Author Topic: The Warming Climate  (Read 9385 times)

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Offline bmchan

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The Warming Climate
« on: December 30, 2015, 06:58:36 AM »
During the previous 2 years there have been few global warming headlines due to the major media centers in the Northeast experiencing below normal temperatures. It surprised me to notice that during the previous winter the eastern US was the only part of the World which had below normal temperatures and that everyone else was above normal. Well this Fall we sorta have had a day of reckoning with the eastern US being well above normal and many record highs reported. While I agree that the overall trend in recent decades has been a warmer one I think that the short time relative to the age of the Earth in which accurate measurements of Global temperatures have been recorded will always put some doubt into the theory. However the increasing floods and droughts we seem to be experiencing do concern me and I am glad that climate summits are trying to deal with the issue. I must say however that a major volcanic eruption could turn things the other way. Also there are processes on the Earth which are taking the CO2 out of the air which have always been around. We have however have destroyed many forests and have influenced the sea CO2 sinks in an unknown way. However with every plant or tree we put into the ground we help even things out. The temperatures are finally cooling down in the US and the west has not been without its snow. But if we have temperatures at the scale we had this Fall during the upcoming Summer in the East we will really be hurting. It is something to continue to monitor and study.

Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #1 on: December 30, 2015, 07:21:56 AM »
Europe has experienced extremely above-average temperatures lately, this Christmas, we had around 10°C again, this has been like this for the past at least 5 years, even though the long-term average since 1961 for Christmas is around 0°C. Also, so far we had no snow this winter whatsoever. I remember only 15 yrs ago when I was little, we had snow regularly, last 3 winters, almost nothing.

But you might be interested in this :D
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3156594/Is-mini-ICE-AGE-way-Scientists-warn-sun-sleep-2020-cause-temperatures-plummet.html

Offline bmchan

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #2 on: December 30, 2015, 07:39:17 AM »
That is an interesting article indeed. It is important to note that the satellite technology that measured the Earth's temperatures is only decades old and it's difficult to put every piece into the puzzle of climate change. If that change does indeed occur climate scientists will be headed back to the drawing board. I hope we are prepared for both warming and cooling scenarios.

Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #3 on: December 30, 2015, 09:20:33 AM »
The question is what happens then... if you think about it, this would basically override the effects of overall global warming, which would however still progress, so as soon as the solar cycles are back to normal, it would not get back to the original level, but probably even higher, making it even more difficult because of the sudden change... we will see. There is definitely so many factors coming into play that I doubt we will ever be able to do any accurate long-term predictions.

And also... never underestimate the butterfly effect...

Offline Scalphunter

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #4 on: December 30, 2015, 11:55:58 AM »
a lot of this depends where the earth is in it processor  cycle.  With an 23K year cycle I think all our  data  just an speck in time. There  couple  volcano's that  spew 7k tons of  co2 into the atmosphere and yet   a few are saying man a problem.   Who know also when we go thru an other dust cloud in out travels around the  Galanxy  all this contributes to what happens here.


John

Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #5 on: March 16, 2016, 09:49:21 AM »
Global warming also has some positive consequences ;)


Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #6 on: March 16, 2016, 10:18:02 AM »
The Al Gore's and others making a living pushing the bad science now want the Courts to make it illegal to even question climate change.
So we may be arrested soon for even disputing the garbage science. And they wonder why so many are angry with the direction we are headed. Just look at the USA election process this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg, we haven't seen anything yet.   

What’s  this world coming to?  :evil: :evil:

Offline Bushman

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #7 on: March 16, 2016, 10:18:35 AM »
Well if Leonardo DiCaprio says it is happening, then it MUST be true!   ](*,)

Offline ocala

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #8 on: March 16, 2016, 08:56:46 PM »
Great pic Jachym. :grin:

Offline Bunty

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2016, 03:42:52 AM »
The Al Gore's and others making a living pushing the bad science now want the Courts to make it illegal to even question climate change.
So we may be arrested soon for even disputing the garbage science. And they wonder why so many are angry with the direction we are headed. Just look at the USA election process this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg, we haven't seen anything yet.   

What’s  this world coming to?  :evil: :evil:

How much warmer must it get before it's no longer bad science?  7 straight days of 100 degrees or more in Fairbanks, Alaska?

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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2016, 06:04:19 AM »
To be quite honest I find it rather strange that so many people on this forum, weather enthusiasts and people who obviously know about this more than general public, deny global warming and its consequences, despite the fact we are no longer talking about probablities like "very likely" but rather "certain" (I am basing this on the last IPCC report which I was translating to Czech so I read it in quite some detail).

Having studied biology and genetics in particular, I would compare this to denying evolution, which is also something lot of people still do.

I am a very rational person and studied natural sciences and to me, the answers to the above questions are quite obvious based on not just the information I learned, but also what I see and millions of evidences.

Likewise though, I am very tolerant in terms of respecting other people´s believes so I have no problem with other people having a different opinion, as long as they do not try to prove me wrong :D

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2016, 08:07:08 AM »
The Al Gore's and others making a living pushing the bad science now want the Courts to make it illegal to even question climate change.
So we may be arrested soon for even disputing the garbage science. And they wonder why so many are angry with the direction we are headed. Just look at the USA election process this year. This is just the tip of the iceberg, we haven't seen anything yet.   

What’s  this world coming to?  :evil: :evil:

How much warmer must it get before it's no longer bad science?  7 straight days of 100 degrees or more in Fairbanks, Alaska?

I'm not disputing we aren't warming but its at the natural rate since the last ice age. Man has zero to do with the outcome based on the minuscule amount of CO2 we put into the atmosphere.
These false alarmist are basing data on cooked books and computer models. Having a super strong El Nino being the generator behind the warmth this year has nothing to do with man caused warming. I guess we forgot about the 3-4 prior record cold winters.

I look at the big picture not the few years we have been here and don't reinforce the rhetoric based on remembering my childhood weather events.  People that do that are followers not innovators.

Watts Up With That, the worlds most visited climate change and global warming site has some graphs for the paleoclimate and some other good information including this years heat generator El Nino.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/paleoclimate/


Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2016, 08:40:30 AM »
Minuscule?

just example:

Greenhouse gas emissions from volcanoes comprise less than one percent of those generated by today’s human endeavors.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2016, 09:46:47 AM »
I say minuscule when total atmosphere CO2 is one-half of one-tenth of one percent of the atmosphere, and mankind contributes to about 10 percent of the total amount of CO2.


Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2016, 09:55:03 AM »
I say minuscule when total atmosphere CO2 is one-half of one-tenth of one percent of the atmosphere, and mankind contributes to about 10 percent of the total amount of CO2.

Yes, but the actual amount does not correspond with the effects it has... there are also other GHGs which are in much smaller amounts and have thousands fold greater effect (freons etc)

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2016, 10:21:04 AM »
I say minuscule when total atmosphere CO2 is one-half of one-tenth of one percent of the atmosphere, and mankind contributes to about 10 percent of the total amount of CO2.

Yes, but the actual amount does not correspond with the effects it has... there are also other GHGs which are in much smaller amounts and have thousands fold greater effect (freons etc)

Sorry Jachym I just don't drink the cool aid. (At ALL) No disrespect to you or others we just have different ideas whats going on. Its political and much deeper than many realize.
I've got into heated conversations with my son who unfortunately drank the cool aid while at Texas A&M. When he starts losing it, I call it a win. :lol:

Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2016, 10:28:36 AM »
I definitely do not want to argue with you, but you are not going to persuade me either, I have a very clear opinion about it... in the end it is good people have diiferent opinions... world would be quite boring otherwise don´t you think? ;)

Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2016, 10:31:24 AM »
Just one last thing... do not think I am one of those who simply repeat what they see on TV. I work as a climatologist and spend most of my time at work analyzing various types of data and so I think I have good and balanced sources and also some things from first hand.

Offline ValentineWeather

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2016, 10:43:05 AM »
No, I analyze data too but not for a living. I'm more into climatology than just current weather happenings. Its why I'm anal about accuracy. 

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2016, 11:13:55 AM »
You know the 'experts' have their wires crossed when for example the NOAA-NWS 'Climate Prediction Center' issues a 6 to 10 day and an 8 to 14 day weather forecast!  It should be called the Long-Term Forecast Center in order to more clearly reflect the nature of their products.  They aren't predicting climate, any more than 'climatologists' can read the tea leaves inside our day-to-day, or even year-by-year weather.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2016, 11:19:45 AM by gwwilk »
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2016, 01:29:14 PM »
Quote
Having a super strong El Nino being the generator behind the warmth this year has nothing to do with man caused warming. I guess we forgot about the 3-4 prior record cold winters.

Well... you are the one talking about "last 3-4 prior cold winters" - which in climatological perspective is totally irrelevant. Also, this was mostly in the NE USA, in other parts of the country this was not the case.

i could also just pinpoint some particular winters here in Europe which are not what one would expect.

Offline Bunty

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2016, 03:32:45 PM »
I figure most of the global warming denying is politically motivated.  People don't want to pay higher taxes and more restrictive regulations as suggested ways to combat it.  Also China not wanting to do much doesn't help matters.

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Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2016, 05:28:21 PM »
Quote
Having a super strong El Nino being the generator behind the warmth this year has nothing to do with man caused warming. I guess we forgot about the 3-4 prior record cold winters.

Well... you are the one talking about "last 3-4 prior cold winters" - which in climatological perspective is totally irrelevant. Also, this was mostly in the NE USA, in other parts of the country this was not the case.

i could also just pinpoint some particular winters here in Europe which are not what one would expect.
You've just illustrated my point, Jachym.  Talking about the last few years' weather as being indicative of a climate shift is like measuring the length of a person's nose and declaring you know the person's height as well as their hair and eye color.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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Offline Jáchym

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2016, 06:27:14 PM »
Yes, so we need to look at long term trends, trends of at least thousands of years and compare that to 20th and this century ;)

Offline gwwilk

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Re: The Warming Climate
« Reply #24 on: March 17, 2016, 07:13:42 PM »
Yes, so we need to look at long term trends, trends of at least thousands of years and compare that to 20th and this century ;)
There's the rub.  What's the comparison point?  Since a changing climate is the norm and not the exception we're pinning the tail on a moving donkey while blindfolded.  The results of that exercise are most likely to be ugly and largely wasted effort.  I'm all for observing the weather, but I can't abide drawing unwarranted conclusions from the data.
Regards, Jerry Wilkins
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