes are beyond it. Thus, AI is intrinsically a rearview mirror. It can predict the future only by assuming continuity with the past and disregarding the power of human free will to reverse a trend.
For example, to address a more topical set of causes, we might return to COVID-19, the disease that is deranging the world in 2020. The form is the ostensible aspect — people getting sick with the flu; the material is the invisible substance involved — a novel coronavirus; the efficient cause is normally some kind of mechanism — the spread of the virus from raw bat markets in Wuhan to the world through human contact; the telos is the rub — the purpose, the essence of viruses. The telos reveals not what, but why an event happened.
Where does artificial intelligence fit in this scheme? Using a structured and filtered assemblage of big data from hospitals, a machine learning algorithm could resolve on a pattern of symptoms that represents the form of the disease. Through masses of carefully structured testing data, AI could identify a particular material pathogen that is present in all these cases. By poring through records from cellphones, tele-thermometers and other tracking devices or hospital reports, AI might show that personal interactions with infected parties account efficiently for the spread of the disease.
Aha! a policy-maker might declare. Stop all personal interactions and the disease will die!
The AI algorithms, appropriately deployed, arguably could contribute significantly to a description of “what happened.” Why the disease occurred and how it can be appropriately remedied, however, presents a conundrum beyond the data.
Knowledge of cause is above and beyond and deeper than knowledge of “what happens.” It reflects the grasping of essences through induction of universals beyond the material world. It entails grasping the biology and informatics of viruses, the way they function and communicate, how their RNA codes, peptides, and proteases can be generated through Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) machines. It requires knowledge of immunology and herd immunity and vaccines and hygiene and mutation of DNA and RNA. It requires a transcendent multidisciplinary understanding of the world utterly absent from AI.

[CW2274]

Point of matter. How other countries do their business is irrelevant to me at this moment. MY country and how the Constitution of the United States is being thrown under the bus by clueless underlings is completely unacceptable. This MUST be quashed....NOW.

[ValentineWeather]

Point of matter. How other countries do their business is irrelevant to me at this moment. MY country and how the Constitution of the United States is being thrown under the bus by clueless underlings is completely unacceptable. This MUST be quashed....NOW.

Exactly 
Did you see the thousands of people at Hunting Beach California telling the Gov where to stick it?   

[CW2274]

Point of matter. How other countries do their business is irrelevant to me at this moment. MY country and how the Constitution of the United States is being thrown under the bus by clueless underlings is completely unacceptable. This MUST be quashed....NOW.

Exactly 
Did you see the thousands of people at Hunting Beach California telling the Gov where to stick it?   

Tip of the iceberg. State/local government best get their ducks in a row or this will unfortunately get reeeealy ugly.

[ValentineWeather]

Point of matter. How other countries do their business is irrelevant to me at this moment. MY country and how the Constitution of the United States is being thrown under the bus by clueless underlings is completely unacceptable. This MUST be quashed....NOW.

Exactly 
Did you see the thousands of people at Hunting Beach California telling the Gov where to stick it?   

Tip of the iceberg. State/local government best get their ducks in a row or this will unfortunately get reeeealy ugly.

I think there's more to the story, this is Orange County and the only area I'm aware of where the gov decided going to the beach was too dangerous. I think most can put 2 and 2 together and see what's going on here and what pissed so many off.

[Bunty]

Good lord, apparently because the city of Stillwater wrongly interpreted the outcome of a recent court case, it thought it could require wearing masks when entering a store.  The court case was dismissed because the complainant didn't even have a case--no citation, not because a city requiring mandatory mask wear was ruled constitutional.  At one of the Wal-Marts, workers were not letting people in without a mask, stirring up tempers.  So the city issued a revision--now no masks required:

Emergency Proclamation Amended
Released: May 01, 2020

"Mayor Will Joyce announced that an amended Emergency Proclamation affecting the opening of certain businesses within the City was issued this afternoon. The amendment is in response to concerns voiced by business proprietors and citizens about the proclamation going into effect early this morning.  The changes are related to wearing face coverings and extends the duration of the proclamation to May 31 at 11:59 p.m. This proclamation will be subject to continued amendments as necessary.

City Manager Norman McNickle said, “In the short time beginning on May 1, 2020, that face coverings have been required for entry into stores/restaurants, store employees have been threatened with physical violence and showered with verbal abuse.  In addition, there has been one threat of violence using a firearm.  This has occurred in three short hours and in the face of clear medical evidence that face coverings helps contain the spread of COVID-19.

“Many of those with objections cite the mistaken belief the requirement is unconstitutional, and under their theory, one cannot be forced to wear a mask. No law or court supports this view. In fact, a recent Federal lawsuit against Guthrie’s face covering order was fully dismissed by the United States District Court for the Western District of Oklahoma.

“It is further distressing that these people, while exercising their believed rights, put others at risk.  As mentioned, there is clear medical evidence the face coverings prevent COVID-19 spread; they are recommended by both the CDC and the Oklahoma State Department of Health. The wearing of face coverings is little inconvenience to protect both the wearer and anyone with whom they have contact.  And, an unprotected person who contracts the virus can infect their own loved ones and others.

“It is further well settled that a business is private property to which people do not have unfettered right of entry.  Just as a business has the right to enforce 'No Shoes, No Shirt, No Service,' the business can require a face covering as a condition to entry.

“The City of Stillwater has attempted to keep people safe by the simple requirement to wear a face covering to protect others.  It is unfortunate and distressing that those who refuse and threaten violence are so self-absorbed as to not follow what is a simple show of respect and kindness to others.

“In that effort to insure the safety of others, we now have to weigh the safety of store owners and employees to threats of violence.  We cannot, in clear conscience, put our local business community in harm’s way, nor can the police be everywhere. Accordingly, we will now be asking our local stores and business to encourage, but not require, patrons to cover their faces. Of course, each business can choose to adopt a more stringent approach, and we ask everyone to respect and abide by such decisions.

Wearing a face covering is an easy way to support the health of your community and speed our recovery from this pandemic.  Please do so.”

[CW2274]

Point of matter. How other countries do their business is irrelevant to me at this moment. MY country and how the Constitution of the United States is being thrown under the bus by clueless underlings is completely unacceptable. This MUST be quashed....NOW.

Exactly 
Did you see the thousands of people at Hunting Beach California telling the Gov where to stick it?   

Tip of the iceberg. State/local government best get their ducks in a row or this will unfortunately get reeeealy ugly.

I think there's more to the story, this is Orange County and the only area I'm aware of where the gov decided going to the beach was too dangerous. I think most can put 2 and 2 together and see what's going on here and what pissed so many off.

Well, the droves that showed up at the state capitol in Lansing with their Second Amendment right in hand should be a sobering eye-opener.

[Bunty]

Stillwater Police Chief Jeff Watts also had some words in a statement issued Friday afternoon.

“We, Stillwater Police Department, are not stopping motorists to ensure the driver is wearing or in possession of a face covering. We are not responding to complaints of citizens not wearing face coverings in businesses. We are not ticketing citizens for failing to wear a face covering in public,” Watts wrote.

The police department will continue to respond to complaints of gatherings with 10 or more people and will take action according to the guidelines outlined in the proclamation. All people who violate the provisions are subject to a fine of $500 each.

Watts explained that under the amended proclamation, people are encouraged to wear face coverings while visiting both essential and non-essential businesses, and are required to wear them while patronizing personal care businesses that require close contact.

People who enter a business and are uncomfortable with other patrons not wearing a face mask have the option of leaving the business or continuing to shop, he said. But business owners have the legal right to require their patrons to wear face coverings.

“If a business requires you to wear a face covering and you refuse to do so the business has the right to refuse you service and/or demand you leave their establishment,” Watts wrote. “If you refuse to do so, you could be cited and/or arrested for trespassing if the business call the police and requests to make a citizen’s arrest.”

[waiukuweather]

the 75,000 deaths in the USA might be exceded now going by latest predictions with hopes it wont eventually get to 100,000 deaths

[SnowHiker]

Point of matter. How other countries do their business is irrelevant to me at this moment. MY country and how the Constitution of the United States is being thrown under the bus by clueless underlings is completely unacceptable. This MUST be quashed....NOW.

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