Author Topic: Dorian  (Read 4238 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1604
Re: Dorian
« Reply #75 on: September 01, 2019, 03:58:50 PM »
CMC and HWRF are taking it into Florida and Georgia! HWRF and HWFI have been showing this all day. Now the CMC is also taking this route. That would be catastrophic.

Has anyone mentioned these on TV?

Offline waiukuweather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 755
Re: Dorian
« Reply #76 on: September 01, 2019, 03:59:34 PM »
they tend to move towards areas of falling air pressure  and are also influenced by upper level steering winds (which if strong enough means they can run into high pressure to a degree)
but once they become a monstor, like this one, then they are the environment

Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1604
Re: Dorian
« Reply #77 on: September 01, 2019, 04:22:32 PM »
The EE set of models are in, and they are ramming it into the coast anywhere from Daytona Beach up to Charleston, and even possibly now Myrtle Beach. We need to really pay attention to this trend. These EE models have been the very best so far, with an error of 100 to at most 200 miles in 5 days.

Offline waiukuweather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 755
Re: Dorian
« Reply #78 on: September 01, 2019, 04:32:29 PM »
There is a huge amount of angular momentum with a system like this
it take a lot to change its direction
If it stalls then sure it can then start moving in a different direction
but otherwise its move a gradual turn

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4887
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Dorian
« Reply #79 on: September 01, 2019, 05:11:53 PM »
I'm seriously wondering if some of the cays of Bermuda will even exist after this. Bad enough to get slapped one direction at a sustained buck eighty five, let alone gusts, they're getting from both sides, and taking it's time to boot.

Offline Jasiu

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 591
    • LexMAWeather
Re: Dorian
« Reply #80 on: September 01, 2019, 06:02:57 PM »
Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings up for parts of Atlantic Coast of Florida.


Offline konz

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 145
    • ArlingtonWX
Re: Dorian
« Reply #81 on: September 01, 2019, 11:46:18 PM »
Not sure but I do know that well defined storms tend to move poleward.

Maybe based on the Coriolis effect and prevailing winds.  The same occurs for ocean currents - clockwise in the northern hemi and counter-clockwise in the southern hemi.

Quote
"The Coriolis Effect describes the turn of the wind to the right in the Northern Hemisphere caused by earth's rotation. Why do I care? The Coriolis Effect contributes to the circular motion of the wind around pressure systems which move weather patterns in the southeastern United States."
« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 12:13:37 AM by konz »

Offline konz

  • Contributor
  • ***
  • Posts: 145
    • ArlingtonWX
Re: Dorian
« Reply #82 on: September 01, 2019, 11:50:59 PM »
Found this WeatherHawk 610 and had never heard of such a brand - no moving parts.  Hope it stays up.  Just looked at the WU radar of the storm and my heart goes out to those living there.  They've got to be taking a beating.

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/IWESTGRA2?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

« Last Edit: September 02, 2019, 12:15:34 AM by konz »

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4887
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Dorian
« Reply #83 on: September 02, 2019, 01:21:54 AM »
This thing has slowed to an absolute crawl...if even that, and the island will do little to weaken it before it has done it's carnage. I suppose one could hope this is the influence that will start it's right turn....

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-15-48-1-50-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3704
Re: Dorian
« Reply #84 on: September 02, 2019, 06:32:47 AM »
The before and after sat pics for Michael were very telling.
These will probably be off the charts.
At this point just a TS watch just to my east so not much gonna happen here.
But of course a slight deviation west could change that.

Offline SlowModem

  • Weather at the speed of dialup!
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6603
  • WX @ 26.4 kbs
    • Watts Bar Weather
Re: Dorian
« Reply #85 on: September 02, 2019, 09:43:09 AM »
The last word I heard just a few minutes ago is that the movement is stalled.  There's just no telling where this thing is going to go.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1604
Re: Dorian
« Reply #86 on: September 02, 2019, 10:31:37 AM »
The last word I heard just a few minutes ago is that the movement is stalled.  There's just no telling where this thing is going to go.

Dry air is coming down from the north on the water vapor loop. This should begin to interact with the Hurricane, and weaken it, along with begin to pick it up in the trough and move it northeast.

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3516
Re: Dorian
« Reply #87 on: September 02, 2019, 03:25:25 PM »
The last word I heard just a few minutes ago is that the movement is stalled.

2PM, WNW at 1MPH.

I'd say that's stalled.

Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4887
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Dorian
« Reply #88 on: September 02, 2019, 03:57:20 PM »
The last word I heard just a few minutes ago is that the movement is stalled.
I'd say that's stalled.
You guys are late to the party, I made that comment 14 hours ago....

Offline Jasiu

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 591
    • LexMAWeather
Re: Dorian
« Reply #89 on: September 02, 2019, 06:14:45 PM »
Hurricane warnings now extend north to just short of Jacksonville (from just north of West Palm).


Offline galfert

  • Global Moderator
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3231
Re: Dorian
« Reply #90 on: September 03, 2019, 04:31:54 AM »
Seeing the latest forecast, I feel like I dodged a bullet.

 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
WS-2000 & WS-2902A | Ecowitt GW1000 | WeatherBridge (Meteobridge)
WU: KFLWINTE111  |  PWSweather: KFLWINTE111
CWOP: FW3708  |  AWEKAS: 14814
Windy: pws-f075acbe
Weather Underground Issue Tracking
Tele-Pole

Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1604
Re: Dorian
« Reply #91 on: September 05, 2019, 06:21:47 PM »
Very tranquil here now. Dorian has begun to weaken, and is moving NE as anticipated. These models are amazingly accurate now. The GFS had this forecast nailed many days ago.
Dry air is intruding, and the cold front is going to keep it along the outer banks and rapidly move it off the NC coast. I think we may see 50 MPH wind at my location later tonight, but this one won't be anything like what I've witnessed before. Tornadoes have been the threat in isolated locations today in eastern NC>

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4887
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Dorian
« Reply #92 on: September 05, 2019, 06:38:42 PM »
Yes, was just looking at the radar, appears nothing more than a rain/wind/some beach erosion event for you guys. Outer banks may see the worst of it.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4887
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Dorian
« Reply #93 on: September 05, 2019, 06:41:49 PM »
Tornadoes have been the threat in isolated locations today in eastern NC>
Fortunately, land interacted tropical storms usually only make EF0 and 1's, just enough to rip the roof of the tool shed.

Offline Papa

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 9
Re: Dorian
« Reply #94 on: September 05, 2019, 10:39:48 PM »
Been watching 2 WU sites at Holden Beach NC. Unimpressive wind so far and barometric pressure is beginning to rise.ay have dodged a bullet.

Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1604
Re: Dorian
« Reply #95 on: September 06, 2019, 08:37:04 AM »
Storm is moving out. Still breezy. Highest wind 51 MPH. Rain over 5 inches, but is not standing. Very dry summer here. Power still on, but around the area some are without, but not very many I don't think...


Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4887
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Dorian
« Reply #97 on: September 06, 2019, 05:30:24 PM »

Offline Jasiu

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 591
    • LexMAWeather
Re: Dorian
« Reply #98 on: September 06, 2019, 05:51:15 PM »
I have to give props to the NHC for the forecast work on Dorian. Particularly tricky with a stalling storm. I know there were a lot of weather balloons launched in the continental US to get extra data to help with the steering situation. I wonder how much that helped.

This is also a slam-dunk retired name give the catastrophic damage.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4887
    • Conditions @ CW2274 West Tucson-Painted Hills Ranch
Re: Dorian
« Reply #99 on: September 06, 2019, 06:14:32 PM »
I have to give props to the NHC for the forecast work on Dorian. Particularly tricky with a stalling storm. I know there were a lot of weather balloons launched in the continental US to get extra data to help with the steering situation. I wonder how much that helped.

This is also a slam-dunk retired name give the catastrophic damage.
Agreed, NHC rocked it...again. Upper air plots are crucial, especially in these scenarios.
I was quite surprised that there's been 89 retired storm names. Waaay more than I thought.