Author Topic: Michael  (Read 2214 times)

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Offline ocala

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Michael
« on: October 06, 2018, 11:40:34 AM »
Most of the global models have a tropical system hitting anywhere from the mid Florida panhandle west to New Orleans on Wednesday.
Pretty good agreement on the models 4 days out for a system in the formative stages in the  southern Gulf.
Stay tuned.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2018, 06:40:46 PM by ocala »

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Future Michael
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2018, 05:18:52 PM »
No longer 'Future'.  Now a 50MPH TS, possible Cat 1 for Tallahassee



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Offline ocala

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Re: Michael
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2018, 06:41:09 PM »
Updated
NHC has a Cat 2, 100mph for landfall.
Still going to be to my west but I remember Charley making a hard right.
Going to keep an "eye" on this one.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2018, 06:43:27 PM by ocala »

Offline SupaWX

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Re: Michael
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2018, 09:27:31 PM »
I’ve been keeping an eye on it, should still be a tropical storm once it heads this way, assuming it does.
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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Michael
« Reply #4 on: October 08, 2018, 05:30:25 AM »
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border


Michael is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #5 on: October 08, 2018, 02:19:18 PM »
IMG_1823pp by Intheswamp, on Flickr
A low-rez camera panorama of downtown Luverne, AL, showing a bit of unsettled weather ahead of TS Michael.  Basically a south-north orientation (10° to 190°).

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #6 on: October 08, 2018, 02:27:41 PM »
Er, Cat-1 now...that was quick.

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Michael
« Reply #7 on: October 08, 2018, 06:38:12 PM »
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 22.2N  85.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 23.7N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 30.2N  85.8W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  11/1800Z 34.5N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND



Cat 3 at Landfall??

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #8 on: October 08, 2018, 11:09:57 PM »
I've heard Cat-3 at landfall from a few places....

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Michael
« Reply #9 on: October 09, 2018, 03:12:49 AM »
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018


Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model
guidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by
36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during
that time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of
28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of
the year. Less-than-normal weakening after landfall in the 48-
to 96-h period is expected due to Michael's fast forward speed of
20-30 kt. Re-strengthening as an extratropical low over water on
days 4 and 5 is forecast due to baroclinic interaction with a
frontal system and the cyclone being back over warm Atlantic waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 23.2N  85.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.7N  85.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 26.8N  86.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 29.1N  85.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 31.4N  84.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 
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Offline vreihen

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Re: Michael
« Reply #10 on: October 10, 2018, 06:31:20 AM »
Now a Cat 4 @ 140 MPH per the 6:00 AM EDT observation.....
WU Gold Stars for everyone! :lol:

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Michael
« Reply #11 on: October 10, 2018, 08:10:02 AM »
Looks nasty with tight eye this morning.
Randy

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Michael
« Reply #12 on: October 10, 2018, 08:20:39 AM »
Up to 145 on the 7AM Update
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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Michael
« Reply #13 on: October 10, 2018, 09:12:01 AM »
I hope those folks didn't underestimate Michael. At least it isn't dragging like Florence if there is any good in this mess.


Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Michael
« Reply #14 on: October 10, 2018, 09:22:11 AM »
Is it my eyes, or are they showing Hurricane force winds for Atlanta?

Maybe south of Atlanta ...  Macon, Albany.



« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 09:26:13 AM by WeatherHost »
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Offline rdsman

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Re: Michael
« Reply #15 on: October 10, 2018, 10:33:35 AM »
Michael is currently 60 miles south of Panama City Beach.  I am 175 miles NNE of Panama City Beach and it is just starting to rain here......

 
Ray

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Michael
« Reply #16 on: October 10, 2018, 11:30:12 AM »
This is going to be bad.  From what I see on TV, the Floridians have gone.  I hope they're safe.

What I'm afraid of is the people in SW Georgia.  There's not really any large population centers there, but there are a lot of small towns.  I used to work for a company in Ochlocknee, GA, and I know they get very strong storms there.  I know they're away from the storm surge, but they could be in for some very strong winds, rain, and maybe tornadoes.

I'm off today, so I guess I'll watch the coverage today and see if any reporters do anything stupid.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #17 on: October 10, 2018, 12:44:19 PM »
We're about 100 miles NNW of Panama City, Florida.  The rain has intensified over the last 30 minutes or so.  Had been drizzling all morning but now a medium rain is falling.  Wind has picked up a bit, but hasn't been strong yet...gusts around 17mph.  Just a rainy, blustery day...so far, over here in south Alabama.

Tyndall AFB is under the gun....Callaway and Panama City are both going to catch it hard.  Folks in rural areas from there well into Georgia need to hunker down and stay safe.

Looks like hurricane force winds have started battering Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe.

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Re: Michael
« Reply #18 on: October 10, 2018, 01:05:32 PM »
I'm watching a weather station on WU in the Panama City area that seems to be a Florida State station.  Of course, the readings will only last as long as there is power.  But it seems to be hanging in there.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLPANAM58#history
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Michael
« Reply #19 on: October 10, 2018, 01:10:09 PM »
Speeds up to 150.  Been a while since one has gotten progressively stronger as it approached land and was considerably higher than initially forecast.  A couple of days ago, they were only calling for Cat 1, maybe 2.  This is now bordering on Cat 5.

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« Last Edit: October 10, 2018, 01:16:13 PM by WeatherHost »
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Michael
« Reply #20 on: October 10, 2018, 01:16:11 PM »
I'm watching a weather station on WU in the Panama City area that seems to be a Florida State station.  Of course, the readings will only last as long as there is power.  But it seems to be hanging in there.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLPANAM58#history

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Randy

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Michael
« Reply #21 on: October 10, 2018, 01:30:27 PM »
Stuck on 100 MPH. Power must have gone off.


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Re: Michael
« Reply #22 on: October 10, 2018, 01:48:54 PM »
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...
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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #23 on: October 10, 2018, 02:13:00 PM »
It's a killer.  The lady with the two dogs that decided to stay because the forecasters were just trying to make it sound bad just might be having some second thoughts about now.<sigh>

NWS predicted us to get between 3/4" and 1" of rain....we've already surpassed 1".  Winds are up, but not bad...gusting up to around 18mph.

Looks like most all the stations around Panama City are not reporting....most last reported a little over an hour ago...

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Offline Intheswamp

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Re: Michael
« Reply #24 on: October 10, 2018, 02:30:32 PM »
It looks like landfall was on the south end of Tyndall AFB where there are some smaller airstrips/stations.  More precisely, at the south end of Saint Andrews Sound.  130mph winds recorded before Tyndall's before their equipment failed.  Some are saying Cat2 while traveling into southern Georgia.  13' storm surge anticipated in Apalachicola...many did not evacuate. 

A 90 mile swatch of hurricane force winds of this strength....bad.  ...and then, the rain. :-(

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