Author Topic: Next few days around the state  (Read 175 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Scalphunter

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2221
Next few days around the state
« on: December 28, 2016, 12:32:22 AM »
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
604 PM AKST Tue Dec 27 2016

.DISCUSSION...
A period of active weather is in store for northern Alaska with
multiple weather systems moving west across the forecast area
into next week. The first system will be impacting the region by
Wednesday evening. The GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement with
the explosive cyclogenisis of low pressure near the western end of
the Aleutian islands. This system rapidly deepens roughly 50 mb
over the next 24 hours to a 936 mb off the east coast of Kamchatka
by 3PM Wednesday. The NAM is 10 mb weaker with this low so prefer
the GFS/ECMWF storm track and depth since this is on the edge of
the NAM domain and thinking the NAM is not strong enough. This low
center continues to track northeast and weaken to 984 mb over the
Chukchi Sea by Friday afternoon.

The weather is relatively quiet this afternoon across the forecast
area. A weak surface low and associated trough in the western
Interior will progress east through Wed night bringing 1 to 2
inches of snow from the Brooks Range south.

A very strong weather front associated with the low near Kamchatka
will move into the eastern Bering Sea on Wednesday and into the
west coast by evening. East to southeast winds will increase with
widespread winds 30 to 40 mph and higher gusts along with heavy
snow and blizzard conditions in the coastal areas. The front will
continue to push east across the state through Friday bringing a
wide swath of 6 to 10 inches of snow from the west coast to the
Alcan border. Enough warm air will be pushed north to bring some
freezing rain late Wednesday night and Thursday to the Yukon Delta
and a chance and to the southern Seward Peninsula coast. Strong
west to southwest winds will develop behind the initial front.
This may knock heavily snow laden trees down in the Interior and
has the potential to cause power outages.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 2 and 4...A long duration and fetch
of west to southwest winds behind the initial front will result in
elevated sea levels along Saint Lawrence island and the Yukon
Delta. In fact, surge values are high from the Yukon Delta to
Point Hope but the influence of sea ice on the propagation of an
elevated sea level is uncertain at this time. High surf and
possibly some minor coastal flooding is possible along the Yukon
Delta and southern shore of St Lawrence island where there is
limited sea ice.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blizzard Watch for AKZ201-AKZ207-AKZ209-AKZ211-AKZ212-AKZ213.

Winter Storm Watch for AKZ205-AKZ208-AKZ210-AKZ214-AKZ215-AKZ216-
AKZ217-AKZ219-AKZ221-AKZ227.

Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ210.

Gale Warning for PKZ210-PKZ220-PKZ225.

Small Craft Advisory for PKZ210.
&&

$$

DEC 16


           
 

Offline Scalphunter

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2221
Re: Next few days around the state
« Reply #1 on: December 28, 2016, 08:12:42 PM »
Here is what we are in for tomorrow

Winter Storm Watch
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 PM AKST WED DEC 28 2016

AKZ223-291500-
/O.EXB.PAFG.WS.A.0011.161230T1100Z-161231T1400Z/
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...
HARDING/BIRCH LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE
220 PM AKST WED DEC 28 2016

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FAIRBANKS HAS ISSUED A WINTER
STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* SNOW...5 TO 10 INCHES.

* VISIBILITY...ONE HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES IN BLOWING SNOW.

* WINDS...WEST WINDS GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND BECOME HEAVY
  IN THE EVENING AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT. SNOW WILL TAPER OFF
  DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. STRONG WINDS AND AREAS OF BLOWING
  SNOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH
  EARLY FRIDAY.

* IMPACTS...TRAVEL AND OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES WILL BE DIFFICULT.
  TREES MAY FALL ON TO POWER LINES AND RESULT IN POWER OUTAGES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ONE OR
MORE SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS.

&&



Offline Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 6861
    • Meteotemplate
Re: Next few days around the state
« Reply #2 on: December 28, 2016, 08:34:24 PM »
Its funny', one of the commercial weather forecasting services issued a forecast published in one of the major newspaper with temps around -22C (-7F) for next week :D It is total nonsense. I spoke with my colleagues today, those people are total idiots, they have no idea how to read the models. There is no sign whatsoever of any major decrease in temps. During the day we have between 0 and 5C and during night 0 to -5C, but -22C? No way.... idiots