Author Topic: Florence  (Read 3333 times)

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Offline ocala

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Florence
« on: September 09, 2018, 06:43:27 AM »
Looking like mid Atlantic north. TPC says RI through tomorrow with the storm becoming a major by Monday night. You guys be safe up there.

Offline galfert

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Re: Florence
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2018, 03:00:36 PM »
Well it isn't just Florence to be worried about. There are these other storms all line up on the Atlantic. Here in Florida looks like we might miss Florence but Isaac is showing a lower path and it is yet too soon to tell when it will turn North...but they always seem to turn North at some point. You would think living in Florida we would be ready for this and at least I know what to expect and how to prepare. But the more hurricanes I go through and come out unscathed from the more I fear my luck is running out.  Dreadful.
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Offline Dr Obbins

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Re: Florence
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2018, 06:18:13 PM »
Heading this way. All the stores are worse than a Black Friday sale and are out of bottled water. Here is a good camera link if it stays sup:
http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/

Offline galfert

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Re: Florence
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2018, 07:18:44 PM »
Neat camera...It is a PTZ
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Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Florence
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2018, 08:13:23 PM »
I think we should get outta the way of Florence. This thing looks like it will be a storm like we cannot imagine. If the track and intensity hold, we are going to have big problems. The stalling out is very scary to look at on the models.


Offline CW2274

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Re: Florence
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2018, 08:53:18 PM »
I think we should get outta the way of Florence. This thing looks like it will be a storm like we cannot imagine. If the track and intensity hold, we are going to have big problems. The stalling out is very scary to look at on the models.
And if the track holds true (models are getting really good at this now), you'll be in the NE quadrant of the storm too. I used to live just east of Henderson Dr. from you so I'm very familiar with the terrain. Even if you're up against the New River, I still thing you're too far inland to fear storm surge, but obviously torrential rain, flooding, wind damage, and power outages are almost certain if all comes to fruition.
If in doubt, get out.

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Florence
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2018, 09:12:29 PM »
I think we need to see a little more data before pulling the trigger and running, but if it gets any closer than Wilmington, I think the best thing to do is evacuate. The stalling out and raining for more than a day will become dangerous. I am worried for everyone in SE NC with what we are being shown on these models at this time. I hope people are not taking this one lightly. It is still a long way out, and that is good at least.


Offline CW2274

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Re: Florence
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2018, 10:06:16 PM »
^^^ BTW, as I look at your "weathercloud" banner, I guess that's what it's called, it's displaying Zulu (GMT) time in case you're unaware.

Offline ncpilot

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Re: Florence
« Reply #8 on: September 10, 2018, 10:04:36 AM »
First storm since Floyd that has me worried (been in Wilmington since 1998)... as I described to someone else... "worried enough to think about buying a generator", "worried enough to find the safest spot in house for sleeping", because why oh why do they have to hit at night?? Re evacuating inland... think Fran and Hugo. I know people living in Hillsborough (Chapel Hill for reference) that were without power longer than coastal areas after Fran, Hugo blew thru to Charlotte... I'd rather be in my own house...

I'll brave Walmart later this morning...  :lol: been making ice since Sat...
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Offline ncpilot

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Re: Florence
« Reply #9 on: September 10, 2018, 10:15:49 AM »
Makes it worthwhile... just 5 min away thru "backend" of my neighborhood...intracoastal...
« Last Edit: September 10, 2018, 10:18:00 AM by ncpilot »
Marc
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Offline Jstx

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Re: Florence
« Reply #10 on: September 10, 2018, 12:46:40 PM »

...worried...

Make sure you have a permanent marker pen handy...
/s

Good luck if it tracks anywhere near you, these monsters are no fun.
Florence is progged to get trapped a short distance inland without much in the way of steering flow, with "beyond extreme" rainfall in a wide area.
Florence may be similar in behavior to Harvey last year, an initial devastating wind field on (first) landfall, then a lingering extreme rainfall event slightly inland.

On top of a potential Cat 4+ hurricane strike, there's this:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd

Quote
... By the weekend into next week expect some of the energy within the overall mean trough to eject across southern Canada, just far enough north of the weakening Florence to leave the system in a region of weak steering flow.  This may set up a potentially extreme rainfall event for portions of North Carolina and Virginia as the inflow off the warm Gulf Stream provides copious amounts of moisture.
...
Aside from the initial wind/wave hazards with a potentially major landfalling hurricane, the heavy rain and flooding threat will continue for several days due to the combination of rare events--stalled tropical system near the coast with inflow across the warm Gulf Stream at the Atlantic's warmest time of year.
Though NWP rainfall should not be taken literally, information is contained within the output and the rainfall signal is striking when taken in concert with the ensembles.  The location of heavy/extreme rainfall will not be known until the short range, but the probability of it occurring in this scenario is high and the probability of it occurring over land continues to increase.

Offline Dr Obbins

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Re: Florence
« Reply #11 on: September 10, 2018, 06:33:31 PM »
Schools closed, county gov closing at noon tomorrow. The average of the spaghetti models is north of Wilmington for now.

Offline CW2274

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Re: Florence
« Reply #12 on: September 10, 2018, 07:14:07 PM »
Don't get me wrong, this is a bad gal, but more sensationalism from the national media as I just heard Jay Gray from NBC news inform us that...
"Florence is visible from space" #-o :roll: ](*,)

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Florence
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2018, 07:43:20 PM »
How much faith do we have in the AVNO model? It has been offshore for just about every run.


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Florence
« Reply #14 on: September 11, 2018, 06:10:45 AM »
Don't get me wrong, this is a bad gal, but more sensationalism from the national media as I just heard Jay Gray from NBC news inform us that...
"Florence is visible from space" #-o :roll: ](*,)

Ditto
Randy

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Florence
« Reply #15 on: September 11, 2018, 07:30:37 AM »
Now the beast is going to make a left turn! We don't know where either, Onslow landfall and then the left turn?


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Florence
« Reply #16 on: September 11, 2018, 07:56:09 AM »
Slow landfall brings lots of rain. Hope its not another Harvey.
Randy

Offline DoctorKnow

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Re: Florence
« Reply #17 on: September 11, 2018, 07:59:02 AM »
Valentine. We don't know where to go! The GFS and Euro have the thing hitting us and then going backwards and hitting Myrtle Beach and then going towards Greenville SC!


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Florence
« Reply #18 on: September 11, 2018, 08:17:18 AM »
Stay safe and don't get caught in traffic jam. In 2009 Ike wiped out Galveston, part of family living in Houston area got caught in traffic jam with  millions trying to leave at once. They finally gave up after 5 hours and turned around.

Randy

Offline CW2274

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Re: Florence
« Reply #19 on: September 11, 2018, 03:49:59 PM »
Kinda weird knowing that the mere one year old, multi-million dollar, four story beach home I just stayed in three short months ago on north Topsail Island may not even exist in a few days as Florence is progged at the moment to make landfall exactly there. Fifteen foot storm surge would devastate that beautiful island, and no doubt, just the beginning of what will follow further inland.
Like Randy says, if you're leaving, do it sooner than later....and I'd be prepared to not be back any time soon should the worst occur. Damn....

Offline CW2274

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Re: Florence
« Reply #20 on: September 11, 2018, 05:42:04 PM »
Just saw the latest rainfall est., the entire SE coast of N.C. is expecting over 20 inches of rain. Flooding will surely contaminate potable water, hope those staying are bleaching their bathtubs, ect. and filling them with water to drink and cook with. I've done that once before and fortunately didn't need it, hopefully the same will apply here, but ain't lookin' good.

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Florence
« Reply #21 on: September 12, 2018, 12:19:29 AM »
I just read this on the NWS Wilmington forecast discussion page.  They say "storm of a lifetime."  That is serious talk.  I hear estimates of 35 inches of rain possible.  Possible tropical storm force winds coming into Tennessee (usually the storms die out over the mountains or turn north).  This is going to be bad.  Very bad.  And there will probably be some people that try to ride it out and have to be rescued or recovered.

>This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the
Carolina coast, and that`s saying a lot given the impacts
we`ve seen from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd,
and Matthew. I can`t emphasize enough the potential for
unbelievable damage from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding
with this storm.<

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Greg Whitehead
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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Florence
« Reply #22 on: September 13, 2018, 06:50:51 AM »
Down to 110.  Still a lot stronger than I'd want to face, but no where near what it was.  Rain will be the biggest problem.

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Florence
« Reply #23 on: September 13, 2018, 07:32:57 AM »
Yesterday the Weather Channel sensationalism, had it ear marked as  'Storm of a lifetime'. Making this cat 2 storm strongest in at least 80 years?
Randy

Offline Jasiu

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Re: Florence
« Reply #24 on: September 13, 2018, 08:05:33 AM »
Time will tell. If the track pans out, the wind speed will be the least of the worries, particularly for those inland.