Author Topic: Fall/Winter '18/'19  (Read 8415 times)

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Offline bks97

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #200 on: December 06, 2018, 07:06:51 AM »
Where the skies cleared this morning in northwestern Minnesota, temperatures dipped to 9 below.  But here in the north central part of the state, the clouds linger, and the temperature is 15-20 degrees warmer.   Still, I welcome the gradual clearing and colder temps coming our way later today, because the change will usher in a string of mostly sunny days, something we have lacked during the past couple of months. A Twin Cities TV weathercaster said last evening that this has been the cloudiest autumn in 35 years.

A farmer friend once told me that his mother, who grew up in Germany, referred to these stretches of cold, gray, cloudy days in the weeks before Christmas as “Advent weather.”  Whatever one calls it, I will be glad to see some “cold sunshine” take over.  A winter afternoon walk in our woods with my dog always seems better when the sky is blue.



Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #201 on: December 06, 2018, 08:19:30 PM »
LOL, TV weatherman has greatly downgraded the big winter storm for this weekend.  For instance, Stillwater to get .3", instead of 4.5".  The reason why is temps aren't expected to get as cold as thought.


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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #202 on: December 08, 2018, 09:39:06 AM »
First below zero of this winter.
Valentine, Miller Field (United States) -4.0°F

Still, have snow from last weekend storm.
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« Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 09:42:00 AM by ValentineWeather »
Randy

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #203 on: December 08, 2018, 10:31:44 AM »
I hate snow.

I hate zero and below.

I'm sure I've not seen my last of either though.

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #204 on: December 08, 2018, 11:01:35 AM »
In town, roads are still ice covered in areas for those that have never driven on slippery roads you learn what antilock brakes are all about.
Randy

Offline chief-david

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #205 on: December 08, 2018, 11:32:48 AM »
I hate snow.

I hate zero and below.

I'm sure I've not seen my last of either though.
Please do not move to Minnesota. We thank you.  ;)
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Offline Bunty

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #206 on: December 08, 2018, 04:39:18 PM »
"Today, I wanted to crawl in my bed and hide." KFOR-4  meteorologist Emily Sutton embarrassed about forecast for 3-4" of snow in Oklahoma City this weekend, which went total bust.  However, the southern TX panhandle, Lubbock, got 10".  The storm's low was set to track through the middle of Oklahoma, I-40, but changed to tracking 30 miles south of the Red River. It's rare to see such an abrupt change in a storm in such a short of a period. We went from a massive snowstorm for much of western and northern parts of Oklahoma to near zero precipitation for much of the state. But while at Wal-Mart on Wednesday,  the bread, milk and other food sales were sure  well up.

« Last Edit: December 08, 2018, 04:53:12 PM by Bunty »

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #207 on: December 08, 2018, 05:31:43 PM »
NOAA office here doesn't concern themselves with ratings or ad revenue, so .....

"National Weather Service Paducah KY
1121 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 320 AM CST Fri Dec 7 2018

A significant southward shift has occurred in the model forecast
tracks over the past 24 hours.  ..."


No French Toast on their faces.  This time.

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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #208 on: December 08, 2018, 08:03:30 PM »
Can't really blame the TV meteorologist when the main models were pointing for a different track. Sometimes, however, its good to hold off on winter storm watches if model deviation exists.
North Platte had something similar, not a total bust but even issued a winter storm warning for 6-8" and only ended up with 1".
Models seem to be a little off with our last storm forecasting colder temperatures and 12-18" snow we got more rain and only 6".  It was an unusual spring type storm with negative tilt for this time of year.
Randy

Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #209 on: December 08, 2018, 09:03:33 PM »
Granted, the impact of snow vs rain is completely different, but remember, we're only talking 1 inch of snow (equates to 0.10" of rain normally) vs 6" of snow which is 0.60" of rain. Where exactly will that snow line be? How many of you would truly complain about them missing a QPF of one half inch. Prediction stuff ain't easy.

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #210 on: December 08, 2018, 11:18:28 PM »
Forecasting amounts, especially snow, remains a very tricky/difficult task. It may remain so. Some meteorologists feel that forecasting amounts for a location will never be possible. Of course "never" is a dangerous word.

Valentine, the storm that gave you less snow and more rain was the same one that our NWS got just right for us in northern KS. At the same time, they missed by many inches for their NE area.

Is winter forecasting more difficult than summer?

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #211 on: December 09, 2018, 05:35:20 AM »


Is winter forecasting more difficult than summer?

I think so. And winter is when most people pay attention to the forecast because of the impacts from freezing weather. 
Randy

Offline Jasiu

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #212 on: December 09, 2018, 09:02:29 AM »
Any reports from NC / VA / etc.?  SERIOUS snowfall...

Offline miraculon

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #213 on: December 09, 2018, 11:15:34 AM »
Quote
Any reports from NC / VA / etc.?  SERIOUS snowfall...

On GREarth and GRLevel3, I see 16" in Watauga County in NC. I also see 12-15" reports elsewhere in the area.

Here in NE Lower Michigan, we have an army of snowplows to attack the white stuff, but I would guess that they are not equipped for this kind of thing in that area.

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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #214 on: December 10, 2018, 07:14:56 PM »
CPC and some of the other crystal ball types sites are hinting at a fairly significant warmup beginning towards the end of this week.  Are your local NWS sites taking that trend?

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Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #215 on: December 10, 2018, 11:15:17 PM »
While our local NWS hasn't pointed a big warm up, the temperatures and the discussion all tend toward above average temperatures for this  area. The range will be mid 40s to even a low 50s or two over the next 7 days. I do not see any mention of impending change.

South central NE and north central KS is my area.


Offline alanb

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #216 on: December 10, 2018, 11:42:25 PM »
While our local NWS hasn't pointed a big warm up, the temperatures and the discussion all tend toward above average temperatures for this  area. The range will be mid 40s to even a low 50s or two over the next 7 days. I do not see any mention of impending change.

South central NE and north central KS is my area.
I wish we would get that warm up in east central IA. It would give me a chance to clean up the rest of the leaves that fell late.
Alan

Offline DRoberts

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #217 on: December 11, 2018, 09:56:45 AM »
CPC and some of the other crystal ball types sites are hinting at a fairly significant warmup beginning towards the end of this week.  Are your local NWS sites taking that trend?

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Offline CW2274

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Re: Fall/Winter '18/'19
« Reply #218 on: Yesterday at 01:26:22 AM »
As I check some local obs, there's a RAWS ~8200' in the Catalina Mountains that's checking in with a dew point of -35F. :shock: Guess there's some dry air aloft.
« Last Edit: Yesterday at 01:28:53 AM by CW2274 »

 

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