Author Topic: OrganicForecasting  (Read 1544 times)

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Offline jdrenken

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OrganicForecasting
« on: July 20, 2018, 12:57:45 PM »
How can we have a long range sub-forum w/o one dedicated to organicforecasting? Away we go!

Offline Poconosnow

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #1 on: July 20, 2018, 04:12:00 PM »
I am extremely glad that though accu forums may shut its doors that a place to discuss the elegancy of the OFM, organic forecasting method, will still exist.

I can say that after years of following along with the OFM and all of the pieces that it's made of, that I will never look at forecasting the same. 

Sniff the pattern from miles away and work out the details as they come.  Hopefully some of the refugees and the natives can have a peak at what makes it tick and enjoy it as much as I and many others do.
« Last Edit: July 20, 2018, 04:14:27 PM by Poconosnow »

Offline plowxpress

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #2 on: July 21, 2018, 07:46:21 PM »
Hey Poc, glad to see this organic over here now. I won't be in here much until it gets colder as I am just too busy during the warmer times. I can't wait to be in here for winter threats.........some LJS action  ;)

Offline geeter1

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #3 on: July 22, 2018, 10:13:29 AM »
Glad to find you guys, and looking forward to winter. :cool:
Always thinking snow

Offline Poconosnow

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #4 on: July 22, 2018, 11:08:04 AM »
Hey Poc, glad to see this organic over here now. I won't be in here much until it gets colder as I am just too busy during the warmer times. I can't wait to be in here for winter threats.........some LJS action  ;)

Yes, little Japanese snowmen will live on

They usually wait till December before plotting their attacks on the east coast of the US. 

But we will ready'

Offline Bruiser

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #5 on: July 22, 2018, 04:35:10 PM »
Everyone knows that Organic forecasting is hokum ;)  Boy, I wonder if I should change my ID here to RobB instead of Bruiser.  Accu peeps may never get used to my current name on this forum :)

Offline Miller A

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #6 on: July 22, 2018, 07:13:47 PM »
No one really knew you there, either!  :lol: This one will take a little getting used to.

Offline Miller A

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #7 on: July 22, 2018, 07:21:48 PM »
Organic forecasting?

Does that mean its kale and chile today, and hot tomale?


Offline PA Snow 84

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2018, 02:37:26 PM »
Organic forecasting?

Does that mean its kale and chile today, and hot tomale?

At least save it for a page topper  :roll:
Winter 2017/2018

PA - 70.5"; Avg. 49"
NJ - 45.75"; Avg. 26"

Offline Old Tele man

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2018, 05:42:01 PM »
Actually the name/title is intriguing, as I personally have absolutely NO idea what OrganicForecasting is. GOOGLED it, but really didn't help. So, I'll just hang around and listen (metaphorically speaking) to your chatter...some weather eavesdropping.
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Offline jdrenken

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2018, 10:47:27 PM »
Actually the name/title is intriguing, as I personally have absolutely NO idea what OrganicForecasting is. GOOGLED it, but really didn't help. So, I'll just hang around and listen (metaphorically speaking) to your chatter...some weather eavesdropping.

Organicforecasting is another way of utilizing teleconnection forecasting techniques and applying them to the CONUS. Perfect example ia how the Bering Sea Rule combines the WPO/EPO & PNA regions to get a 17-21 day lead time. Look up Wave 5 pattern and NCAR for an introduction besides my paper on the BSR & EAR.

Lately I've been forecasting pattern recognition techniques using the changes of the daily Southern Oscillation Index.

A series of peer review papers is our goal for all methods of organicforecasting.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2018, 10:49:50 PM by jdrenken »

Offline OSNW3

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Re: OrganicForecasting
« Reply #11 on: August 06, 2018, 12:37:38 PM »
I have a couple ongoing Bering Sea Rule projects that are on the Internet.

1. Day 19-24 Daily 2mT & MSLP Change (Direct Link)
2. Extension via RRWT & CPC 6 to 10 Day Analogs Lead (Direct Link)
3. Spatial Correlation metric (Direct Link)

Questions or comments please let me know!