The 5PM 120hr position according to the NHC is roughly the same as the 11AM. Mid/Southern Keys. Still no northward jog yet. The further west it gets the more worried I get.

At a slight time offset of course (6 hour later fcst), the Latitude is the same 24.4N, but Longitude is bumped 0.3 to the west, 81.5W, and wind is down 5Kt.

Hardly counts ATT, but official NHC fcst has been getting nudged westward for a while, adjusting for more of the models sliding west before the expected turn NW/N. Kinda looks like Irma's on rails overall.

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number

**26**NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017

**1100 AM AST** Tue Sep 05 2017

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 16.8N 58.4W 155 KT 180 MPH

12H 06/0000Z 17.2N 60.3W 155 KT 180 MPH

24H 06/1200Z 18.1N 63.0W 150 KT 175 MPH

36H 07/0000Z 19.1N 65.9W 145 KT 165 MPH

48H 07/1200Z 20.1N 68.7W 140 KT 160 MPH

72H 08/1200Z 21.4N 74.0W 135 KT 155 MPH

96H 09/1200Z 22.7N 78.3W 130 KT 150 MPH

120H 10/1200Z 24.4N 81.2W 125 KT 145 MPH

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Hurricane Irma Discussion Number

**27**NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017

**500 PM AST** Tue Sep 05 2017

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 17.1N 59.8W 160 KT 185 MPH

12H 06/0600Z 17.6N 61.8W 155 KT 180 MPH

24H 06/1800Z 18.5N 64.6W 150 KT 175 MPH

36H 07/0600Z 19.5N 67.3W 145 KT 165 MPH

48H 07/1800Z 20.4N 70.1W 140 KT 160 MPH

72H 08/1800Z 21.6N 75.3W 135 KT 155 MPH

96H 09/1800Z 22.7N 79.3W 125 KT 145 MPH

120H 10/1800Z 24.4N 81.5W 120 KT 140 MPH