Invest 92 near Azores

[Spider-Vice]

  Things seem to be pretty bad down there, very strong rains and thunderstorms. The NHC has rated the storm an Invest already  Our weather institute had maximum warnings for rain and thunderstorms but it's been downgraded now.
WU: http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at201292_model.html



Some destruction pictures:




More information and following on a Portuguese weather forum.
Following

It's in Portuguese though...

[SlowModem]

For those that don't know (like me, I had to look it up!    ):

From National Hurricane Center:

Invest:
A weather system for which a tropical cyclone forecast center (NHC, CPHC, or JTWC) is interested in collecting specialized data sets (e.g., microwave imagery) and/or running model guidance. Once a system has been designated as an invest, data collection and processing is initiated on a number of government and academic web sites, including the Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) and the University of Wisconsin Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies (UW-CIMSS). The designation of a system as an invest does not correspond to any particular likelihood of development of the system into a tropical cyclone; operational products such as the Tropical Weather Outlook or the JTWC/TCFA should be consulted for this purpose.

[Harryca]

Strange to see tropical development this early.  NHC gives it a 40% chance.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 140 PM EDT SAT MAY 12 2012
 
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
 
1. A NON-TROPICAL LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC ABOUT 400 MILES
 SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN AZORES ISLANDS HAS DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM
 ACTIVITY NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THERE IS SOME
 POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES LITTLE
 DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND THE LOW HAS A MEDIUM
 CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE
 DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER
 OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF
 NECESSARY.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
$$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
 
There is also a disturbance that has a 40% chance of development in the Eastern Pacific.

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
 735 AM PDT SAT MAY 12 2012
 
FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..
 
1. AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER HAS DEVELOPED ABOUT 550 MILES
 SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF ACAPULCO MEXICO. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR
 CONDUCIVE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
 A TROPICAL DEPRESSION DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES SLOWLY
 NORTHWESTWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF
 BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ADDITIONAL
 SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM
 LATER TODAY OR SUNDAY...IF NECESSARY.
 
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
 NEXT 48 HOURS.
 
$$
 FORECASTER BEVEN
 NNNN
 
http://ucweather.org/hurricaneauto.php

[mackbig]

Invest(igate)

There is one in the Eastern Pacific too, similar prob on TS formation.

Andrew

[Farmtalk]

Does anyone know what the Hurricane Center's prediction on the hurricane season was?? And I knew what an invest was, but how do they get the "92"? Is it based on lat/long?

[mackbig]

NOAA issues some time in May before official start of sesaon on June 1st. No set date.

The Invest numbers dont mean anything.  They cycle between 90 and 99 over and over again throughout the season. So they are only used to differentiate the various potential waves as they become TD/TS's or fade away.

Andrew

Does anyone know what the Hurricane Center's prediction on the hurricane season was?? And I knew what an invest was, but how do they get the "92"? Is it based on lat/long?

[Farmtalk]

NOAA issues some time in May before official start of sesaon on June 1st. No set date.

The Invest numbers dont mean anything.  They cycle between 90 and 99 over and over again throughout the season. So they are only used to differentiate the various potential waves as they become TD/TS's or fade away.

Andrew

Does anyone know what the Hurricane Center's prediction on the hurricane season was?? And I knew what an invest was, but how do they get the "92"? Is it based on lat/long?

Thanks! I figured it would have stood for something but that makes sense!

[Spider-Vice]

Extreme rain is forecast by GFS to the eastern island tonight again, I do hope it doesn't happen  Our weather service issued once again maximum advisories for strong rain.




Source: IM Portugal

[DaculaWeather]

Forecast is for slow degradation, too early in the season for anything to happen right now.