How they make a Prediction???

[Farmtalk]

I heard that hurricane experts predicted an EXTREMELY active 2011 tropical season. I figure el nino and la nina might have a role in this, and I know that water temperatues have to be pretty warm - 80F, but how do they actually come up with that kind of prediction?

[Scalphunter]

AMM is what they use  read.

http://www.sciencedaily.com/videos/2008/0806-more_accurate_hurricane_predictions.htm

[Farmtalk]

Thanks, Scalphunter... I figure that will help a lot of viewers like myself

[Flag]

That's why it is called a forecast, as opposed to a now cast or an actual observation.