Author Topic: Winter Outlook climate prediction center  (Read 1114 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4860
Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« on: October 20, 2017, 09:05:59 AM »
Latest from climate prediction center: October 19th A few changes from September outlook with some below normal odds now dipping into northern areas. This is 3 month for Dec, Jan, Feb
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]  [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
Randy

Offline Aardvark

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
  • www.desmoinesweather.org
    • Des Moines Iowa Weather and Climate
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #1 on: October 20, 2017, 09:38:53 AM »
Winters here depend a lot on what is happening up in Alberta ..  Normally (whatever that is),  about in Dec, Jan  we get the cold blast of arctic air,  February and March are crap shoots, April some snow and into about the middle of May could see some snow but the temps are too warm for much. Although in april we have had some nasty snow.

What bothers me about winter is the ice.  Cold I can deal with, huge heating bill. The ice is the nasty. I put out in the drives and sidewalk a less caustic salt stufff, it still has problems with vegetation, but I would now want another fracture.

For us we have plugged in our cars for 40 years, this year we opted for new and they do not have engine block heaters.  this should be interesting.

What effect with all the ash in the sky from the California fires, will they be nuclei for snow/rain particles?
Davis VP2 Plus; 24h  FARS;  Soil Moisture/Temp Station;Weatherlink ;
https://www.desmoinesweather.org

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4860
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #2 on: October 20, 2017, 09:51:35 AM »
Yes Ice is the issue around here also. I'm actually new to real winters spending most of life in Southwest, going to the store can be an adventure at times. Parking lots are especially slick with everyone walking like penguins.  Amazing more elderly don't break bones from falls.
Randy

Offline Aardvark

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2015
  • www.desmoinesweather.org
    • Des Moines Iowa Weather and Climate
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #3 on: October 20, 2017, 10:04:57 AM »
Yes Ice is the issue around here also. I'm actually new to real winters spending most of life in Southwest, going to the store can be an adventure at times. Parking lots are especially slick with everyone walking like penguins.  Amazing more elderly don't break bones from falls.

Yesterday at the doctor,  I found out that I am in the elderly category.  heck that was an eye opener
Davis VP2 Plus; 24h  FARS;  Soil Moisture/Temp Station;Weatherlink ;
https://www.desmoinesweather.org

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4860
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #4 on: October 20, 2017, 10:25:59 AM »
Yes Ice is the issue around here also. I'm actually new to real winters spending most of life in Southwest, going to the store can be an adventure at times. Parking lots are especially slick with everyone walking like penguins.  Amazing more elderly don't break bones from falls.

Yesterday at the doctor,  I found out that I am in the elderly category.  heck that was an eye opener

I'm getting there.  :oops: First thing to go besides ability to focus up close was loss of spring in legs mid 50's. I have a friend and wife in their 80's walking a couple miles everyday. I think it's our best defense to stay out of a walker.
Randy

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3404
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #5 on: October 20, 2017, 02:48:13 PM »
Saw this yesterday.
Don't like the below normal precip for my area.

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4860
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #6 on: October 20, 2017, 03:07:47 PM »
Saw this yesterday.
Don't like the below normal precip for my area.

I bet all the snowbirds low it though.  :-)
Randy

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3566
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #7 on: October 20, 2017, 03:18:11 PM »
This came out today.

CLIMATE...90 degree days at Tucson International Airport continue
  to mount, with the 179th day of 90+ degree high temperatures for 
  2017 yesterday. This breaks the record of 178 days which occurred
  in 1910 and 1989. More to come.  :-|

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3404
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #8 on: October 20, 2017, 03:40:39 PM »
Saw this yesterday.
Don't like the below normal precip for my area.

I bet all the snowbirds low it though.  :-)
Man I hate them. They really are a PIA!!!

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3566
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #9 on: October 20, 2017, 04:00:47 PM »
Saw this yesterday.
Don't like the below normal precip for my area.

I bet all the snowbirds low it though.  :-)
Man I hate them. They really are a PIA!!!
Know how to blind a Snowbird?






Put a windshield in front of them.

Online SLOweather

  • Administrator
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3403
    • http://www.sloweather.com
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #10 on: October 21, 2017, 09:53:16 AM »
Heh, here we get sunbirds... people from AZ, especially Phoenix/Mesa, escaping the summer heat for the cooler weather of the Central California Coast. :)

Offline Bushman

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6881
    • Eagle Bay Weather
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #11 on: October 21, 2017, 10:14:34 AM »
Below normal temps + Above normal precip = killer snow ski season in PNW and AB/BC. :)

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3404
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #12 on: October 21, 2017, 02:17:09 PM »
Saw this yesterday.
Don't like the below normal precip for my area.

I bet all the snowbirds low it though.  :-)
Man I hate them. They really are a PIA!!!
Know how to blind a Snowbird?






Put a windshield in front of them.
LOL. :lol:  First time I heard that. I'll have to pass that on.

Offline WheatonRon

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 856
    • WUnderground
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #13 on: October 21, 2017, 08:52:12 PM »
My gut tells me that such forecasts have the accuracy of a warped slide rule! Woops, I just dated myself!  Seriously, have there been studies comparing such forecasts to actual results? I would hope us amateur weather folks with PWSs are helping the professional weather folks model such forecasts!
Davis VP2 with 24 hour FARS, SHT31 (3 complete systems-2 for uploading to the internet the other system for test and play); CWOP--CW5020 and FW3075; WU--KILWHEAT17 and KILWHEAT36; WeatherCloud.net; CoCoRaHS--IL-DP-132; Rainwise 111

Offline Bushman

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6881
    • Eagle Bay Weather
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #14 on: October 21, 2017, 09:50:43 PM »
Google "La Nina/El Nino hindcast"

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4860
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #15 on: October 22, 2017, 08:37:31 AM »
My gut tells me that such forecasts have the accuracy of a warped slide rule! Woops, I just dated myself!  Seriously, have there been studies comparing such forecasts to actual results? I would hope us amateur weather folks with PWSs are helping the professional weather folks model such forecasts!

They've been wrong before, just this August they had 40-50% chance above normal temperatures and our mean temperature came in -3 to -4 around this area of plains. And yes they really blew last winter with the California forecast.

Here is the monthly look for upcoming November.
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]
 [ You are not allowed to view attachments ]


 
« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 08:47:48 AM by ValentineWeather »
Randy

Offline SlowModem

  • Weather at the speed of dialup!
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6527
  • WX @ 26.4 kbs
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #16 on: October 22, 2017, 02:48:17 PM »
Saw this yesterday.
Don't like the below normal precip for my area.

I bet all the snowbirds low it though.  :-)
Man I hate them. They really are a PIA!!!

You've got to watch out for those cars with the little blue haired ladies driving them!
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline SlowModem

  • Weather at the speed of dialup!
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6527
  • WX @ 26.4 kbs
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #17 on: October 22, 2017, 02:50:49 PM »
I'm getting there.  :oops: First thing to go besides ability to focus up close was loss of spring in legs mid 50's. I have a friend and wife in their 80's walking a couple miles everyday. I think it's our best defense to stay out of a walker.

A couple of years ago when my back went out, I was using a walker, elevated toilet seat, etc.  I tell people, "I've seen the future, and it's not pretty!"  :o
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline SlowModem

  • Weather at the speed of dialup!
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6527
  • WX @ 26.4 kbs
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #18 on: October 22, 2017, 02:54:33 PM »
Know how to blind a Snowbird?






Put a windshield in front of them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ogw9TpXfuM
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA


Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3566
    • Conditions @ CW2274

Online SLOweather

  • Administrator
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3403
    • http://www.sloweather.com
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #20 on: October 22, 2017, 04:35:54 PM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Ogw9TpXfuM

Been a while since I saw that for the first time. I didn't realize that was an Imperial the ol' gal was driving. That might have been my grandma! :)
« Last Edit: October 22, 2017, 06:26:43 PM by SLOweather »

Offline Glenn

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 306
Re: Winter Outlook climate prediction center
« Reply #21 on: October 29, 2017, 03:45:06 PM »
Ugh! This doesn't bode well for our winter hobbies; skiing and snowmobiling. I hope it's not a repeat of the winter we had the year before last. That was depressingly dismal.
Acurite 5 in 1 Pro+
Southern VT
Connecticut

 

anything