Author Topic: Dorian  (Read 4271 times)

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #50 on: August 31, 2019, 08:51:25 PM »
 :lol:    Was not expecting that.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #51 on: August 31, 2019, 09:10:05 PM »
I just hope it doesn't straighten out and go inland after all.

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Offline ocala

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #52 on: September 01, 2019, 06:39:41 AM »
Guess I spoke too soon. In the past 24 hours the  models are trending back to the west so the track was moved ever so slightly back  west. It was enough for me to go out and top off the tanks this morning.
If the trends continue wouldn't be surprised to see the track moved again. NHC doesn't like to make huge changes at once so if they do it will probably be a small, if any move.
Keeping things interesting for sure. :?

Offline ocala

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #53 on: September 01, 2019, 06:42:07 AM »
spaghettimodels (Mikes Wx Page) is an excellent source for all graphics.

https://www.facebook.com/ChefRichardWilson/videos/2537079256354637/

The Weather Channel be like.... #hurricane #spaghetti #moreaccuratethanweatherchannel #floridabelike #florida
=D>

Offline Jasiu

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #54 on: September 01, 2019, 07:55:13 AM »
Cat 5, 160mph, 927mb.

Northern Bahamas... I can't imagine.

Offline ocala

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #55 on: September 01, 2019, 08:47:11 AM »
Live weather station in the Bahamas. Just east of the eye.
https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IABACOGU2

Offline Vette-kid

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #56 on: September 01, 2019, 08:48:07 AM »
What is the steering force that would push Dorian northward?  I understand the two highs blocking it, but in their absence, what would cause it to go north?  Why not just carry on to the West?

Offline ocala

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #57 on: September 01, 2019, 08:53:12 AM »
Not sure but I do know that well defined storms tend to move poleward.

Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #58 on: September 01, 2019, 09:02:01 AM »
927 hPa... Cat 5... Wow
WS-2000 & WS-2902A | Ecowitt GW1000 | WeatherBridge (Meteobridge)
WU: KFLWINTE111  |  PWSweather: KFLWINTE111
CWOP: FW3708  |  AWEKAS: 14814
Windy: pws-f075acbe
Weather Underground Issue Tracking
Tele-Pole

Offline capeweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #59 on: September 01, 2019, 09:04:56 AM »
Some uncertainty is felt in this podcast at 8am this morning from Ken Graham.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/audio/201909011204.mp3

Chris
Cape Coral, Florida
Website: http://www.capeweather.com
Website: http://www.fortmyersweather.net

Offline Vette-kid

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #60 on: September 01, 2019, 09:55:15 AM »
175mph!!!

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #61 on: September 01, 2019, 10:18:49 AM »
At this point there will be all kinds of uncertainty.  Anything is possible.   Remember Charlie.



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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #62 on: September 01, 2019, 10:20:48 AM »
They really need to cut the dramatics though.  Almost seems like Irwin Allen is writing some of their text.

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Offline capeweather

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #63 on: September 01, 2019, 10:34:57 AM »
I remember. Was 10 miles from the eye at home. Last minute wobble left thousands unprepared....including me.

At this point there will be all kinds of uncertainty.  Anything is possible.   Remember Charlie.

Chris
Cape Coral, Florida
Website: http://www.capeweather.com
Website: http://www.fortmyersweather.net

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #64 on: September 01, 2019, 11:07:32 AM »
180 MPH??????? Why is this thing still gaining power? What happened to the dry air?

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #65 on: September 01, 2019, 11:09:49 AM »
Three more brewing also.
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Offline SoMDWx

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #66 on: September 01, 2019, 12:09:23 PM »
Dorain is entering an area of deeper, warmer water with no/little shear........

This storm could be one for all times....
Jim Wyman
Southern Maryland Weather
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Offline Vette-kid

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #67 on: September 01, 2019, 12:19:45 PM »
Three more brewing also.

Where?  I've not seen this

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #68 on: September 01, 2019, 12:57:20 PM »
Three more brewing also.

Where?  I've not seen this

You haven't seen the NHC main page?

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Offline galfert

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #69 on: September 01, 2019, 01:04:26 PM »
Three more brewing shown here:

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
WS-2000 & WS-2902A | Ecowitt GW1000 | WeatherBridge (Meteobridge)
WU: KFLWINTE111  |  PWSweather: KFLWINTE111
CWOP: FW3708  |  AWEKAS: 14814
Windy: pws-f075acbe
Weather Underground Issue Tracking
Tele-Pole

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #70 on: September 01, 2019, 01:20:23 PM »
CATEGORY 5 DORIAN MAKES LANDFALL ON ELBOW CAY IN THE
ABACOS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
satellite data indicate that Dorian has made landfall at 1240 pm
EDT (1640 UTC) in Elbow Cay, Abacos. The winds have increased
to 185 mph (295 km/h) with the minimum central pressure falling to
911 mb (26.90 inches).

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 220 mph
- Storm Surge 18 to 23 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves
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Offline Jasiu

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #71 on: September 01, 2019, 01:32:08 PM »
What is the steering force that would push Dorian northward?  I understand the two highs blocking it, but in their absence, what would cause it to go north?  Why not just carry on to the West?

From the 11am EDT NHC discussion:

Quote
The steering currents are collapsing and Dorian is
expected to slow down even more, prolonging its catastrophic effects
in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast calls for a slow west
to west-northwest motion during the next 48 hours, with a turn to
the north and an increase in forward speed as the mid-level trough
along the eastern United States deepens and becomes the dominant
steering feature.

That is still days out, though, adding uncertainty. Hence we now see the watches upgraded on the FL coast.

Offline Vette-kid

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #72 on: September 01, 2019, 01:51:00 PM »
Three more brewing also.

Where?  I've not seen this

You haven't seen the NHC main page?

Honestly, I kept skipping over that graphic, thank you. 

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #73 on: September 01, 2019, 03:15:37 PM »
There is still a spread in these models, particularly, the HWFI, which is a hurricane model. However, they all tend to agree that once the storm makes the turn, it will go north and northeast rather quickly (in relation to these storms and the speeds they typically move) HWFI goes almost due east. None of the models go into upstate SC and NC like what I would be looking for if I were to anticipate a direct landfall right now, so that is some good news, and they have been very consistent too in predicting this out to sea motion. The models always seem to shift back and forth a bit most times, and this time that has been very minimal. The cold front and high pressure coming down later in the next few days seems to be strong enough to turn this beast on out?

Thoughts? Opinions?

Offline CW2274

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Re: Dorian
« Reply #74 on: September 01, 2019, 03:45:38 PM »
Tropical systems are nothing more than like a cork floating in a bathtub, they're completely dependent on other forces for it's movement as well as it's "health". The trough draped across the mid-Atlantic states will certainly turn the storm to the right, the problem is when.

 

anything