Author Topic: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.  (Read 504 times)

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Offline WeatherHost

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Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« on: October 11, 2018, 02:46:46 PM »
Subtropical Storm Leslie Advisory Number   1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL132018
1100 AM AST Sun Sep 23 2018

...SUBTROPICAL STORM LESLIE FORMS IN THE NORTH ATLANTIC...
...FORECAST TO BE A SHORT-LIVED CYCLONE...


Still out there.  Getting stronger.  And forecast for at least another five days which will take it to at least 22 days.

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Offline vreihen

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #1 on: October 11, 2018, 07:17:35 PM »
Jim Cantore needs to show this poor neglected storm some love.....  :lol:
WU Gold Stars for everyone! :lol:

Offline Jstx

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #2 on: October 12, 2018, 03:35:05 PM »
On Wednesday I commented on Hurricane Leslie's unusual longevity and odd behavior over on the Hurricane Michael thread. I also, on another forum, quoted that same 'Leslie Advisory #1' text (above), and contrasted it with Leslie's later developments as it has wandered around the mid-Atlantic between Bermuda and the Azores.

The latest NHC advisories and prog maps show Leslie is not now expected to make a sharp turn to the SW as I had quoted from earlier NHC projections.
Leslie is now looking to continue a steady easterly track, grazing the southern Iberian Peninsula (Portugal & Spain, and also Morocco), passing through the Strait of Gibraltar, and then entering the freaking Mediterranean Sea as a tropical depression. And then who knows?

Leslie is about the strangest, most long-lived tropical system I've ever monitored (got semi-serious in the early 1970's). Leslie's NHC Advisory number is now up to #65A, don't know if this is a record-setting storm duration, but it has to be close.

And Leslie hasn't received hardly any media coverage because it's entire duration has been in the open ocean, with minimal impacts on only Bermuda and the Azores until now.

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #3 on: October 12, 2018, 04:25:10 PM »
Leslie is now looking to continue a steady easterly track, grazing the southern Iberian Peninsula (Portugal & Spain, and also Morocco),

Have you noticed where they put Michael 5 days out in the last advisory for that storm?

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #4 on: October 12, 2018, 04:47:16 PM »
Leslie's Meanderings.  Original source unknown but appears to be from Google Earth.



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Offline Jstx

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #5 on: October 12, 2018, 04:53:33 PM »
Leslie is now looking to continue a steady easterly track, grazing the southern Iberian Peninsula (Portugal & Spain, and also Morocco),

Have you noticed where they put Michael 5 days out in the last advisory for that storm?

The last time I checked into Michael's path it had been consistently progged to go generally NE/ENE past the Canadian Maritimes, crossing the North Atlantic (IIRC, roughly riding the path of the Gulf Stream), and accelerate clear over to southern Ireland, Cornwall in the SW UK by Saturday or Sunday. And past 5 days, into Brittany (NE France). All the while remaining a fairly potent extra-tropical storm, if it hangs together it could well reach into Germany, or even Poland and Russia.
I haven't looked at any satellite stuff lately (too busy), but I'd guess that Michael's remnants are still hanging together.

Of course all these many recent strange, '100 year storms that occur multiple times a year', have been predicted by certain meteorological experts (99% of them) in various well documented scientific endeavors; which 'shall not be whispered about' around here without offending some.
 :shock:  :-"  :twisted:

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #6 on: October 12, 2018, 04:56:20 PM »
Nadine '12 went to 88:

REMNANTS OF NADINE DISCUSSION NUMBER  88
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142012
1100 AM AST THU OCT 04 2012
 
BYE BYE NADINE. AFTER TRAVELING FOR OVER THREE WEEKS ACROSS THE
EASTERN ATLANTIC...AFFECTING THE AZORES TWICE...AND AFTER 88 NHC
ADVISORIES...NADINE HAS FINALLY DISSIPATED.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2012/al14/al142012.discus.088.shtml?

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #7 on: October 12, 2018, 04:59:12 PM »
I haven't looked at any satellite stuff lately (too busy), but I'd guess that Michael's remnants are still hanging together.

Last published 5 day cone for Michael put it very close to the same spot Leslie is expected to land; somewhere around Portugal.
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Offline Jstx

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #8 on: October 12, 2018, 05:01:28 PM »
Leslie's Meanderings.  Original source unknown but appears to be from Google Earth.



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Indeed, some pretty serious meanderings. I'd been keeping an eye on the NHC 'Wind History' wind field map (link on the atlc NHC page under the Leslie summary discussion) , which didn't show the actual track, but you can sort of see it.
That's a good image. If any of y'all have ever sailed those vast open waters, like making to or from the Azores (or UK/Europe), you know it's a whole lot of open water.

Offline Jstx

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #9 on: October 12, 2018, 05:10:16 PM »
I haven't looked at any satellite stuff lately (too busy), but I'd guess that Michael's remnants are still hanging together.

Last published 5 day cone for Michael put it very close to the same spot Leslie is expected to land; somewhere around Portugal.

Didn't know that, hadn't checked on the last advz on Michael. The earlier ones had it tracking into France. So something was/is now pushing it on a more southerly track.
Interesting. Now I'm wondering if Michael and Leslie are going to get together...heheh
Dang it, I know where to look up all this stuff, but one only has so much time available.  :???:

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #10 on: October 12, 2018, 05:16:44 PM »
Last published 5 day cone for Michael put it very close to the same spot Leslie is expected to land; somewhere around Portugal.

Didn't know that, hadn't checked on the last advz on Michael.

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Offline Jstx

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #11 on: October 12, 2018, 06:01:06 PM »
Last published 5 day cone for Michael put it very close to the same spot Leslie is expected to land; somewhere around Portugal.

Didn't know that, hadn't checked on the last advz on Michael.

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Zut Alors! Merde alors...Chinga  There goes the wine crop.

The latest track prog for Leslie has changed considerably.
It's now shown as tracking NE, not E, and across mid-Portugal and northern Spain, into the southern Bay of Biscayne, and into Nouvelle-Aquitaine, France.
The same general 5 day endpoint as Michael. It looks like both will go into SE France as tropical storm remnants, but they could still pack a punch.

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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #12 on: October 13, 2018, 06:38:58 AM »
Must be the masculine Leslie.  He wouldnt' stop and ask for directions.   #-o

Leslie's Meanderings.  Original source unknown but appears to be from Google Earth.



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Greg Whitehead
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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #13 on: October 13, 2018, 07:04:45 AM »
In case you didn't know it, Frank Zappa released an album of the "Americanized" version of that phrase:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zoot_Allures

Zut Alors! Merde alors...Chinga  There goes the wine crop.
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Offline Jstx

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Re: Leslie, The 'short-lived' storm that wouldn't die.
« Reply #14 on: October 13, 2018, 01:34:04 PM »
NHC has adjusted Leslie's forecast path south/rightward a bit as she approaches the Portugal coast. Looks like Leslie is now going to cross Spain and run head-on into the Pyrenees Mountains, that will end it for sure.
Ain't too often that Portugal gets hit by a hurricane.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc#Leslie

"...DEFIANT LESLIE STILL A HURRICANE... ...DANGEROUS WINDS, SURF, AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF PORTUGAL AND SPAIN LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY..."


SlowModem, good one about Leslie not asking for directions and wandering around (BTDT). As far as Zappa, never been a Deadhead, like a few tunes, but never paid much attention. Since I started with rockabilly, folk, (real) country, and blues, etc, in the '50's, maybe a bit old for it. Went more for the Eagles, Dire Straights, FlMac, Heart, etc stuff. Now if I listen to anything, it's Hawaiian, big band, and classic rock and jazz (as above).

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« Last Edit: October 13, 2018, 01:39:19 PM by Jstx »