Author Topic: Historic Mega-drought  (Read 2743 times)

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Offline Downlinerz2

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Historic Mega-drought
« on: November 08, 2011, 03:20:18 PM »
   Article about research revealing a mega-drought in the past and that extreme weather is part of a natural cycle.

http://tucsoncitizen.com/wryheat/2011/11/05/university-of-arizona-scientists-find-evidence-of-roman-period-megadrought/

Offline Weather Display

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #1 on: November 08, 2011, 03:38:25 PM »
Interesting
looks like the droughts are associated with prolonged La Nina patterns (which affects the climate world wide..as does El nino)
(not surprising when you think of the pacific ocean is like nearly half the globe)

Offline WeatherHost

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #2 on: November 08, 2011, 04:15:22 PM »
   Article about research revealing a mega-drought in the past and that extreme weather is part of a natural cycle.

Yeah, but you can't tell the Warmers that.


Offline Weather Display

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #3 on: November 08, 2011, 06:41:33 PM »
they are not saying there is no natural climate cycles
they are just saying there is man made warming on top of natural climate cycles

Offline IMADreamer

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #4 on: November 09, 2011, 02:36:28 PM »
I'm sorry, wasn't the global warming issue settled about 20 years ago amongst intelligent scientific minded adults?  The only people who don't think it's happening are the ones that watch Fox News 24/7 and don't understand that man made global warming is very inconvenient to Fox News giant corporate sponsors.  When money is involved facts seem to go out the window.  I don't hear any of my climatology or meteorology buddies even questioning man made global warming at this point.   


As for natural cycles, they are obviously a part of the weather and climate.  Anyone heard of the ice age?  How about the dust bowl?  I'm just as sure as I am about global warming, the man made kind, as I am natural cycles occur.  There are alot of factors that play into things like prolonged "mega droughts."  The easy finger pointing is at La Nina, El Nino, NPO, AO, etc.  Those obviously play a huge roll, and interestingly enough we are in year two of what will probably be a three year La Nina episode.   

There is also the persistence.  In college my synoptic met professor hammered home that what has been happening, is probably what will be happening.  So when you have a prolonged drought like we have had in the southern plains and in parts of the midwest that trend is very hard to break because when systems move through much of the energy and moisture goes to just saturating the column.  As the drought continues it takes more and more energy and moisture to do that.  The result is that even when you get big systems with the right conditions you sometimes don't get drought relief.  It's fascinating and something I want to learn alot more about over my life because it not only encompass climatology, synoptic met, but also micro meteorology which I find fascinating.

I think the U of A paper is interesting but kind of nothing new.
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Online Dr Obbins

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #5 on: November 09, 2011, 09:48:25 PM »
There are ~7,000,000,000 people on this planet who need to eat, work, dispose of waste, get to and from places, and have fun. This population and associated economies needs the infrastructure and natural resources to support this life. Of course ~7,000,000,000 people will effect the environment of the planet. Besides upgrading light bulbs and driving a more fuel efficient car, I really haven't heard of any real solutions to this issue yet. I don't think ~7,000,000,000 people could exist with out today's energy consuming technology and it's side effects.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_expectancy#Life_expectancy_variation_over_time

Online W3DRM

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #6 on: November 09, 2011, 10:28:14 PM »
Without getting into a debate on the global warming subject, I suggest that those of you not familiar with the subject, as discussed previously on this forum, and those who are new to this forum (within the last year or so) should do some searching on the topic. You will find a large number of posts (and emotion).

You will find posts that support the claims of global warming being caused by humans. You will also find posts that don't support those claims. The real problem, as I see it, is that we, as a group, can't seem to discuss the subject in any kind of civil manner. Both sides are adamant that they are right.

So, just be forewarned that if you post comments regarding the character of individuals being moronic or something similar (because they don't agree with your own position on the subject), rather than having an intelligent and civil discussion, you will most likely become the target of others who don't agree with your position. One forum member, that I am aware of, was banned from the forum because they refused to be civil with other members who disagreed with him. Please, we don't need another round those kinds of posts.

Remember, true scientific analysis of issues requires questioning and rigorous scrutiny by everyone for a long period of time and perhaps not even in our own lifetime. Without this questioning and challenging from all sides of a hypothesis, we cannot get to the true answers to the questions being asked. At various times during this analysis, there may very well be indicators that suggest a particular answer is correct but, later on, and with further questioning and new evidence, the answer may wind up being something totally different. Until the time comes that all parties are in agreement, there will be no "true" answer to the question being researched.

To add confusion to everything we have seen governments and political interests become part of the analysis, we all lose because the answers become skewed in favor of one interfering factor or another. No one wins unless the scientific community is allowed to perform their analysis without outside influence of any kind. That, in my estimation, is what true science is.

Oh, one more comment - I don't think anyone refutes the claim that there is Global Warming. The question we are looking for an answer to is "What is causing it?"
« Last Edit: November 09, 2011, 10:32:53 PM by W3DRM »
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Offline Downlinerz2

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #7 on: November 09, 2011, 11:31:58 PM »
   Thanks W3DRM! =D> =D>  I am up to here with the overwhelming trend in this country to insult instead of discuss.  I did not start this thread to start a debate on global warming.  I am not too far from deciding to leave the forum.  This just keeps happening and happening again, and again. :-(

Online Dr Obbins

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #8 on: November 10, 2011, 06:18:13 AM »
   Thanks W3DRM! =D> =D>  I am up to here with the overwhelming trend in this country to insult instead of discuss.  I did not start this thread to start a debate on global warming.  I am not too far from deciding to leave the forum.  This just keeps happening and happening again, and again. :-(
Sorry, I thought that global warming (climate change caused by humans) was one of the concluding points to the article. Yes droughts have happened in the past, but fear for the future. What would be the point in an article just stating that there were droughts throughout history?
Quote
Although natural climate variation has led to extended dry periods in the southwestern U.S. in the past, there is reason to believe that human-driven climate change will increase the frequency of extreme droughts in the future, said Routson. In other words, we should expect similar multi-decade droughts in a future predicted to be even warmer than the past.

Offline paleoguy

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #9 on: November 10, 2011, 10:07:16 AM »
Amen W3DRM.  Not only does civility encourage participation, especially by newer members, but the lack of it detracts from the forum's credibility.
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Offline SoMDWx

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #10 on: November 10, 2011, 10:24:49 AM »
It is too late for the truth.....At least from the Global warming / climate change perspective.... I get so tired of hearing it....

For those who think man can fix this problem is a true idealistic...It will never happen....

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Offline arrowspace90

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #11 on: November 10, 2011, 12:05:47 PM »
Most scientists agree that for the past couple of decades, the global temperature has gone up.
The question is, is this happening because of a natural cycle or does human activity contribute to it?
Right now, La Nina is having it's way with US weather.  We have been warm and bone dry in Texas while the NE and NW get soaked.  Classic La Nina.
Does GW upset the patterns of La Nina/El Nino?  Well, the "jury is out" on that one.
You can't be certain about the fingerprint of human activity when you don't know what is actually "normal" or "abnormal" variation. 

But here is one that we have to accept.  According to NASA, the amount of carbon being pumped into the atmoshere is increasing rapidly.  Just this past year, with all the talk about "green" technology, humans broke the record on carbon emissions.  That's not open to speculation, that is a fact.
So the question becomes, is it reasonable to conclude that vast amounts of carbon can be added to the atmosphere, year after year, with no larger effect on global climate?

Offline kiabird

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #12 on: November 22, 2011, 01:11:14 PM »
Quote
Oh, one more comment - I don't think anyone refutes the claim that there is Global Warming. The question we are looking for an answer to is "What is causing it?"

and then there's my Q:  why should it be hotter in summer?

I want warm winters instead.  #-o

Offline arrowspace90

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #13 on: November 22, 2011, 01:20:28 PM »
   Article about research revealing a mega-drought in the past and that extreme weather is part of a natural cycle.

Yeah, but you can't tell the Warmers that.




No, you can't, because the "anti-warmers" cannot dispute the fact that carbon is being pumped into the atomosphere by humans in record amounts never before seen.
Carbon is a greenhouse gas that holds heat.  What exactly do you imagine is the consequence of this over time? NASA will tell you that global warming is real and that humans are causing it.  But perhaps some believe that the moon landings were done in a hollywood studio.

Offline Bunty

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #14 on: November 23, 2011, 02:22:05 PM »
I think it would keep things more civil if those who believe in global warming did not suggest raising taxes and applying oppressive regulations as ways to deal with it.

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Online W3DRM

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #15 on: November 23, 2011, 05:26:46 PM »
   Article about research revealing a mega-drought in the past and that extreme weather is part of a natural cycle.

Yeah, but you can't tell the Warmers that.

No, you can't, because the "anti-warmers" cannot dispute the fact that carbon is being pumped into the atomosphere by humans in record amounts never before seen.
Carbon is a greenhouse gas that holds heat.  What exactly do you imagine is the consequence of this over time? NASA will tell you that global warming is real and that humans are causing it.  But perhaps some believe that the moon landings were done in a hollywood studio.

Can you scientifically prove that Carbon, does, in fact, impact the temperature of the atmosphere? Why can't the heating be caused by the normal heating/cooling cycles of the Sun? I suspect the Sun has much more impact on our atmosphere than any trace element that may be released would have.

Scientific studies I have read indicate that the greenhose gas heating follow (that is, lag behind) the natural heating/cooling of the atmosphere thus, saying greenhouse gasses are the cause of the heating don't compute IMHO.

This is the kind of discussion that needs to take place between scientists, not those of us who have little or no knowledge on the subject, other than what we read in the news and scientific journals. I am not an expert by any means and don't presume to even understand all of the parameters behind the issues.

When someone makes statements that "warmers" or "anti-warmers" can't dispute something, they are making an assumption which may or may not be true. Unless that person can back it up with absolute proven facts then he/she is merely stirring the pot which results in even further angst by the readers of those posts.

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Offline Weather Display

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #16 on: November 23, 2011, 06:02:53 PM »
yes there are natural climate cycles
and yes there are sun activity cycles (sun spot cycles and other longer period cycles)
you overlay those cycles with a warming trend

also note that green house gases makes the earth warmer than it would be without them
they are needed...they are an insulator, keeping the warmth in from the sun instead of it escaping (especialy at night (night time temperature have increased as green house gases has increased (more so than day time temperatures))

also note re sea level rise: its happened before, and its been much lower than it is now
so if the sea level has changed before, there is no reason why it wont or cant change again...I would say the changes in the past have been relataively slow...but what we are seeing now is a relatively fast increase in sea level..after being stable...while the  climate has been relatively stable
(since the last major ice age or warm inter glacial period).

saying that greenhouse gases are just trace elements is not realising how potent those gases are at making the atmosphere warmer than it would be if they were not there (I have read by 15C or so), even though they are only a small fraction of the atmoshpere

Offline arrowspace90

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #17 on: November 24, 2011, 12:52:27 PM »
   Article about research revealing a mega-drought in the past and that extreme weather is part of a natural cycle.

Yeah, but you can't tell the Warmers that.

No, you can't, because the "anti-warmers" cannot dispute the fact that carbon is being pumped into the atomosphere by humans in record amounts never before seen.
Carbon is a greenhouse gas that holds heat.  What exactly do you imagine is the consequence of this over time? NASA will tell you that global warming is real and that humans are causing it.  But perhaps some believe that the moon landings were done in a hollywood studio.

Can you scientifically prove that Carbon, does, in fact, impact the temperature of the atmosphere? Why can't the heating be caused by the normal heating/cooling cycles of the Sun? I suspect the Sun has much more impact on our atmosphere than any trace element that may be released would have.

Scientific studies I have read indicate that the greenhose gas heating follow (that is, lag behind) the natural heating/cooling of the atmosphere thus, saying greenhouse gasses are the cause of the heating don't compute IMHO.

This is the kind of discussion that needs to take place between scientists, not those of us who have little or no knowledge on the subject, other than what we read in the news and scientific journals. I am not an expert by any means and don't presume to even understand all of the parameters behind the issues.

When someone makes statements that "warmers" or "anti-warmers" can't dispute something, they are making an assumption which may or may not be true. Unless that person can back it up with absolute proven facts then he/she is merely stirring the pot which results in even further angst by the readers of those posts.




http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

If you need to be a rocket scientist to appreciate the evidence that GW is real, here is what the rocket scientists actually say about it.  The evidence is very real and is ignored at our peril.


Online W3DRM

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #18 on: November 25, 2011, 01:36:31 PM »
   Article about research revealing a mega-drought in the past and that extreme weather is part of a natural cycle.

Yeah, but you can't tell the Warmers that.

No, you can't, because the "anti-warmers" cannot dispute the fact that carbon is being pumped into the atomosphere by humans in record amounts never before seen.
Carbon is a greenhouse gas that holds heat.  What exactly do you imagine is the consequence of this over time? NASA will tell you that global warming is real and that humans are causing it.  But perhaps some believe that the moon landings were done in a hollywood studio.

Can you scientifically prove that Carbon, does, in fact, impact the temperature of the atmosphere? Why can't the heating be caused by the normal heating/cooling cycles of the Sun? I suspect the Sun has much more impact on our atmosphere than any trace element that may be released would have.

Scientific studies I have read indicate that the greenhose gas heating follow (that is, lag behind) the natural heating/cooling of the atmosphere thus, saying greenhouse gasses are the cause of the heating don't compute IMHO.

This is the kind of discussion that needs to take place between scientists, not those of us who have little or no knowledge on the subject, other than what we read in the news and scientific journals. I am not an expert by any means and don't presume to even understand all of the parameters behind the issues.

When someone makes statements that "warmers" or "anti-warmers" can't dispute something, they are making an assumption which may or may not be true. Unless that person can back it up with absolute proven facts then he/she is merely stirring the pot which results in even further angst by the readers of those posts.




http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence/

If you need to be a rocket scientist to appreciate the evidence that GW is real, here is what the rocket scientists actually say about it.  The evidence is very real and is ignored at our peril.

Okay, take a look at this article and then tell me why I, or anyone else, should believe the "evidence" that some groups are puting forth? It's just amazing to me that so-called "evidence" that may contradict data that they want to show, is being hidden or deleted. Tell my why, and then I may start believing some of the global warming statements that you and many others are supporting.


And, here is another link to another Forbes article regarding NASA "evidence" that contradicts some other warming theories...


I guess the real question here is "who should one believe?" when it comes to what the truth is. In my opinion, as long as politicians and government are involved, we are on a lose lose trail to find the true answers to these questions. As someone else said, it may be too late to do anything anyway even if the "warmers" are correct.

« Last Edit: November 25, 2011, 01:50:29 PM by W3DRM »
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Offline Weather Display

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #19 on: November 25, 2011, 02:09:16 PM »
sure you will find stuff that conradicts something else on the internet if you go looking for it
it does not really matter that you are not convinced though
what does matter is that there are more scientists who specialise in this field are convinced that are not
to me, that is what does matter

Online W3DRM

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #20 on: November 25, 2011, 02:38:02 PM »
sure you will find stuff that conradicts something else on the internet if you go looking for it
it does not really matter that you are not convinced though
what does matter is that there are more scientists who specialise in this field are convinced that are not
to me, that is what does matter

Somewhere in this forum in another thread regarding the GW issue there was some reference to the "real reason" why more scientists support man-made GW than don't is simply because most scientists are funded by government/political grants and without those grants they are unable to continue their work. The supposition is that given the fact they have to obtain grants to do their work, they are more likely to produce results that support whatever a particular government's or organization's (i.e. the UN's IPCC) public position is on a given subject. It all boils down to money. If someone writes articles that are against a particular popular position then they are less likely to get the funding to do their studies.

But again I must ask the question, why is it so many seem to be bent on deleting or destroying data? What have they got to hide?

You can follow the crowd if you wish but I am not ready to jump off that cliff myself just because it is the popular/majority thing to do at the moment. I'm going to take the time to read and study as best I can both sides of the argument. Hopefully, that will allow me to better understand the whole picture of global warming and its causes/effects to mankind.

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Offline arrowspace90

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Re: Historic Mega-drought
« Reply #21 on: November 28, 2011, 11:56:10 PM »
the "crowd" is the large majority of scientists.