Predicting Collision Asteroid Apophis On Earth

[liveweatherman]

This might be the most feared situation that the earth can encounter to be hit by an Asteroid named Apophis in the year 2029..Discover in year 2004 this said asteroid might impact was calculated as 1 in 45,000..If this happened it NASA initially estimated the energy that Apophis would have released if it struck Earth as the equivalent of 1480 megatons of TNT...giving risk and fear for the countries that will be stuck by this dangerous asteroid..

[WeatherHost]

Make it 2009 and I'll go paint a target in my back yard.   

[jwyman]

Just paint it on Bin Laden's head 

[tinplate]

There is an interesting story of a 13 year old boy finding an error in NASA's calculation, and determining that the odds are actually 1 in 450. Alas, it is but a story.
http://www.theregister.co.uk/2008/04/16/esa_german_schoolboy_apophis_denial/

[liveweatherman]

NASA will probably plans out a Armageddon spacecraft to blast the asteroid.. They should be able to know first the composition of the said asteroid in order to decide what will be their appropriate move against the asteroid..Ares V cargo launch vehicle will probably be taking off in  2020 or 2021...

Here is the link to the whole story: NASA plans 'Armageddon' spacecraft to blast asteroid

Overview: Ares V Cargo Launch Vehicle

[ocala]

I guess in 2028 I need to charge the hell out my credit card.

[liveweatherman]

I guess in 2028 I need to charge the hell out my credit card.

    could be...after all they will not run after you..lol

[WeatherHost]

Right here baby, right here, pitch it right down the middle!!

I figure a direct strike on St. Louis, Nashville or Cincinnatti should do the trick very nicely.


 

[killwilly]

I shall be too old to care in 2029.   

Alan.

[W Thomas]

As fragile as the United States economic situation is right now..if it remains the same anywhere it hits here would about wipe us out
Definitely something to think about!

Wayne
www.smythweather.net
CW8217

[racenet]

It doesn't matter what the economic situation is. If something of this size hits earth, life as we know it (if there still is life) on a global scale will be drastically different.



Bob
 

[WeatherHost]

The economy will be the least of your worries.  The unlucky ones who survive will be thrown back into the dark ages.  What's left of civilization will be unrecognizeable.  No power.  No communications.  No clean water.  Air will be contaminated.  Temperatures will plunge for decades.

Survivors will wish they hadn't.

[NiceBill]

No weather station???????????

[tomwxman]

NASA will probably plans out a Armageddon spacecraft to blast the asteroid..

But... NASA will be long gone well before 2029; probably shortly after the Shuttle is retired.

Anyone who is concerned (I'm not) will do better to hope that the Chinese will do something about it.

[ocala]

I wouldn't say that Tom. They have a lot of money invested in the Constellation program.
My step mother is heavily involved in that program at Nasa.
http://www.nasa.gov/mission_pages/constellation/orion/index.html

[W Thomas]

The economy will be the least of your worries.  The unlucky ones who survive will be thrown back into the dark ages.  What's left of civilization will be unrecognizeable.  No power.  No communications.  No clean water.  Air will be contaminated.  Temperatures will plunge for decades.

Survivors will wish they hadn't.

That is definitely true..
I was thinking more in terms of ability and funding for research to
"possibly' find an alternative to the situation.
It's a long shot at best on that approach I know
Those that do survive will basically be back in the caveman era of things given all
the damage to the atmosphere it will do.

Just like you said..survival would not be a positive outcome!

Wayne
www.smythweather.net
CW8217

[WeatherHost]

I think NASA needs to stay, but I think they need to drop all Mars and other planetary and deep space programs.  They should focus on solar and lunar programs, and any deep space work should be towards near Earth orbit anomolies or collision path targets.

In short drop anything that doesn't or couldn't have a direct effect on Earth.

The other big doomsday threat that is considered more likely than an asteroid impact is a massive solar flare that could destroy all communications and electrical system with a gigantic electomagnetic pulse.  It's also anticipated that the atmosphere would be heavily damaged and unable to deflect radiation or manage temperatures.

[W Thomas]

The other big doomsday threat that is considered more likely than an asteroid impact is a massive solar flare that could destroy all communications and electrical system with a gigantic electomagnetic pulse.  It's also anticipated that the atmosphere would be heavily damaged and unable to deflect radiation or manage temperatures.

I was thinking the other day about this sort of thing and other cold war era practices. I believe that maybe we should have kept a few of those hardened bunker sites that ATT had back in those days. Things are leaning toward their
need lately!
Might not be as practical as back in the cold war era but then again it may be the easiest and possibly the only way to keep communications somewhat operational if there were to be some sort of EMP event!
Still would depend on what was actually online at the time of the pulse..which likely would not survive... and of course who would be alive to utilize those communications

Wayne
www.smythweather.net
CW8217

[SLOweather]

I believe that maybe we should have kept a few of those hardened bunker sites that ATT had back in those days.

There's still one less than a mile from my house. It's the landing for a lot of Transpacific cables. In the 70s, it was coax, now its fiber.

I got a tour of it back then. All underground, entire building shock-mounted on springs, 30 days of supplies and fuel/ totally self sufficient... Half of the building was military Autovon switching, which we couldn't view. We descended down a 3 or 4 story shaft and through automated blast doors that were controlled by radiation sensors.

[WeatherHost]

In one of those TLC/Discovery doomsday shows, they predicted the damage to the grid would be so massive it would threaten civilization even without atmospheric damage from the flare itself.

The theory is that it would take years to rebuild the grid mostly due to the lack of capacity to build all the generators and transformers that would be required.  Apparently there are only a handful of plants worldwide that build those components and it's not a process that can easliy be accelerated.

Without power, there would be no transportation, so no food distribution or processing capabilities. Millions would starve.

It's believed that a large enough flare and it's EMP could wipe out computer chips even in systems that weren't running.  That could mean the chips in most motor vehicle computers.  When did they start putting computers in vehicles?  Late 70's?  Early 80's? How many of us have pre-1970 vehicles at hand?

They went on to claim that after about 10 days or so without power to run the cooling systems, nuclear plants would begin to overheat and go into meltdown.  Once that process began, it would be irreversible and uncontrollable and the atmosphere would soon be unliveable.

Again, although most humans would survive the initial event and many could sustain themselves for weeks, months or longer, there would be little else left of civilization after a year or so.

Now, with proper planning and preparation, one would think that back up systems and spare parts could be stocked in locations that would be sheltered from the initial pulse.  Those components could be pulled out several days afterwards and used to restore some critical elements.

But where would you store hundreds of satellites and their launch vehicles to restore global communications?


 

[tomwxman]

In one of those TLC/Discovery doomsday shows, they predicted the damage to the grid would be so massive it would threaten civilization even without atmospheric damage from the flare itself.

Lovely story! 

And very plausible. I wonder though if there was any discussion of past events, i.e. we think it was a meteor that did-away with the dinosaurs--is there any evidence to suggest a solar flare having occurred in the past?

Having witnessed first hand a "simple" lightning strike destroying virtually all local electronics, including even some automobile (truck) electrics, the damage to chips from the EMP of a powerful flare would clearly be devastating indeed.

[WeatherHost]

I wonder though if there was any discussion of past events, i.e. we think it was a meteor that did-away with the dinosaurs--is there any evidence to suggest a solar flare having occurred in the past?

Indeed.  An EMP took out much of the grid in the upper east a few years ago, can't say for sure when though.  In my mind I keep getting the event confused with the massive ice storm that crippled the grip in Quebec.  You may be able to find something on it with a web search.

Solar storms have also taken out several satellites.

One of NASA's missions is to place a satellite between the Earth and the Sun as a sort of early warning system where it will hopefully give us enough time to shut down enough system to avoid catastrophic damage.

 

[W Thomas]

That's right! Seems like I remember a few years back when a satellite that was handling a lot of paging fell by the way from a solar flare IIRC.
Imagine that happening with many if not all the communications birds!

Wayne
www.smythweather.net
CW8217

[Weather Display]

I think the sun is going through a solar minimum at the moment, i.e not many solar flares/sunspots
(good thing we have global warming to moderate the potential cooling that could occur next few years I guess?)

[tomwxman]

One of NASA's missions is to place a satellite between the Earth and the Sun as a sort of early warning system where it will hopefully give us enough time to shut down enough system to avoid catastrophic damage.

I guess the keyword here is "catastrophic", since damage can & will occur whether the electronics are powered-on or not!

@GBW -- I thought it was the opposite, that we were heading *into* a period of increased sunspot activity? Maybe now's the time to sell all our electronics on eBay, given we'll need the cash in our mattresses anyway to buy food & water...!