Author Topic: The Warming Climate  (Read 19494 times)

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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #25 on: March 17, 2016, 07:16:52 PM »
You can get very accurate data from the ice cores.

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #26 on: March 17, 2016, 08:25:02 PM »
But how do you avoid the post-hoc ergo propter-hoc fallacy? In other words causality isn't a given, and to assume it is a to make a logical error of huge consequence.
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #27 on: March 17, 2016, 08:55:20 PM »
Yes, of course you can never be sure, but you can never be sure about almost anything so one must make decisions based on probability. There are arguments for and against, the ones for are much stronger and so even though they could be wrong, it is still more likely than going with the opposite, where the likeliness of being wrong and bearing the consequences is higher.

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #28 on: March 17, 2016, 09:21:54 PM »
Yes, of course you can never be sure, but you can never be sure about almost anything so one must make decisions based on probability. There are arguments for and against, the ones for are much stronger and so even though they could be wrong, it is still more likely than going with the opposite, where the likeliness of being wrong and bearing the consequences is higher.
:shock: Disagree.  We have no firm basis for linking CO2 levels causally with global warming.  The evidence is contradictory at best, and global warming might result in higher CO2 levels not vice versa.

I'm not drinking your Kool-Aid, but I agree that there's currently a long-term trend towards global warming.  I don't profess to know the future and the past is murky at best.  Epistemology is fraught with quicksand.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #29 on: May 08, 2016, 08:12:35 PM »
OK, no matter if you do or don't believe in global warming and its causes....

this I think really isn't gonna work :D :D :D  ](*,) ](*,)

http://www.digitaltrends.com/home/wind-powered-skyscrapers-could-cool-entire-planet/?utm_source=feedly&utm_medium=webfeeds

Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #30 on: May 11, 2016, 07:11:08 PM »
Interesting :D


Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #31 on: May 11, 2016, 08:04:06 PM »
Does this graph take into account the gradual immersion of many once isolated measuring locations into urban heat islands?  I wouldn't take this at face value because of the difficulty in measuring 'global' temperatures over time, especially when you consider the locations of many of our weather stations today and the absence of weather stations in many spots a century and a half ago.

What's the theory behind this metric?  Is it an average taken at a particular time of day, an average of the daily highs, an average of the daily lows, an average of the sum of the daily high and daily low, or some other calculated value?  Each method has serious flaws even if the data were valid.

Do you give equal weight to stations regardless of station density, or do you calculate an average areal temperature from the number of available stations irrespective of the number of stations thus ignoring the impact of sample size on validity?  Again, your methodology significantly affects your results.

That said, yes, the average temperatures we measure are most likely slowly rising. However, I suspect we differ regarding probable causes and possible effective interventions.  Were we to abruptly wipe mankind from the planet, would these changes slowly cease and then reverse?  I don't know for sure, but I doubt it.

Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #32 on: May 11, 2016, 08:07:35 PM »
I agree, what striked me though is the extreme difference this very last yr and I would assume that at least the last 10 yrs the methodology has been the same

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #33 on: May 11, 2016, 08:11:46 PM »
After seeing the above graph I'll post what I have from middle of USA no urban heat island. No one said its not warming everyone knows it is since the last ice age but this is over 100 years of data small town USA. I haven't really looked at this just barely made the charts with excel. These are the yearly mean Max and Minimum temperatures. What can we make from them?
« Last Edit: May 11, 2016, 08:16:06 PM by ValentineWeather »
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #34 on: May 11, 2016, 08:15:03 PM »
I agree this shows no particular trend, but one location is not relevant.

Now whatever the cause may be, this is not a coincidence:



The global temperature in March has shattered a century-long record and by the greatest margin yet seen for any month.

February was far above the long-term average globally, driven largely by climate change, and was described by scientists as a “shocker” and signalling “a kind of climate emergency”. But data released by the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) shows that March was even hotter.

Compared with the 20th-century average, March was 1.07C hotter across the globe, according to the JMA figures, while February was 1.04C higher. The JMA measurements go back to 1891 and show that every one of the past 11 months has been the hottest ever recorded for that month.

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #35 on: May 11, 2016, 08:27:20 PM »
See my response above.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #36 on: May 11, 2016, 08:40:58 PM »
Absolutely Jerry we know whats happening, how the data is manipulated and cherry picked.  I really hate these discussions because nobody can convenience others one way or another. I'm convinced its misrepresented data (and that folks is my best PC)  and don't plan on changing my mind anytime soon and don't really feel like offending others.
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #37 on: May 12, 2016, 04:49:33 AM »
Well I see your point, of course there could be data manipulation, misleading interpretation etc., but the problem is that you could apply it to absolutely anything. You could then doubt absolutely any statistic and in a sense you would be right, but with such approach you could simply ignore all statistics - even the ones that are against global warming, I could just as well argue that those are also misleading and deceiving.

Offline DanS

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #38 on: May 12, 2016, 06:17:43 AM »
I'm not debating either side here but just want to say that the last 3 days have been hotter than usual for this time of year that I can remember (43c/109f) and hope John is right with the world cyclic thing - 
"a lot of this depends where the earth is in it processor  cycle.  With an 23K year cycle I think all our  data  just an speck in time"
« Last Edit: May 12, 2016, 06:21:25 AM by DanS »

Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #39 on: May 12, 2016, 06:38:29 AM »
Yes, i am not trying to convince anyone, just expressing my opinion, though I must say that

Quote
the last 3 days have been hotter than usual

is in terms of global coverage and hundreds of years, slightly irrelevant :D

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #40 on: May 12, 2016, 08:33:02 AM »
Yes, i am not trying to convince anyone, just expressing my opinion, though I must say that

Quote
the last 3 days have been hotter than usual

is in terms of global coverage and hundreds of years, slightly irrelevant :D
A definite point of agreement, Jachym!  Now expand your view to encompass thousands of years, and very, very carefully examine your datasets and their relationship to that perspective as well as the datasets' validity.  My point is that we don't really know the cause(s) of global warming nor have we even accurately defined a metric that we can agree upon.  Agreed-upon guesses, i.e. 'scientific consensus', don't matter much in the overall scheme of things other than to foolishly place faith in tenuous hypotheses in order to politicize the issue and thereby assume a mantle of authority.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline MegaMax

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #41 on: May 12, 2016, 09:13:15 AM »
It seems to me that comparing ancient weather data which for the most part didn't exist to data from our technology today is like putting a model T and a modern racecar on a track and expecting them to do the same thing. The model T isn't going to be as reliable as the racecar. Using the speeds from the model T and from the racecar aren't going to give you accurate trends.
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #42 on: May 12, 2016, 09:31:10 AM »
You can make relatively accurate comparable estimates from ice core samples extracted

Offline tbrasel

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #43 on: May 12, 2016, 10:03:06 AM »
Is relatively accurate not kinda like being little bit pregnant ?
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Offline WeatherHost

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #44 on: May 12, 2016, 01:18:32 PM »
"The Warming Climate"  must be why the forecast for this weekend is 15 degrees or more below average.

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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #45 on: May 12, 2016, 01:21:32 PM »
Quote
for this weekend

ok, I guess I didn´t get my point across, but again, I respect everyone´s opinion, I myself have my own opinion about all this and I guess we should leave it there

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #46 on: May 12, 2016, 01:44:10 PM »
Because temperature extremes are much greater in dry air which produces warmer days and cooler nights, without an accompanying dewpoint a temperature by itself is a pretty precarious measure of warmth.  Eighty years ago the US Plains suffered terrible heat waves for several years setting many records which still stand today.  There was also a severe drought.  Climate 'experts' don't seem obligated to give a complete picture when talking about temperature extremes and take the temperature alone as the most meaningful metric.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline Harryca

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #47 on: May 14, 2016, 03:27:23 PM »
Interesting read.

Quote
Five reef islands have disappeared from the Pacific's Solomon Islands and six more have been severely damaged due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion, according to new research. Studying the relationship between sea level rise and wave exposure in the "global sea-level rise hotspot," a team of Australian researchers found rising waters are taking a significant toll on the islands. "At least 11 islands across the northern Solomon Islands have either totally disappeared over recent decades or are currently experiencing severe erosion," according to the study published in Environmental Research Letters. Focusing on two areas with the highest density of exposed reef islands, two researchers, Isabel and Roviana, examined 33 islands using aerial and satellite imagery dating from 1947 to 2014. Their findings confirm anecdotal accounts coming from scientists and locals of the islands' extreme shoreline changes over the past decade. "Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations," the study said.

Rest of article: http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=CC-20160507-53219-SLB
« Last Edit: May 14, 2016, 03:30:12 PM by Harryca »

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #48 on: May 14, 2016, 04:17:44 PM »
Interesting read.

Quote
Five reef islands have disappeared from the Pacific's Solomon Islands and six more have been severely damaged due to rising sea levels and coastal erosion, according to new research. Studying the relationship between sea level rise and wave exposure in the "global sea-level rise hotspot," a team of Australian researchers found rising waters are taking a significant toll on the islands. "At least 11 islands across the northern Solomon Islands have either totally disappeared over recent decades or are currently experiencing severe erosion," according to the study published in Environmental Research Letters. Focusing on two areas with the highest density of exposed reef islands, two researchers, Isabel and Roviana, examined 33 islands using aerial and satellite imagery dating from 1947 to 2014. Their findings confirm anecdotal accounts coming from scientists and locals of the islands' extreme shoreline changes over the past decade. "Shoreline recession at two sites has destroyed villages that have existed since at least 1935, leading to community relocations," the study said.

Rest of article: http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/database/?pageid=event_desc&edis_id=CC-20160507-53219-SLB
The world's oceans have long been rising.  This article illustrates that these findings are but a continuation of a multi-millenial progression of sea-level changes.  Because we now have the means of precisely documenting such changes doesn't mean they are unique in our planet's history.  Places at risk should take notice and be forewarned, not look for someone to blame.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
gwwilk@inebraska.com

Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #49 on: May 14, 2016, 04:29:48 PM »
Now, there is one thing that I cannot resist to ask you.

There is a fundamental flaw in your argument.

You are basically saying all the time, we have insufficient evidence that global warming is a result of human intervention, arguing that temperatures could be rising for other reasons, etc etc.

But... I could actually say the exact opposite, but using the same logic:

What evidence do you have for the fact this is NOT happening as a result of human actions? What evidence do you have that the oceans are rising for other reasons? The problem is obvious - yes I agree that we will very likely never have a definitive answer as to whether or not humans are causing this, but so are you never going to have a definitive evidence that this is not due to humans.

In conclusion - we could both be right and so it is just a matter of what everyone thinks is more likely. I myself have my own opinion, I am not going to say yours is wrong, you just believe the opposite, but likewise you cannot prove me wrong... thats the point...

 

anything