Author Topic: 30 May 2012 - SPC Moderate risk  (Read 1228 times)

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Offline BigOkie

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30 May 2012 - SPC Moderate risk
« on: May 30, 2012, 06:25:39 AM »
With the storms producing the ridiculous sized hail they did last night in central Oklahoma, along in that area with three tornado touchdowns, it appears us in Oklahoma are in for it again tonight.



WOUS40 KWNS 300920
PWOSPC
KSZ000-OKZ000-TXZ000-301800-

PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0419 AM CDT WED MAY 30 2012

...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OK IS FORECASTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...A FEW TORNADOES...AND
POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PLAINS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE AREAS MOST LIKELY TO EXPERIENCE THIS ACTIVITY INCLUDE

       SOUTHERN KANSAS
       WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
       NORTHERN TEXAS

ELSEWHERE...SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU AND NORTHERN TEXAS...

AN UPPER-AIR DISTURBANCE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WILL PROGRESS
SOUTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE A SECOND WEAKER SYSTEM
EMERGES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  THESE
FEATURES WILL INTERACT WITH A LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...THE MERGING OF A COLD FRONT AND STATIONARY FRONT OVER
KANSAS...AND POSSIBLY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER OKLAHOMA AND
TEXAS...TO PRODUCE A NUMBER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

THE COMBINATION OF A MODERATE TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS AND
STRENGTHENING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL RESULT IN AN ENVIRONMENT
FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW
TORNADOES.  WITH TIME...INDIVIDUAL STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MERGE INTO
A LARGE COMPLEX WITH A POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND THREAT
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS LATE THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT.

STATE AND LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE MONITORING THIS POTENTIALLY
VERY DANGEROUS SITUATION. THOSE IN THE THREATENED AREA ARE URGED TO
REVIEW SEVERE WEATHER SAFETY RULES AND TO LISTEN TO
RADIO...TELEVISION...AND NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR POSSIBLE
WATCHES...WARNINGS...AND STATEMENTS LATER TODAY.

..MEAD.. 05/30/2012


Current setup: Davis Vantage Pro 2 Plus Wireless
Weather radios:
Reecom R-1650
Sangean CL-100
Uniden Home Patrol I

Offline cospringswx

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Re: 30 May 2012 - SPC Moderate risk
« Reply #1 on: May 30, 2012, 03:02:51 PM »
What will be issued shortly for me

 
   
   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0980
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT WED MAY 30 2012
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...WCNTRL KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE
   
   VALID 301805Z - 301930Z
   
   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT
   
   SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS WCNTRL KS. AS STORMS INITIATE AND INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE...LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE. TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR WW ISSUANCE ACROSS THE REGION.
   
   DISCUSSION...CELLS ARE STARTING TO INITIATE IN WCNTRL KS LOCATED
   ALONG A MOISTURE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY EXTENDING EAST TO WEST ALONG THE I-70 CORRIDOR.
   THE CELL IN NESS COUNTY IS LIKELY ELEVATED WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   STILL SHOWING A CAP IN PLACE JUST ABOVE 850 MB. IN SPITE OF BEING
   ELEVATED...STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 60 TO 70 KT ALONG WITH
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NEAR 8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
   STORMS WITH HAIL. THE THREAT FOR HAIL SHOULD CONTINUE EWD INTO THE
   RUSSELL KS AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
   
   FURTHER TO THE WEST...MESOANALYSIS SUGGESTS THE CAPPING INVERSION IS
   WEAKENING MAINLY FROM GARDEN CITY KS NWD TO AROUND OAKLEY KS. THE
   WEAKENING CAP IS CO-LOCATED WITH AN AREA OF STRONG DESTABILIZATION
   WHERE MLCAPE VALUES ARE ESTIMATED FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG. AS A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED IN WRN NEB AND ERN CO MOVES INTO
   WRN KS THIS AFTERNOON...SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME
   INCREASINGLY LIKELY. SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT STORMS
   WILL INITIATE IN WRN KS BETWEEN 20Z TO 21Z. AS THIS OCCURS...THE
   STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 45 TO 50 KT SHOULD
   BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MCD AREA ESPECIALLY AS STORMS INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..BROYLES/WEISS.. 05/30/2012
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...DDC...GLD...
   
   LAT...LON   39219983 39180141 38720180 37590142 37309877 37619820
               38159780 38819778 39059853 39219983
   

 




Ryan 

Colorado Springs, CO
www.cospringsweather.com
Davis Vantage Vue
Weather Display Software
Hikvision HD IP Camera

Offline Farmtalk

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Re: 30 May 2012 - SPC Moderate risk
« Reply #2 on: May 30, 2012, 04:56:12 PM »
Severe thunderstorm warning for you bud (Hays, KS):



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A



* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  ELLIS COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

  NORTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...



* UNTIL 445 PM CDT



* AT 345 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PING PONG BALL SIZE

  HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS

  LOCATED NEAR LIEBENTHAL...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.



* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

  LIEBENTHAL...

  MUNJOR...

  LORETTA...

  PFEIFER...

  CATHARINE...

  VICTORIA...

  EMMERAM...

  WALKER...

  MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF ELLIS AND NORTHEASTERN RUSH COUNTIES.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. IF CAUGHT OUTSIDE

SEEK A STURDY SHELTER AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS

PASSED.
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Weather Station-> Ambient Weather WS-1090 Fine Offset
Weather Station Software-> Weather Display 10.37S, Cumulus 1.94
CoCoRaHS ID->  WV-KN-27
Administrator-> www.fitzweather.org

Offline Bunty

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Re: 30 May 2012 - SPC Moderate risk
« Reply #3 on: May 31, 2012, 01:31:25 AM »
That storm system didn't drop very deep into Oklahoma before weakening and taking a turn toward the east.  The gust front was the major feature associated with it.  Most of the wind stayed under 50 or 60 mph.  The storm front even quit following the gust front. The east side of the system maintained some strength, though as it approached north of Tulsa.  
« Last Edit: May 31, 2012, 02:01:51 AM by Bunty »

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