Author Topic: Hurricane Matthew  (Read 9119 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4716
    • Fitzweather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #75 on: October 08, 2016, 11:14:04 AM »
I don't feel the wind was over rated. If the storm would have taken a track 25 miles further west we would be singing a tune of praise. Just think, 25 miles made all the difference. How often is the path of "normal" weather predictions 25 miles off?

I think this is a fair assessment. The eye wall was where the serious winds were, and thankfully, for the most part, it is remained offshore.

I think the lesson from this storm is just not to depend solely on weather models for forecasting. I mean, 5 days ago, the NHC said that North Carolina was going to get slammed with wind, and though serious rainfall is occurring their, that's still different from significant wind damage.

My thoughts and prayers go out to all of those affected. I lost my house back in June due to flooding - it's not an easy ride.

In conclusion, though I think media is quite annoying (I work in media unfortunately for now, so I see it every day), the storm turned out to still be serious, and I feel like lives were saved from the evacuations - even if it was due more to rain.
Weather Software-> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, GRLevel2, WXSim, and Radarscope.
Weather Station-> Ambient Weather WS-1090 Fine Offset
Weather Station Software-> Weather Display 10.37S, Cumulus 1.94
CoCoRaHS ID->  WV-KN-27
Administrator-> www.fitzweather.org

Offline W3DRM

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3312
    • Carson Valley Weather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #76 on: October 08, 2016, 01:22:32 PM »
I just noticed that Ocala PWS feed has stopped as of 9:15am yesterday, Oct 7. Hope he is okay and it's just a loss of power causing the outage.
Don - W3DRM - Minden, Nevada --- Blitzortung ID: 808 --- FlightRadar24 ID: F-KRNO2
Davis Wireless VP2, WD 10.37s72,
StartWatch, VirtualVP, VPLive, , Win10 Pro
--- Logitech HD Pro C920 webcam
--- RIPE Atlas Probe - 32849

Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 479
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #77 on: October 08, 2016, 02:42:03 PM »
I think the lesson from this storm is just not to depend solely on weather models for forecasting. I mean, 5 days ago, the NHC said that North Carolina was going to get slammed with wind, and though serious rainfall is occurring their, that's still different from significant wind damage.

Let's remember that even the NHC states their track error 120 hours out is, on average, 175 miles. IMHO they were pretty accurate being Matthew was labout 50 miles from the coast of NC.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2016, 02:44:50 PM by hankster »

Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1248
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #78 on: October 08, 2016, 03:14:35 PM »
I don't feel the wind was over rated. If the storm would have taken a track 25 miles further west we would be singing a tune of praise. Just think, 25 miles made all the difference. How often is the path of "normal" weather predictions 25 miles off?

That's true, and we have been so lucky that the storm has weakened considerably from what it was down near Jacksonville FL. Areas south and west of where I am have started becoming impassible. Some have even drowned now a few counties to my southwest. It has been raining heavy non stop in that area near Lumberton all day. Some totals are already over 12 inches.


Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4716
    • Fitzweather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #79 on: October 08, 2016, 04:51:41 PM »
I just noticed that Ocala PWS feed has stopped as of 9:15am yesterday, Oct 7. Hope he is okay and it's just a loss of power causing the outage.

At first readings, Florida doesn't seem to have been impacted as bad as feared, I hope the same for Ocala!  8-)

I am very concerned about folks in North Carolina. Major flooding going on in the eastern half of state from Charlotte eastward. This from Brad Panovich, WCNC chief meteorologist.
Weather Software-> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, GRLevel2, WXSim, and Radarscope.
Weather Station-> Ambient Weather WS-1090 Fine Offset
Weather Station Software-> Weather Display 10.37S, Cumulus 1.94
CoCoRaHS ID->  WV-KN-27
Administrator-> www.fitzweather.org

Offline stevebrtx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 582
    • Lake Chapala Mexico Weather Net
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #80 on: October 08, 2016, 05:24:04 PM »
I see they moved tonites NASCAR race in Charlotte to noon tomorrow due to the weather and I wouldn't bet on clearing by then.

Offline Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 8567
    • Meteotemplate
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #81 on: October 08, 2016, 05:36:18 PM »
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3559
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #82 on: October 08, 2016, 05:52:18 PM »
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.
Peak is around middle of Sept., but I wouldn't say this is unusual. Tropical systems tend to form more in the western Atlantic later in the season vice early on when tropical waves move off west Africa.

Offline ValentineWeather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4843
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #83 on: October 08, 2016, 05:56:39 PM »
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.

I'm sure its connected with planet warming with all the predictions being inaccurately predicated how global warm up would cause multiple typhoons and hurricanes. Oh wait the tropics have been very inactive last decade or so. I read where New England now hasn't had a hurricane in over 25 years.  :lol:
Randy

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3398
    • http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBELLE2
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #84 on: October 08, 2016, 06:10:49 PM »
I just noticed that Ocala PWS feed has stopped as of 9:15am yesterday, Oct 7. Hope he is okay and it's just a loss of power causing the outage.
Everything is fine down here. Lost power, cable, and internet yesterday and it just came back on this afternoon. Ended up with 1.45 for rain and just a 32 mph gust.
Now I get to pick up all the twigs in branches in the yard. :-(
Here's a snapshot of the barometer and hi wind speed for the event. Always like to see the weather graphically.

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3093
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #85 on: October 08, 2016, 06:18:48 PM »
At first readings, Florida doesn't seem to have been impacted as bad as feared,

I hate that word!!  I hate it, I hate it, I HATE IT!!! 

First thing I would do if I could would be to totally banish it from the NOAA vocabulary and fire anyone who ever used it again in an official bulletin.


It should be reserved for badly embedded wisdom teeth.
Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3559
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #86 on: October 08, 2016, 06:20:58 PM »
I just noticed that Ocala PWS feed has stopped as of 9:15am yesterday, Oct 7. Hope he is okay and it's just a loss of power causing the outage.
Everything is fine down here. Lost power, cable, and internet yesterday and it just came back on this afternoon. Ended up with 1.45 for rain and just a 32 mph gust.
Now I get to pick up all the twigs in branches in the yard. :-(
Here's a snapshot of the barometer and hi wind speed for the event. Always like to see the weather graphically.
Nice, pressure goes down, wind goes up. Love having a PWS.  UU

Offline CW2274

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3559
    • Conditions @ CW2274
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #87 on: October 08, 2016, 06:22:49 PM »
At first readings, Florida doesn't seem to have been impacted as bad as feared,

I hate that word!!  I hate it, I hate it, I HATE IT!!! 

First thing I would do if I could would be to totally banish it from the NOAA vocabulary and fire anyone who ever used it again in an official bulletin.


It should be reserved for badly embedded wisdom teeth.
I sense some baggage..... :-P

Offline Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 8567
    • Meteotemplate
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #88 on: October 08, 2016, 06:44:37 PM »
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.

I'm sure its connected with planet warming with all the predictions being inaccurately predicated how global warm up would cause multiple typhoons and hurricanes. Oh wait the tropics have been very inactive last decade or so. I read where New England now hasn't had a hurricane in over 25 years.  :lol:

For some people coming up with conspiracy theories is like a sport or way of wasting time ;)

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3093
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #89 on: October 08, 2016, 06:59:21 PM »
I don't get into all that, but one thing I've noticed.  The Seasons in general seem to be moving.  It gets warmer later in the Spring and stays warmer later into Fall.  It's almost like Winter is becoming mid-December to mid/late-March and Summer is becoming mid-June to late September/early October.

Banners, tags, widgets, etc. are why I have Signatures turned off.

Offline Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 8567
    • Meteotemplate
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #90 on: October 08, 2016, 08:03:00 PM »
Please don't get me wrong, I of course know this is serious and I feel sorry for everyone who is affected by this, but... a friend of mine has just sent me this and I really had to laugh at it and thought I will share it with you too...

Offline stevebrtx

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 582
    • Lake Chapala Mexico Weather Net
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #91 on: October 08, 2016, 08:23:45 PM »
Wherever you go the potential for disaster is near. Here in TX we have tornadoes, lightning and softball size hail, and on the coast hurricanes, in MX it was earthquakes and the cartels, so take your pick.

Offline Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 8567
    • Meteotemplate
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #92 on: October 08, 2016, 08:31:33 PM »
We have floods

Offline chief-david

  • Educational Weather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2159
  • Space Academy for Educators
    • Robbinsdale Middle School Weather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #93 on: October 08, 2016, 08:36:18 PM »
Some people do not know this is Earth. And it is dangerous.  We are lucky to have survived this long.
Vantage Pro Plus 6163
Robbinsdale, MN 55422@ 45 degrees North Latitude.

You can't phase me-I teach Middle School.
It's not you-It's WU.

Offline Jáchym

  • Meteotemplate Developer
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 8567
    • Meteotemplate
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #94 on: October 08, 2016, 08:40:43 PM »
Some people do not know this is Earth. And it is dangerous.  We are lucky to have survived this long.

Elon Musk is obviously aware of that  :grin:

Offline hankster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 479
    • NFM Weather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #95 on: October 08, 2016, 08:46:37 PM »
Slightly off topic, but are such strong hurricanes usual this late in the year? I always thought the peak is in like August and early September.

Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Peak is Sept 10th.


Offline DoctorKnow

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1248
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #96 on: October 08, 2016, 09:45:34 PM »
I just had 46 MPH. I don't know how the lights are on. Most TV stations are not transmitting.


Offline JupiterJoe

  • Senior Member
  • **
  • Posts: 64
  • JupiterWX.com
    • Live Jupiter, FL Weather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #97 on: October 09, 2016, 02:21:41 AM »
Here in Jupiter, FL, my station hit a 51mph gust. Power went out for two days. Thankfully, it came back on today.
We were lucky, it was tracking right for us, then jogged to the north and hit Grand Bahama Island instead. I'll take 51 mph over 130 mph any day.

Online Intheswamp

  • Early on one frosty morn'...
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1303
  • Sure...I know enough to be dangerous, now.
    • Beeweather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #98 on: October 09, 2016, 08:56:47 AM »
Here in Jupiter, FL, my station hit a 51mph gust. Power went out for two days. Thankfully, it came back on today.
We were lucky, it was tracking right for us, then jogged to the north and hit Grand Bahama Island instead. I'll take 51 mph over 130 mph any day.

^^^Definitely!!!!

Here's wishes for all of those affected for a fast and speedy recovery!!!  Hopefully the high waters in those areas will drain quickly!!!  Be safe!!!

Ed


Davis VP2, v3.12
Cumulus v1.9.4  Build 1079
WU - KALRUTLE2 // PWS - BEEWEATHER // CWOP - EW2927 // Weather-Cam
Today's weather beats no weather at all!

Offline Farmtalk

  • Fitzweather
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4716
    • Fitzweather
Re: Hurricane Matthew
« Reply #99 on: October 09, 2016, 10:28:50 AM »
Good to hear that many on the forum were not hit too hard. I feel bad for the folks especially on the eastern side of North Carolina, as well as the southeast tip of North Carolina.

They received so much rain....  :-(
Weather Software-> GREarth, GRAnalyst 2.xx, MRLevel3, GRLevel 3 2.xx, Bufkit, GRLevel2, WXSim, and Radarscope.
Weather Station-> Ambient Weather WS-1090 Fine Offset
Weather Station Software-> Weather Display 10.37S, Cumulus 1.94
CoCoRaHS ID->  WV-KN-27
Administrator-> www.fitzweather.org