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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Tropical Weather => Topic started by: Stratocaster on September 03, 2017, 03:54:55 PM

Title: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Stratocaster on September 03, 2017, 03:54:55 PM
This looks to be a beast of a storm, and has been making a beeline for the NE corner of the Lesser Antilles for a few days now.

The big question (as always) is "when will it turn"? Just a few degrees while in the southern latitudes makes a big difference as it heads north.

I am personally watching very closely, as we live in Nassau, Bahamas, and we are just now fully recovered from the direct hit by Cat 4 Matthew last October. Where we live, the NE eyewall went right over us.

For now, we will follow the advice "Hope for the best but prepare for the worst".
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 03, 2017, 03:59:56 PM
For now, we will follow the advice "Hope for the best but prepare for the worst".
Smart. Best way not to thin the gene pool. ;)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 03, 2017, 06:07:45 PM
Irma's just part of the story.
That little low pressure wave/blip hanging around in the SW GOM to the Bay of Campeche just merited an NHC bump up to having some development potential soon, as it moves to the NW (look out Rio Grande Valley & Corpus and ?).

And that proto-depression with a large potential for development creeping along in Harvey’s footsteps the last few days, way out in the Atlantic, continues to have very good odds of becoming ‘something’ big too.

The official hurricane season is barely half over and shows more than normal activity, of course it could also continue into Dec and Jan too, like some recently.
Fun times…no such thing as climate change though... :twisted:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5 (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=5)

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 03, 2017, 08:37:10 PM
Definitely keeping an eye, ( pun intended) on Irma. Some models have it coming right up to the Florida coast then turning north.
Next weekend we'll know for sure.
I might even fill up the gas cans tomorrow for the genny. After what we saw with Harvey there will probably be panic buying here. Hey if it pass's by just fill up the cars.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 03, 2017, 10:39:32 PM
Still a week to go for peak hurricane season.

(http://www.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/thumbnails/image/PHOTO-Tropical%20storm%20and%20hurricane%20days%20Atlantic%20basin-%2081916-NOAA-831x546-Landscape.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DJFaninTN on September 04, 2017, 02:13:45 AM
my bet is that this one ends up in the gulf (which I hate). need to stock up on some supplies tomorrow .. just in case.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 04, 2017, 09:57:51 AM
Irma's starting to look a bit like Andrew. Irma's track has now changed considerably from earlier when it was plotted to just sweep up well offshore the Atlantic shore.
Now it looks like there's a good chance it goes through the Cuban Strait to the Gulf, or even crosses S. Florida and then enters the GOM, all as a "major" cyclone (Category 3 or above).
And there's another hi-prob proto-cyclone brewing behind it a week or so. Plus that little 'thing' in the SW GOM/Bay of Campeche that's been cooking too.
Batten down the hatches and hang on...

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 04, 2017, 10:09:27 AM
This morning's ensembles from the Euro and GFS.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Glenn on September 04, 2017, 03:00:34 PM
Wow, rights towards FLA. We spent a lot of time in Clearwater. Hoping for the best wherever this one lands.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 04, 2017, 04:06:51 PM
How about some 4pm spaghetti?

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 04, 2017, 05:26:13 PM
Not much difference in the 11AM 120hr position and 5PM 120hr position. Really don't want this thing to get into the Gulf.
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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Old Tele man on September 04, 2017, 06:43:27 PM
Those tracks illustrate *why* so many sailing ships "went down" along the Caribbean banks and eastern southern USA coasts.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 04, 2017, 07:04:50 PM
Those tracks illustrate *why* so many sailing ships "went down" along the Caribbean banks and eastern southern USA coasts.
Silly man, nothing to do with it. UFO's under 12,000 ft of water in the "triangle"..... :-"
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 04, 2017, 07:22:14 PM
Not to freak y'all out, but here are three spaghetti ensemble model* current looks that include what is probably the worst case eventuality.
1. The HMNI model (an extrapolation of the HMON, my favorites) takes Irma into the Gulf of Mexico as a Cat 4+. This wouldn't be good for S. FL, the Keys, or Cuba.

2. The HMNI intensity model has Irma ramping up to a Category 5+ once in the Gulf, with sustained winds near 160Kts, 184Mph (Cat 6?...).

3. The GDF/Canadian ensemble tracks that take Irma through the South and past KY, TN, IN, OH, MI, PA, and into Canada and possibly the NE. There was another cyclone that hit the Gulf Coast and all the way to Montreal and NE some years back. Of course billions of tons of precipitation will go along.

* All the models have a disclaimer that the most current NHC forecasts supersede all, as the official position/view.

(PS: Wish the forum commenting warned of 'too large file sizes' before the Preview, I lost my former better written comment (and time) when I flubbed the error from using larger png files instead of small jpgs, grrrr. I usually take a 'copy', but didn't; that's always when there's a glitch.)

Three spaghetti ensemble images:
1. The current spaghetti ensemble, showing the HMNI entering the GOM:
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2. The Intensity spaghetti ensemble, with the HMNI going to near 160Kts after Irma enters the GOM:
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3. The spaghetti ensemble showing tracks through the S and mid-section, Great Lakes, Canada, NE:
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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Old Tele man on September 04, 2017, 08:26:26 PM
Those tracks illustrate *why* so many sailing ships "went down" along the Caribbean banks and eastern southern USA coasts.
Silly man, nothing to do with it. UFO's under 12,000 ft of water in the "triangle"..... :-"
Somebody has watched the movie, "The ABYSS," too many times  \:D/
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 04, 2017, 08:27:33 PM
Interesting graphic showing landfall probabilities from 98 12z models of the EURO/GFS/CMC.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 04, 2017, 08:39:47 PM
Let's hope the HWRF is wrong.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 04, 2017, 09:02:08 PM
Let's hope the HWRF is wrong.

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OMFG, looks worse than Harvey did at landfall:

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 04, 2017, 10:41:32 PM
Latest 10pm runs.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 05, 2017, 07:54:09 AM
Latest run. a 50 mile shift west puts Irma coming on shore in Naples.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 05, 2017, 07:57:51 AM
C5 with 175 mile winds
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Stratocaster on September 05, 2017, 08:02:01 AM
This is going to be catastrophic for Antigua, St Kitts & Nevis and Puerto Rico.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 05, 2017, 10:49:19 AM
Two models take Irma to near 170Kts. The HMNI in ~6hours then slow decline, and the NVGI from ~6hrs out to ~3days...
170Kts is ~196Mph sustained, with of course higher gusts, for hours of it; nothing withstands those conditions.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 05, 2017, 11:24:30 AM
And Jose is now following.



Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: weatherc on September 05, 2017, 12:14:23 PM
Two models take Irma to near 170Kts. The HMNI in ~6hours then slow decline, and the NVGI from ~6hrs out to ~3days...
170Kts is ~196Mph sustained, with of course higher gusts, for hours of it; nothing withstands those conditions.

For us Europeans, 170 kts do 88 m/s or 314 km/h.   :shock: :shock: :shock:
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 05, 2017, 01:03:11 PM
Two models take Irma to near 170Kts. The HMNI in ~6hours then slow decline, and the NVGI from ~6hrs out to ~3days...
170Kts is ~196Mph sustained, with of course higher gusts, for hours of it; nothing withstands those conditions.

For us Europeans, 170 kts do 88 m/s or 314 km/h.   :shock: :shock: :shock:

Heheh, I stand amended. And I learned the metric system ~6 decades ago in school, and from then on, but when we see that mostly obsolete US one in daily use...
Hurricane Irma's going to be a 'b----' in any measurement system.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 05, 2017, 02:08:09 PM
We sit about 95 air miles from the north gulf coast.  In 1995, when Opal was trekking northward, I made a joke to a friend of mine in Milton, Florida, about how to build a hurricane-proof warehouse..build it 90 miles inland.  Opal must of heard me because she came into south Alabama and, seriously, brought her eye directly over my house.  She landed as a Cat-3, I believe.  We sustained damage everywhere and lost half of the roof on our warehouse...but the loss in trees was even more staggering.  No jokes allowed anymore.

The way those models are showing it running the length of Florida is very unnerving.  Running the length it will still be able to pull some energy in from the east and west coastal waters but hopefully the land will sap a bit of it's energy.  If it enters the nice, warm, balmy Gulf of Mexico all bets are off...it will indeed turn into a beast with, I believe, a mind of it's own.  Whatever that is in the SW corner of the Gulf, I believe, will help nudge Irma northward if/when she enters the Gulf.

I'm no educated weatherman, but I've seen many hurricanes, both wimps and monsters, come my way.  The projected path keeps it over water all the way to the Florida Straits without making landfall that could drain some of it's energy.  This is one to watch closely.

I'm no weatherman, but I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express several years ago...
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 05, 2017, 04:52:35 PM
The 1800 UTC models are out (usual model disclaimer).
Several more in the current tracks ensemble are now taking Irma into the east  Gulf, where SST's remain anomalously high. Many are converging on a path up the middle of Florida.
The current intensity ensemble now has two models peaking Irma above 180Kts (+ 207Mph, 333Kph, 93M/s), one of them at 185Kts. That's well above an EF-5 tornado level of destruction, but sustained for perhaps hours, not minutes. Wondering about what kind of barometric pressure that would be, sub-900mb?

NHC 2PM AST update has Hurricane Irma at 185 mph, baro 926 mb (27.34 inches hg) and falling; the track/cone appears to have been nudged westward into the GOM (by Sun 0800h).

Hurricane Irma could be an apocalyptic event, in many places.  :-(

Then there's Jose.
And I'm watching little baby Invest 95, OOPS, Tropical Depression 13 (a growing sprout), down in the Bay of Campeche/SW GOM offshore of Tampico, MX, the models mostly have it do a loop and head across MX to the Pacific, one goes to a Cat 2, the rest just a TS. But you never know.... 

All this information brought to us by the factual scientific data gathering and analytical methods used throughout the rational world.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 05, 2017, 05:16:33 PM
We sit about 95 air miles from the north gulf coast.  In 1995, when Opal was trekking northward, I made a joke to a friend of mine in Milton, Florida, about how to build a hurricane-proof warehouse..build it 90 miles inland.  Opal must of heard me because she came into south Alabama and, seriously, brought her eye directly over my house.  She landed as a Cat-3, I believe.  We sustained damage everywhere and lost half of the roof on our warehouse...but the loss in trees was even more staggering.  No jokes allowed anymore.
...


See the third pic down at the link below for what a marina drystack boat warehouse (actually, two of them were destroyed), on the GICW just off Aransas Bay, looks like after Category 4 Hurricane Harvey rolled over it (can't find a better pic link on my lousy connection). The same for many trees too, let alone all the homes and businesses.
And Hurricane Irma could be worse, much worse...

https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/26/coastal-texas-countys-long-recovery-hurricane-harvey-begins-amid-turmo/ (https://www.texastribune.org/2017/08/26/coastal-texas-countys-long-recovery-hurricane-harvey-begins-amid-turmo/)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 05, 2017, 05:22:37 PM
The 5PM 120hr position according to the NHC  is roughly the same as the 11AM. Mid/Southern Keys. Still no northward jog yet. The further west it gets the more worried I get.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 05, 2017, 05:35:57 PM
The best loop of stadium effect I've ever seen. May take a moment to load. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=200&loop_speed_ms=80

Edit, darkness falling, just upped the loop to 200 images.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 05, 2017, 05:58:06 PM
The 5PM 120hr position according to the NHC  is roughly the same as the 11AM. Mid/Southern Keys. Still no northward jog yet. The further west it gets the more worried I get.

At a slight time offset of course (6 hour later fcst), the Latitude is the same 24.4N, but Longitude is bumped 0.3 to the west, 81.5W, and wind is down 5Kt.
Hardly counts ATT, but official NHC fcst has been getting nudged westward for a while, adjusting for more of the models sliding west before the expected turn NW/N. Kinda looks like Irma's on rails overall.  :shock:

Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
1100 AM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/1500Z 16.8N  58.4W  155 KT 180 MPH
 12H  06/0000Z 17.2N  60.3W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  06/1200Z 18.1N  63.0W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  07/0000Z 19.1N  65.9W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  07/1200Z 20.1N  68.7W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  08/1200Z 21.4N  74.0W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  09/1200Z 22.7N  78.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
120H  10/1200Z 24.4N  81.2W  125 KT 145 MPH

------------------------------------------------------
Hurricane Irma Discussion Number  27
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
500 PM AST Tue Sep 05 2017
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  05/2100Z 17.1N  59.8W  160 KT 185 MPH
 12H  06/0600Z 17.6N  61.8W  155 KT 180 MPH
 24H  06/1800Z 18.5N  64.6W  150 KT 175 MPH
 36H  07/0600Z 19.5N  67.3W  145 KT 165 MPH
 48H  07/1800Z 20.4N  70.1W  140 KT 160 MPH
 72H  08/1800Z 21.6N  75.3W  135 KT 155 MPH
 96H  09/1800Z 22.7N  79.3W  125 KT 145 MPH
120H  10/1800Z 24.4N  81.5W  120 KT 140 MPH
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 05, 2017, 07:45:54 PM
The best loop of stadium effect I've ever seen. May take a moment to load. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=200&loop_speed_ms=80

Edit, darkness falling, just upped the loop to 200 images.
Can't wait till 16 becomes operational. Those images are outstanding.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 05, 2017, 08:22:46 PM
The best loop of stadium effect I've ever seen. May take a moment to load. http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=goes-16/mesoscale_01_band_02_sector_05&width=1000&height=1000&number_of_images_to_display=200&loop_speed_ms=80

Edit, darkness falling, just upped the loop to 200 images.
Can't wait till 16 becomes operational. Those images are outstanding.
The resolution is incredible. Waiting for daylight again, the visible loop to me has the most "wow" factor, especially at this stage of development.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 05, 2017, 11:09:21 PM
Hoollee Carp!
With the 11PM AST NHC main page update, there could be THREE hurricanes going in a couple of days.
Little TD 13 is growing down in the Bay of Campeche, may become Hurricane Katia, and may move to the east soon, into super-warm water. Irma and Jose just getting stronger too.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 06, 2017, 07:45:25 AM
All the major forecast tracks have Irma staying off the east coast of FL and heading to the Carolinas. The official NHC track has it going up the middle of FL but it normally takes the NHC a run to catch up to the others. For FL sake, let's hope it continues the eastward trend.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 06, 2017, 12:00:30 PM
It is time to start planning here in East Carolina. This latest turn is very dangerous for us. I am looking at going over towards possibly as far as Greenville SC, or up towards High Point, or even the mountains or west side of VA if needed. Anyone have any advice on locations to get to from coastal carolina?
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 06, 2017, 12:06:02 PM
Asheville?

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 06, 2017, 12:40:50 PM
I keep hearing 'media' people, newsreaders, 'reporters', even TV meteorologists, refer to Hurricane Irma as having winds UP TO 185mph. I hate to quibble, but this is how a nation is dumbed down, a bit at a time.
No, you cretins, NOAA/NHC reports and discussions for some time have been stating that Irma's "sustained winds" are 185mph.
This means that the ongoing, steady state, base wind speed is just that, 185mph.
This also means that Irma is "having" inevitable wind gusts within the core area that are reaching well above, "UP TO", 200mph, perhaps even 225mph+. Since the force relationship to wind speed is expressed logarithmically, this means that the destruction will be unimaginable.

IOW, given current tracks and intensities, it's buh bye Miami, Daytona, Savanna, Charleston, et al.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SoMDWx on September 06, 2017, 12:55:05 PM
ease up....geez #-o
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 06, 2017, 03:37:40 PM
It is time to start planning here in East Carolina. This latest turn is very dangerous for us. I am looking at going over towards possibly as far as Greenville SC, or up towards High Point, or even the mountains or west side of VA if needed. Anyone have any advice on locations to get to from coastal carolina?
In 1984 my family and I rode out Diana in your exact neighborhood. Even if Irma comes ashore at New River, all you'll have to worry about is wind and rain (not that that's not enough...) but IMHO your too far inland to worry about storm surge. Of course how long you're without power and drinking water in this scenario.........
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 06, 2017, 04:17:44 PM
Been a huge jump east for the official track from last night at 11.
Curious to see what the 5PM  forecast is.
Still  4 days out so corrections either way will be huge.
Maybe we'll get lucky, with exception of the poor island folks who have suffered so far, that it will turn out to sea.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 06, 2017, 04:43:53 PM
It is time to start planning here in East Carolina. This latest turn is very dangerous for us. I am looking at going over towards possibly as far as Greenville SC, or up towards High Point, or even the mountains or west side of VA if needed. Anyone have any advice on locations to get to from coastal carolina?
In 1984 my family and I rode out Diana in your exact neighborhood. Even if Irma comes ashore at New River, all you'll have to worry about is wind and rain (not that that's not enough...) but IMHO your too far inland to worry about storm surge. Of course how long you're without power and drinking water in this scenario.........
I've ridden out most of the storms since Bertha in 96, but this one is a storm I don't want to chance if it is coming here, which right now, it may be a problem for the GA / SC line and move inland. The major models are going that way, but I'm still nervous.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 06, 2017, 05:13:42 PM
Latest from the NHC moves the track a bit west for what could be a direct hit on Miami with wind speeds around 145MPH.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 06, 2017, 05:21:54 PM
Yep, nudged just a bit west.
Sometime early Monday morning it should be directly east of me in the vicinity of Daytona. Hopefully well off shore.
C'mon baby move east.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jasiu on September 06, 2017, 06:07:11 PM
It's now a trifecta...

(http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/xgtwo/two_atl_0d0.png?062055)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 06, 2017, 06:43:00 PM
I remember something like 15 years or so ago there were 4 full fledged hurricanes, all in the Atlantic, none in the Gulf. Kinda tough to do, they don't particularly care to share environment.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 07, 2017, 08:19:31 AM
Morning runs still shoving the storm into the GA/SC area.

(https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/11L_gefs_06z.png)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DaleReid on September 07, 2017, 09:28:25 AM
I've been scanning this thread, along with doing some google 'research' along with just asking some meteorologists I know but haven't gotten an answer.  Is there someone here who has a link or explanation as to:

Despite a relatively straight track for over a week, the models predict a very sudden change in the track of Hurricane Irma as it gets just South of Florida.  What does the modelling software take into account to cause this shift in direction?

I can't believe that having smashed a few tiny islands that going along Cuba can alter the course.  Is it less energy picked up from the warm water along with moisture being denied by the landmass of Cuba?  If it stays further from Cuba it still makes this dramatic turn.

Has anyone seen an explanation for this, or what the real cause is?  (one layperson's opinion was it it was 'bouncing' off Cuba, which made me not trust his scientific background too much.

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DaleReid on September 07, 2017, 09:31:30 AM
When we had the luxury of visiting St. Thomas a few decades ago we took a tour of one of the other islands and saw a leeward bay called Hurricane Bay.  Some protection, I'm sure, but not a good place to be during a big storm, either.

What does the US Coast Guard and Navy do with their big boats during such times?  And what about those ships which are in dry dock or retrofit and cannot move under their own power, such as in Newport News, etc. when a hurricane hits?  I'd think that even tied up there would be a lot of force on the tie down points when an aircraft carrier gets lifted by a storm surge or blow sideways into the dock by 100 mph winds.

Is anyone from a branch of the wet services that knows or been through one?
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 07, 2017, 09:34:38 AM
I've been scanning this thread, along with doing some google 'research' along with just asking some meteorologists I know but haven't gotten an answer.  Is there someone here who has a link or explanation as to:

Despite a relatively straight track for over a week, the models predict a very sudden change in the track of Hurricane Irma as it gets just South of Florida.  What does the modelling software take into account to cause this shift in direction?

I can't believe that having smashed a few tiny islands that going along Cuba can alter the course.  Is it less energy picked up from the warm water along with moisture being denied by the landmass of Cuba?  If it stays further from Cuba it still makes this dramatic turn.

Has anyone seen an explanation for this, or what the real cause is?  (one layperson's opinion was it it was 'bouncing' off Cuba, which made me not trust his scientific background too much.



I have seen that the low coming down from the NW towards the SE is going to push the storm between it and the Bermuda High, causing the direction change and the left turn again after it gets to GA/SC line.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jasiu on September 07, 2017, 10:13:15 AM
I've been scanning this thread, along with doing some google 'research' along with just asking some meteorologists I know but haven't gotten an answer.  Is there someone here who has a link or explanation as to:

Despite a relatively straight track for over a week, the models predict a very sudden change in the track of Hurricane Irma as it gets just South of Florida.  What does the modelling software take into account to cause this shift in direction?

I can't believe that having smashed a few tiny islands that going along Cuba can alter the course.  Is it less energy picked up from the warm water along with moisture being denied by the landmass of Cuba?  If it stays further from Cuba it still makes this dramatic turn.

Has anyone seen an explanation for this, or what the real cause is?  (one layperson's opinion was it it was 'bouncing' off Cuba, which made me not trust his scientific background too much.

If you watch the weather channel for long enough they get into it with graphics and everything. It is a combination of the Atlantic high pressure with an expected trough across the continental US.  Basically, Irma will be "coming around the corner" of the high, which has been mostly responsible for the current track. The trough is expected to prohibit further westward motion, thus the abrupt nudge north.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 07, 2017, 11:23:36 AM
Hoolleee Chit!
Hurricane Jose is tracking very close behind Hurricane Irma and is fixing to slam into the same Northern Leeward Islands that Irma just leveled! Can't imagine what those people are enduring over there.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090123.shtml?cone#contents (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/090123.shtml?cone#contents)
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?atlc)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 07, 2017, 03:30:18 PM
I can't believe that having smashed a few tiny islands that going along Cuba can alter the course.  Is it less energy picked up from the warm water along with moisture being denied by the landmass of Cuba?  If it stays further from Cuba it still makes this dramatic turn.

Has anyone seen an explanation for this, or what the real cause is?  (one layperson's opinion was it it was 'bouncing' off Cuba, which made me not trust his scientific background too much.

What does the US Coast Guard and Navy do with their big boats during such times?  And what about those ships which are in dry dock or retrofit and cannot move under their own power, such as in Newport News, etc. when a hurricane hits?  I'd think that even tied up there would be a lot of force on the tie down points when an aircraft carrier gets lifted by a storm surge or blow sideways into the dock by 100 mph winds.

Is anyone from a branch of the wet services that knows or been through one?

Tropical systems are a surface based low pressure system and they act like a cork floating in a large pool, they go wherever flows, eddies, currents in the atmosphere push it. Land fall, brief or not, does not effect the track of the storm, merely cuts off the fuel supply.

As far as ships, I know "small boys" as we called them, (destroyers, cruisers, and such) leave port if necessary. If the storm is strong enough, I believe just about any able ship leaves port and seeks safety well away from the path. As far as dry dock, I have no idea.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 07, 2017, 03:59:56 PM
My early prediction of eye landfall. Very unscientific just looking at current course.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 07, 2017, 05:20:38 PM
How apropos, Key Largo, excellent movie! Johnny Rocco! :twisted:
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Sooner Al on September 07, 2017, 07:30:01 PM
FWIW...

Cuban weather radar sites...

http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADARES

Link seems dead this morning at 4.51 AM CDT...Hmmm...
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 07, 2017, 08:24:07 PM
How apropos, Key Largo, excellent movie! Johnny Rocco! :twisted:

I just watched it recently on TCM, it was entertaining.  :-)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: weatherist34 on September 08, 2017, 01:19:02 PM
Some coincidence...
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Sooner Al on September 08, 2017, 04:49:29 PM
Cuban radar back...

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 08, 2017, 06:31:11 PM
Back to a SW Fla hit.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 08, 2017, 06:38:07 PM
Back to a SW Fla hit.

What's ETA on this? I was looking at hurricane center and it looks like around sunrise Sunday morning for eye making landfall if I was seeing right.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 08, 2017, 06:42:14 PM
Now it looks more like 1-2 pm but eye going to be so close all morning if it tracks like this.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 08, 2017, 06:54:22 PM
Back to a SW Fla hit.

What's ETA on this? I was looking at hurricane center and it looks like around sunrise Sunday morning for eye making landfall if I was seeing right.
Sunday about 2 PM
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WxLover16 on September 08, 2017, 06:55:59 PM
This looks to come real close to making a possible brief landfall in northern Cuba. Not sure where exactly the big mountains are but since this is a big storm I'm thinking it will injest a bunch of dry air from those mountains and weaken more than forecast. Maybe that will save SW FL from something not seen in our lifetime.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 08, 2017, 07:02:21 PM
The bigger mountains are in the center of the island. Not forcasted to go that far inland.
Probably disrupt the flow some and weaken it but that's bath water between Cuba and south Fl.
Could easily strengthen again. Then again maybe not.
Just sit back and see what happens. 
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 08, 2017, 07:12:40 PM
My station and the one at Ocala airport are identical at 29.99.
Curious to see how they will compare as the storm pass's by.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 08, 2017, 07:37:50 PM
it will injest a bunch of dry air from those mountains and weaken more than forecast.
I've never heard that mountains make "dry air". Are you meaning to say that brief land fall will weaken it? If so, don't hold your breath...
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WxLover16 on September 08, 2017, 08:00:54 PM
it will injest a bunch of dry air from those mountains and weaken more than forecast.
I've never heard that mountains make "dry air". Are you meaning to say that brief land fall will weaken it? If so, don't hold your breath...

What I meant is that as the air downslopes (and dries) from the mountains around the flow of the hurricane and gets injested into Irma, maybe it will help weaken her a little. Then again as the above poster said, she will still be in bath water so who knows...
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DoctorKnow on September 08, 2017, 08:12:36 PM
The new prediction indicates Category 5 again at landfall in the SW corner of FL.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 08, 2017, 08:28:12 PM
it will injest a bunch of dry air from those mountains and weaken more than forecast.
I've never heard that mountains make "dry air". Are you meaning to say that brief land fall will weaken it? If so, don't hold your breath...

What I meant is that as the air downslopes (and dries) from the mountains around the flow of the hurricane and gets injested into Irma, maybe it will help weaken her a little. Then again as the above poster said, she will still be in bath water so who knows...
Downslope can indeed dry, as well as heat air (coincidental), but in this instance, non-existent. As all tropical systems, it's a heavy rainer at minimum, no drying that air. Drying can only come from the mid/upper levels of the atmosphere being pulled into the storm, something that's not going to happen.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 08, 2017, 08:31:57 PM
Currently back to C5 and may be stronger than before.

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jasiu on September 08, 2017, 09:20:13 PM
Keys will get it morning on Sunday. I really hope everybody got out - or is on their way.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 09, 2017, 08:23:30 AM
Weakened over Cuba but could strengthen some as it moves north.  130 MPH this morning CAT 4.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 09, 2017, 01:06:48 PM
I hope everyone has left.  If you're staying, I hope you have adequate shelter.  it's going to be very ugly all day Sunday and part of the day Monday.  It's supposed to get to us Tuesday (although it will be much weaker).  Good luck to everyone.

This is a strange year that two tropical storms are predicted to come right over (plus we were in the path of totality for the eclipse).
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 09, 2017, 02:14:51 PM
Where ya' been Slow?   Last post was over a year ago!
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DJFaninTN on September 09, 2017, 02:15:47 PM
still watching from the panhandle making sure it doesn't go due west anymore. it wouldn't shock me if that happened.

waiting on putting up hurricane shutters until late Saturday PM or early Sunday AM.  :roll:
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 09, 2017, 02:35:10 PM
If Irma gets to me as the five day track hints, it would be the third this year after Cindy and Harvey.

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 09, 2017, 02:49:05 PM
If Irma gets to me as the five day track hints, it would be the third this year after Cindy and Harvey.

Hmmm, 2017, an anomalous year, ~1850-2017, an anomalous period; or the "New Normal"  :twisted:, hint hint .
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CNYWeather on September 09, 2017, 03:02:44 PM
Not everyone has left. You can watch the dummies this afternoon on the Southernmost Point webcam

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 09, 2017, 03:17:51 PM
You would think from that cam there's no storm coming.
Here's another live one from key west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGD1byu7gJc
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 09, 2017, 03:32:53 PM
Strange video from Long Island in the bahamas. Storm pushed all the water out.
I have seen this in the past but on Lake Erie. A strong west to NW wind pushed all the water in the west end of the lake to the east. Never seen it in the ocean though.
https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU
 
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Sooner Al on September 09, 2017, 03:43:47 PM
From NWS Key West...

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 09, 2017, 03:52:10 PM
Key West radar is showing the eye wall moving completely back over water.... 8-[ 
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 09, 2017, 04:08:41 PM
Key West radar is showing the eye wall moving completely back over water.... 8-[
Right on cue, the CDO is getting it's act back together. Oh boy...Now we watch for the progged right turn.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ValentineWeather on September 09, 2017, 05:01:29 PM
Strange video from Long Island in the bahamas. Storm pushed all the water out.
I have seen this in the past but on Lake Erie. A strong west to NW wind pushed all the water in the west end of the lake to the east. Never seen it in the ocean though.
https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU

When this happens you go fast and far away as you can.
Most memorable for me was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami sucking the beaches dry and people wandering around, most didn't make it.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 09, 2017, 05:15:00 PM
Strange video from Long Island in the bahamas. Storm pushed all the water out.
I have seen this in the past but on Lake Erie. A strong west to NW wind pushed all the water in the west end of the lake to the east. Never seen it in the ocean though.
https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU

When this happens you go fast and far away as you can.
Most memorable for me was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami sucking the beaches dry and people wandering around, most didn't make it.
I have seen it in regards to tsunami's but not not wind driven.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 09, 2017, 05:15:40 PM
Yes, Irma's beginning to lift away from the Cuban coast, a very slight bend in course northward.
How, and if, this course change holds and/or increases, will determine where it slices the Keys, and where it impacts the Florida coast.
Irma will be crossing the area where the Gulf Loop Current joins the Gulf Stream, and both are anomalously warm now, a significant intensification could be just hours away.
Irma could also possibly traverse and remain over the East part of the Loop Current, this link has a good write-up on how that has intensified many cyclones (as does the Gulf Stream).
Gulf Loop Current (http://Gulf Loop Current)
All the models take it onto a WNW/NW/NNW/N course, but it's now clear the Irma will have an excursion to some degree into the Gulf of Mexico, where SST's (and positive heat anomaly) could affect that and certainly the intensity.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 09, 2017, 05:28:02 PM
Strange video from Long Island in the bahamas. Storm pushed all the water out.
I have seen this in the past but on Lake Erie. A strong west to NW wind pushed all the water in the west end of the lake to the east. Never seen it in the ocean though.
https://youtu.be/lwOQbMcXtfU

When this happens you go fast and far away as you can.
Most memorable for me was the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami sucking the beaches dry and people wandering around, most didn't make it.
I have seen it in regards to tsunami's but not not wind driven.

A wind-driven tidal movement is extremely common on many bodies of water, tsunamis are rare. The wind-water level effect is a constant factor in boat navigation. Lake Erie is a good example in extremis, Texas bays and barrier islands another. It works both ways, the water level can go down to nothing, or it can flood to record levels (on top of the normal tides).
Everything from launching a small craft from a ramp, to getting in and out of a slip and setting dock lines are affected by it. Let alone traversing 'skinny water' with a keelboat when the fetch of a brisk wind has taken a foot or four off the charted depths  :shock:.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 09, 2017, 05:38:08 PM
My plate's been kind of full.  But it's good to check in.  :)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Old Tele man on September 09, 2017, 05:53:05 PM
A SUPER WORST-CASE scenario: Irma continues into GOM and "bites" either Houston or New Orleans...again!
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 09, 2017, 06:02:00 PM
A SUPER WORST-CASE scenario: Irma continues into GOM and "bites" either Houston or New Orleans...again!
With the trough bearing down from the NW, NHC and the models think that's highly unlikely.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 09, 2017, 06:35:52 PM
Maybe premature, but the last few radar scans appear to have slowed, if not stopped the forward progress. Perhaps the trough influence is starting and the further right turn will commence shortly.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WxLover16 on September 09, 2017, 06:49:07 PM
Check this out, first time I've ever seen this in my forecast.

MondayTropical storm conditions possible. A chance of showers and thunderstorms, then showers and possibly a thunderstorm after 7am. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 65. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

Monday NightTropical storm conditions possible. Showers and possibly a thunderstorm. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. Low around 59. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

They're saying I could get about 4" of rain with gusts around 50mph or so. Gonna be nasty here!
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WxLover16 on September 09, 2017, 06:51:11 PM
Maybe premature, but the last few radar scans appear to have slowed, if not stopped the forward progress. Perhaps the trough influence is starting and the further right turn will commence shortly.

I think you're right; the turn we've all been waiting for could be coming shortly. I just hope I don't lose power.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 09, 2017, 07:29:48 PM
It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Old Tele man on September 09, 2017, 08:03:24 PM
It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history
You can see the 'rain bands' coinciding with the passing of feeder bands as they passed over that location.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: chief-david on September 09, 2017, 08:11:58 PM
It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history

From its WU station. It says it read a 250mph wind gust.
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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 09, 2017, 08:19:40 PM
It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history

From its WU station. It says it read a 250mph wind gust.
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Shocking. I remember a few years ago they had my dew point hotter than the surface of the sun. Not kidding. :roll:
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 09, 2017, 08:26:01 PM
Yeah, I think that's not going to pass the QA check.  But I never have been crazy about the way WU reports gusts.  It never seems to correspond with CWOP or PWS.

It looks to me like it's just sitting there thinking about where it wants to go.

A couple of stations I've been watching in the keys looks like they've lost power.  Here is one that is still transmitting at this time.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLMIDDL25#history

From its WU station. It says it read a 250mph wind gust.
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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 09, 2017, 10:05:59 PM
That station has stopped reporting now.  I guess the power is going to be off for a while.  I wonder how much surge there is now in the keys?
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 09, 2017, 10:45:13 PM
The Key West WFO local obs page link below. It has the area ASOS, CWOP's, Buoys, METAR's, and more. Readings for some, status, etc.
Expect most of them will go dark by morning.
http://www.weather.gov/key/obs (http://www.weather.gov/key/obs)

With Harvey, the NOAA ASOS, KRKP at 'ground zero (Rockport, TX), went down very early, long before things really heated up. But then it's had a history of that, suspect budget cuts to NOAA (and others) are having some very serious 'under the radar' effects to our nation's essential services.
Like that already on the shelf, bought and paid for DMSP 5D-3/F20 satellite (cloud-cover imagery) having it's scheduled launch zeroed out, storage costs unfunded, and a forced scrapping of the essential bird.
All because it was scheduled to be launched by up and coming competitor SpaceX, when previous launches had been handled by the monopoly firm United Launch Alliance. Millions of dollars worth of important weather technology scrapped by one spiteful, corrupt (AL) Congresscritter. "Free Markets and Competition" my azz.

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 09, 2017, 11:26:55 PM
That's a good link.  Thanks!  :)

The Key West WFO local obs page link below. It has the area ASOS, CWOP's, Buoys, METAR's, and more. Readings for some, status, etc.
Expect most of them will go dark by morning.
http://www.weather.gov/key/obs (http://www.weather.gov/key/obs)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 09, 2017, 11:36:40 PM
Here is a map of all CWOP stations.  You can move and zoom to see more detail:

http://www.kanonbra.com/maps/cwop/all_stations_in_map.html

Here are some CWOP stations in the southeastern Florida area:

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxnear.cgi?call=cw9005

Here are some CWOP stations in the southwestern Florida area:

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxnear.cgi?call=DW2901
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 01:40:02 AM
I hope everyone has left.  If you're staying, I hope you have adequate shelter.  it's going to be very ugly all day Sunday and part of the day Monday.  It's supposed to get to us Tuesday (although it will be much weaker).  Good luck to everyone.

This is a strange year that two tropical storms are predicted to come right over (plus we were in the path of totality for the eclipse).
Hey!!!! I know you!!!!!   :grin:
How's it going friend?
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 01:48:12 AM
Looks like Irma just turned northward towards Key West...17:00UTC
(http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/ir4-animated.gif)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 10, 2017, 01:58:02 AM
Yes, and quickly. Looks like it's getting it's act together too.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 02:12:15 AM
That was almost a 90-degree turn!!
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 10, 2017, 02:20:20 AM
That was 'hurricane' neck breaking. Radar shows the inner structure appearing to become more organized.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DJFaninTN on September 10, 2017, 02:20:47 AM
she's a Cat 4 again with 130mph winds. 70 miles from the Keys
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 10, 2017, 02:26:01 AM
she's a Cat 4 again with 130mph winds. 70 miles from the Keys
No surprise. It very well may hold intensity, if not increase, until the trough starts shearing it and/or landfall.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: DJFaninTN on September 10, 2017, 02:31:09 AM
yep I figured she was going to get stronger with all that bath water in the gulf. still sitting on pins and needles here if she shifts anymore west
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 10, 2017, 03:31:24 AM
I'm sure it's happened before (I guess), but I can't recall the eye passing directly over a wx radar main bang as this certainly appears that it will do. Should paint an interesting picture.  8-)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 08:11:50 AM
According to the IR image the eye is about to make landfall on the east end of Key West...
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 10, 2017, 08:17:44 AM
KW bridges are in question.

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 08:30:38 AM
Pressure 28.38 and falling in Key West...

Bridges are definitely in danger...*plenty* of those targets for Irma to take out in that 100+ mile stretch from mainland to Key West.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 08:46:02 AM
Key West International appears to have just lost it's anemometer....
7am EDT
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4437/36305326784_543d1137ea_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/XjbhN5)

8am EDT
(https://farm5.staticflickr.com/4419/36952755116_12fc0776cf_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/YiowFw)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 10, 2017, 08:48:14 AM
I posted this on the chit-chat forum but thought I'd report it here in case it wasn't seen.

Will see just how long my Vue and console lasts in Fort Myers. With 100mph+ winds projected I don't expect the ISS to last through the storm. If I can find the console after my mobile home blows away I may be able to extract some interesting data. You can see it at the link below for as long as the house had power. I'm currently holed up in Pensacola waiting for the storm to pass. www.nfmweather.com/weather/
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 08:51:47 AM
I created a shortcut last night on my desktop to be able to get to your station easily.  Looks like it's getting gusty there this morning.  Will keep a watch on it.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: waysta on September 10, 2017, 08:53:34 AM
Sky Tower Radar in Tampa Bay WTVT 13:

http://www.myfoxhurricane.com
https://livestream.com/accounts/6180769/events/3168202
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=opNnnPuhoAU
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 10, 2017, 09:02:05 AM
With all the windows boarded up it's completely dark in house.
Kind of strange really.
Getting board. I'm ready for some action.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 09:11:59 AM
I'm sitting by a window facing Alabama Hwy 10 to the south and just had a caravan of dark green pickup trucks with blue lights heading east, some pulling trailers with ATV/UTV's on them, some with large john boats...this is about 50 miles south of Montgomery.  I couldn't make out the emblem on the side of the trucks..a tall, narrow emblem. There were probably 20 of them.  FEMA(it didn't look like their emblem), game wardens from MS or LA????
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 09:12:54 AM
I hope everyone has left.  If you're staying, I hope you have adequate shelter.  it's going to be very ugly all day Sunday and part of the day Monday.  It's supposed to get to us Tuesday (although it will be much weaker).  Good luck to everyone.

This is a strange year that two tropical storms are predicted to come right over (plus we were in the path of totality for the eclipse).
Hey!!!! I know you!!!!!   :grin:
How's it going friend?

Going ok.  Lots on the plate so to speak.  got around 12 gallons of honey this year, really dark and thick.  Working way too much. Glad to see everybody.  :)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 09:17:16 AM
Fantastic on the honey, Greg!!!!  How many hives did you rob from?  I had to let mine go by the wayside...life got in the way. :(

I completely understand having a plate full.  I wish you the best on everything...take some time for yourself, we only have so much time here so enjoy some of it. :)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 09:36:44 AM
I wonder if it's instrument failure or power failure

Key West International appears to have just lost it's anemometer....
7am EDT
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 09:38:15 AM
I'll be watching it.  :)

I posted this on the chit-chat forum but thought I'd report it here in case it wasn't seen.

Will see just how long my Vue and console lasts in Fort Myers. With 100mph+ winds projected I don't expect the ISS to last through the storm. If I can find the console after my mobile home blows away I may be able to extract some interesting data. You can see it at the link below for as long as the house had power. I'm currently holed up in Pensacola waiting for the storm to pass. www.nfmweather.com/weather/
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 10, 2017, 09:39:29 AM
They are still reporting (as of 8am EDT) pressure but not wind speed.  ????
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 09:43:17 AM
Lots of power companies are sending crews south.  I'm sure mine is.  What you saw could have been Mississippi Power, Alabama Power, or some other power company.  Or it could be wildlife agencies which can be used for search/rescue/recovery.

I've wondered for years why they don't put all the power lines underground.  I know the initial cost would be high,but I'll bet they could have paid for that times over by now.

I'm sitting by a window facing Alabama Hwy 10 to the south and just had a caravan of dark green pickup trucks with blue lights heading east, some pulling trailers with ATV/UTV's on them, some with large john boats...this is about 50 miles south of Montgomery.  I couldn't make out the emblem on the side of the trucks..a tall, narrow emblem. There were probably 20 of them.  FEMA(it didn't look like their emblem), game wardens from MS or LA????
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 09:50:08 AM
Fantastic on the honey, Greg!!!!  How many hives did you rob from?  I had to let mine go by the wayside...life got in the way. :(

I completely understand having a plate full.  I wish you the best on everything...take some time for yourself, we only have so much time here so enjoy some of it. :)

I had 3 strong hives and one weak one that has died out.  I have mite strips on the three now.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 09:52:22 AM
It looks like a lot of stations have lost power.

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxnear.cgi?call=CW5385
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 10:20:11 AM
I'm watching Paul Goodloe at Naples, FL and it really looks weird how the ocean is pushed 50-100 yards below low tide.  It's like there's a wall of water behind him.  Of course the wind is blowing east to west so it's pushing the water into the gulf.

He just talked to a local that's going to stay through the storm.  He said it's going to be a "cool view" when the surge comes in.  I hope he makes it.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 10, 2017, 10:50:58 AM
Lots of power companies are sending crews south.  I'm sure mine is.  What you saw could have been Mississippi Power, Alabama Power, or some other power company.  Or it could be wildlife agencies which can be used for search/rescue/recovery.

I've wondered for years why they don't put all the power lines underground.  I know the initial cost would be high,but I'll bet they could have paid for that times over by now.

I'm sitting by a window facing Alabama Hwy 10 to the south and just had a caravan of dark green pickup trucks with blue lights heading east, some pulling trailers with ATV/UTV's on them, some with large john boats...this is about 50 miles south of Montgomery.  I couldn't make out the emblem on the side of the trucks..a tall, narrow emblem. There were probably 20 of them.  FEMA(it didn't look like their emblem), game wardens from MS or LA????
My brother was VP of a power company in Vermont. I asked him about underground power lines but he said they concluded it would be cost prohibitive.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 11:39:00 AM
My brother was VP of a power company in Vermont. I asked him about underground power lines but he said they concluded it would be cost prohibitive.

Maybe for them in VT (although they have to deal with snow and ice).  But if they're replaced a lot due to storms, it might be more feasible.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WxLover16 on September 10, 2017, 12:12:31 PM
I'm in a tropical storm warning for 50mph gusts and looks like 4" of rain and a tornado threat as I will be well on the east side of her. Fun times ahead!

BTW, I live 40 miles NNE of Atlanta, GA so this far inland usually doesn't get products like that issued.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 10, 2017, 02:02:24 PM
I'm sitting by a window facing Alabama Hwy 10 to the south and just had a caravan of dark green pickup trucks with blue lights heading east, some pulling trailers with ATV/UTV's on them, some with large john boats...this is about 50 miles south of Montgomery.  I couldn't make out the emblem on the side of the trucks..a tall, narrow emblem. There were probably 20 of them.  FEMA(it didn't look like their emblem), game wardens from MS or LA????

My guess might be US Forestry Rangers.  Maybe Border Patrol.

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: waysta on September 10, 2017, 02:34:05 PM
WABC WZVN Naples / Ft. Myers is still live streaming
http://www.abc-7.com/category/168380/abc7-live-stream
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 02:46:26 PM
From http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=CW3609&last=12

That's a pretty good drop!   :shock:
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 03:24:53 PM
N of Ft. Myers
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 10, 2017, 03:43:24 PM
Naples Bay, Naples, Marco Island has a predicted high tide which will roughly coincide with Hurricane Irma's storm surge, and a possible shelf wave, and even compound flooding.
Ditto for Fort Myers, Port Charlotte, etc., clear up the FL West Coast.
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/10/1697438/-Irma-Hits-Keys-Shelf-Wave-amp-Storm-Surge-Could-Devastate-Fort-Myers-amp-Naples (https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2017/9/10/1697438/-Irma-Hits-Keys-Shelf-Wave-amp-Storm-Surge-Could-Devastate-Fort-Myers-amp-Naples)

Today's Tides:  4:07 PM   high   2.8 ft.
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8725110 (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8725110)
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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 10, 2017, 03:59:48 PM
BAM! Hurricane Irma, high tide, storm surge, baro surge, shelf wave; all at once...

000
WTNT61 KNHC 101941
TCUAT1
Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
335 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...CENTER OF HURRICANE IRMA MAKES LANDFALL AT MARCO ISLAND...
The center of Hurricane Irma made landfall in Marco Island in
southwest Florida at 3:35 pm EDT as a Category 3 hurricane.
A 130 mph wind gust was recently reported by the Marco Island Police Department.
SUMMARY OF 335 PM EDT...1935 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.9N 81.7W
OVER MARCO ISLAND
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF NAPLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...940 MB...27.76 INCHES
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 04:03:48 PM
I'm watching Mike Bettis standing in the wind and rain.  I wonder why he's not holding an anemometer?
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 10, 2017, 04:26:24 PM
I'm watching Mike Bettis standing in the wind and rain.  I wonder why he's not holding an anemometer?

As low as $31 for a Ronstan to $120 for a Davis handheld anemometer (who is Mike Bettis?) :
http://www.defender.com/category.jsp?name=handheld-wind-instruments&path=-1|17|2028690&id=2028832 (http://www.defender.com/category.jsp?name=handheld-wind-instruments&path=-1|17|2028690&id=2028832)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 04:34:44 PM
Turn on the weather channel.  You'll see him.

I'm watching Mike Bettis standing in the wind and rain.  I wonder why he's not holding an anemometer?

As low as $31 for a Ronstan to $120 for a Davis handheld anemometer (who is Mike Bettis?) :
http://www.defender.com/category.jsp?name=handheld-wind-instruments&path=-1|17|2028690&id=2028832 (http://www.defender.com/category.jsp?name=handheld-wind-instruments&path=-1|17|2028690&id=2028832)
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 10, 2017, 04:49:56 PM
Turn on the weather channel.  You'll see him.

What's the "weather channel"?
Don't have no stinkin' cable or sat teevee, never have had it (except in lots of company lodging ww).
No cable out here, would never pay the crappy sat companies a nickel. Don't even have DSL (thanks telcos, FU), ISDN might be available (inside joke, slightly better than dialup, at much higher cost IIRC).
OTA (over the air, free) tv only.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: SlowModem on September 10, 2017, 05:34:55 PM
Well, whatever.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 10, 2017, 05:43:48 PM
Looks like she's inland for a while so the weakening trend will continue.
Latest wind forecast still calls for 50-60 in my area but I gotta believe that's pretty generous.
Sometime around 5 or 6 tomorrow morning should be the height of the storm for me.
Might be able to get through this without losing power.
Still have the threat of tornadoes though.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 10, 2017, 06:04:54 PM
Looks like she's inland for a while so the weakening trend will continue.
Latest wind forecast still calls for 50-60 in my area but I gotta believe that's pretty generous.
Sometime around 5 or 6 tomorrow morning should be the height of the storm for me.
Might be able to get through this without losing power.
Still have the threat of tornadoes though.

Yeow! Lookout, the TW's are popping up all over, upwind of Ocala.
The Key West radar is kaput too.

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Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 10, 2017, 06:19:56 PM
Lost power at 2pm :(
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 10, 2017, 07:12:59 PM
The Naples NOAA Gulf pier station caught the passage of Hurricane Irma's eye.
Nice wind shift and fade. Preceded by the tidal surge, shelf wave, which has gone to almost 8 feet so far from the preceding drawdown. Even an effect on the water temp (not shown).
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8725110 (https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/stationhome.html?id=8725110)

Winds
41.21kn.
from W
as of 09/10/2017 18:48 LST/LDT
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Water Levels
6.7ft.
above MLLW
as of 09/10/2017 18:48 LST/LDT
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Air Pressure
965.9
millibars
as of 09/10/2017 18:48 LST/LDT
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WTNT61 KNHC 102155
TCUAT1
Hurricane Irma Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL112017
600 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017
...600 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
...WATER LEVELS RAPIDLY RISING IN NAPLES...
A wind gust of 142 mph (229 km/h) was recently reported at the Naples Municipal Airport.
A NOAA tide gauge in Naples just measured a water level of 2.2 feet above Mean Higher High Water, which is a 7 foot increase over the past hour and a half.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: CW2274 on September 10, 2017, 07:20:21 PM
Looks like she's inland for a while so the weakening trend will continue.
Latest wind forecast still calls for 50-60 in my area but I gotta believe that's pretty generous.
Sometime around 5 or 6 tomorrow morning should be the height of the storm for me.
Might be able to get through this without losing power.
Still have the threat of tornadoes though.
Yeow! Lookout, the TW's are popping up all over, upwind of Ocala.
The Key West radar is kaput too.
Typical of land falling tropical systems. Fortunately they're almost always EF0's and 1's.
I was wondering if Key West radar would survive, the eye passed over or very close to it. Couldn't stay awake last night long enough to see.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 10, 2017, 07:31:14 PM
Looks like she's inland for a while so the weakening trend will continue.
Latest wind forecast still calls for 50-60 in my area but I gotta believe that's pretty generous.
Sometime around 5 or 6 tomorrow morning should be the height of the storm for me.
Might be able to get through this without losing power.
Still have the threat of tornadoes though.
Yeow! Lookout, the TW's are popping up all over, upwind of Ocala.
The Key West radar is kaput too.
Typical of land falling tropical systems. Fortunately they're almost always EF0's and 1's.
I was wondering if Key West radar would survive, the eye passed over or very close to it. Couldn't stay awake last night long enough to see.

The Key West radar didn't go down until quite a while after the eye passed, eye was almost to Marco I./Naples; so WTH, guess it caught something on the backside of Irma. The page normally has a "status" link to see a note about the condition, but it didn't appear on my KW radar screen window.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: BeaverMeadow on September 10, 2017, 07:38:48 PM
Observed sea levels at Naples Fl. It looks like the storm surge has peaked for that city:

https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/waterlevels.html?id=8725110
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 11, 2017, 10:58:07 AM
Winds speeds here in south central Alabama have slowly been increasing over the last two hours....from 6mph to 9mph...gusts have increased from 8mph to 20mph.  Predictions are for winds of around 35mph later today with gusts slightly higher.  Thankfully, Irma has had a lot of the wind knocked out of her...gonna be a wet, soggy and windy day for the rest of the southeast.   Looks like Georgia will get a good bit more rain than we will get here in 'Bama.   Best wishes to everybody down south that caught the worst of it and for those still getting strong tropical storm winds, hopefully things will get back to normal quickly.  Folks in Georgia, be careful of high water areas and possibly limbs an powerlines down.

Ed
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: rdsman on September 11, 2017, 12:19:54 PM
Ed:

I'm northeast of you in Phenix City.  Plenty of rain here!  The worst of it is still on the way.....

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Glenn on September 11, 2017, 01:04:48 PM
Hang in there guys. Hope all goes well in your areas.

It was certainly good news that the storm lost a lot of steam down in FLA. It really looked like it was going to be a lost worse than it actually was.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 11, 2017, 02:19:40 PM
rdsman, I've got a sister over in Columbus that I've been keeping trying to keep updated so much similar weather as to what you're having and will have.  It looks like the rain down here as "set in" for a spell.  I've gotta check on three locations and then back to the house to dry out.  I've been watching the weather trends on my website ( http://www.beeweather.com/wxtrends.php ) and for the last 2 hours the wind has stabilized at around 10mph.  Barometer is dropping slowly...29.707 down to 29.64 in the last two hours.  Getting a steady, light rain...0.35" per hour rate.  Should increase a bit later on.

Glenn, yes, a good thing the storm has weakened.  Looks like Jacksonville got caught by surprise with the flooding that they're getting.  Saw some spots in far south Florida, Naples area, a little from Key West, etc.,....looks like a lot of people got hit pretty hard, but could've been worse overall. 

We're hanging tight, but shouldn't be too bad (hopefully) in my area...
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: forecasterjack on September 11, 2017, 04:50:23 PM
Irma is slowly dying this evening. It's a beautiful sight to watch on GOES-16. Crazy to see the storm's cloud shield spreading from Mobile to Boston! Link to the satellite loop: https://blog.weather.us/irma-continues-north-through-georgia-will-dissipate-tomorrow/
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 11, 2017, 11:40:16 PM
Sheesh.  The wife and I were leaving to go pick up our youngest granddaughter.  I got in the car and glanced back towards the house.  What do I see?  A blasted 12" diameter pecan tree laying against the roof and service drop.<sigh>  Cut the rootball off and let it flop back down and sectioned the rest until it dropped from the wire.  A little damage to the edge of the metal roof, but we still have power.  Oh well,...
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Glenn on September 12, 2017, 08:04:31 AM
It certainly did cause some destruction on Northern FLA and when it left the state. Some serious flooding in areas outside of FLA.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jasiu on September 12, 2017, 08:51:31 AM
Regarding underground electricity wires... Just saw a report from Miami where a neighborhood lost power because the roots from the toppled trees ripped up the underground wires there.  So while it would help in many (most?) situations, it isn't foolproof.

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 13, 2017, 07:35:05 AM
House survived as did my weather station. Just a little damage on my house but others in the neighborhood didn't far as well. I have no power so can't extract data from the logger. Should be interesting to see what it holds since the eye passed maybe 30 miles away at most. Will post info once I'm able to get the data.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 13, 2017, 09:02:48 AM
Regarding underground electricity wires... Just saw a report from Miami where a neighborhood lost power because the roots from the toppled trees ripped up the underground wires there.  So while it would help in many (most?) situations, it isn't foolproof.



And EACH outage of that type would be more expensive and time consuming to fix. 
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Jstx on September 13, 2017, 03:57:55 PM
Regarding underground electricity wires... Just saw a report from Miami where a neighborhood lost power because the roots from the toppled trees ripped up the underground wires there.  So while it would help in many (most?) situations, it isn't foolproof.



And EACH outage of that type would be more expensive and time consuming to fix.
Airborne/strung wires are VERY EASY to 'see' where the problems are; buried wires are NOT easy to 'see' and require special electrical "bridge" meters & equipment to "guess" where problems (shorts, opens, cross-connections) are located underground.

The telephone companies have always had very sensitive test equipment for locating almost all line and cable faults. From inside the central offices (CO's), local test desks (LTD's), remote TD's, and of course devices used by outside plant crews.
A full set of line tests are run on every originating and terminating telephone call for most possible line faults, completely transparent to the caller/callee. Mobile calls too, but far different types of tests.
Certain 'hard' faults will result in not completing the call, but other, more minor faults will just result in an internal report, and may or may not be noticed by the customer.
The CO's have both various manual test panels, and automated ones (ALIT). Old style bridge test circuits and newer forms of TDR's are used.
Even as the switches have almost all become digital, such devices are still needed for copper cables inside or out (whether telco or cable company). A different suite of similar tools are used for fiber optic and co-ax of course, but many of the same principles are used.

Many different types of TDR (time domain reflectometer) are used (have one in my workshop). They are even used with microwave waveguide.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-domain_reflectometer (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Time-domain_reflectometer)
The power companies also use similar equipment to locate faults.
They all can work on active cable and lines.

Of course, like all tech stuff, success depends on the skill of those using it.
The equipment will locate the fault, and it's distance, pretty accurately, but some factors can throw that off a little. No "guessing" involved, if there is a question before digging, some other test equipment can pinpoint the location.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 13, 2017, 06:39:59 PM
I was able to extract data but some bad news. It appears there was some water egress and the ISS stopped reporting. It started again about 20 hours later but now the anemometer and wind direction is no longer reporting correctly. Only getting 1-5mph readings since it came back online. What I did see is that was a we had a 70mph gust before it stopped reporting.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 13, 2017, 07:18:49 PM
House survived as did my weather station. Just a little damage on my house but others in the neighborhood didn't far as well. I have no power so can't extract data from the logger. Should be interesting to see what it holds since the eye passed maybe 30 miles away at most. Will post info once I'm able to get the data.
Great to hear that the house wasn't damaged too bad.
Too bad about the weather data though. That sucks.
Only had a 35 mph gust here but I'm surrounded by trees so I didn't expect much more. Although I know they were higher. Leesburg Airport to my SE had a gust to 69.
Lowest pressure  at my station was 28.95.
All in all a pretty good storm. I woke up about 1:30 Monday morning and it was a pretty good show. Power went out about 4:30, just came back on last night. No real damage other then 1 big tree down and a crap load of branches and limbs.
Still many people without power up here. I'm one of the fortunate ones.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: WeatherHost on September 13, 2017, 07:24:00 PM
No "guessing" involved, if there is a question before digging, some other test equipment can pinpoint the location.

But there's still digging.  If 1,000 feet of wire is down or torn up but fallen or uprooted trees, which is going to get service restored first:

A boom truck stringing cable between poles and making splices in air.

A backhoe that has to dig up every foot, watching for anything else buried, then having to fill the trench back in.

-----------

I know the concept is that buried cables are less prone to damage and the need for repair or replacement.  But that simply isn't reality.  In severe weather, the argument can be made that less buried cable will be damaged than overhead cable.  However, every foot that is damaged will take longer to find and restore to service.

Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 13, 2017, 10:06:07 PM
Lowest pressure  at my station was 28.95.

Mine was 28.705 and dropping when it stopped reporting.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 14, 2017, 09:00:48 AM
95 miles inland, north of Destin, Florida, our high gust was 35mph with 1.45" of rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Stratocaster on September 14, 2017, 09:43:33 AM
Here in Nassau, Bahamas, it was almost a non-event. Peak winds of 35 mph, 0.7" of rain.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: hankster on September 14, 2017, 03:52:39 PM
I have a correction. Just looked at WU and I see the figures are a bit different than what I seen in my WD logs, but I might have missed that since I was pretty whipped from all the travel when I looked at them. WU shows an 84 MPH wind gust at 6:14 when the anemometer stopped reporting and and 28.11 barometer at 7:00pm. Rain was 5.11" but I'm sure sure that isn't correct. With the wind speed and the shaking of the pole mount in those winds it could be just about anything. Didn't start saving data again until 8am the next morning.

I'll have to take a closer look at the log files when I get a chance.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: ocala on September 14, 2017, 04:41:13 PM
No "guessing" involved, if there is a question before digging, some other test equipment can pinpoint the location.

But there's still digging.  If 1,000 feet of wire is down or torn up but fallen or uprooted trees, which is going to get service restored first:

A boom truck stringing cable between poles and making splices in air.

A backhoe that has to dig up every foot, watching for anything else buried, then having to fill the trench back in.

-----------

I know the concept is that buried cables are less prone to damage and the need for repair or replacement.  But that simply isn't reality.  In severe weather, the argument can be made that less buried cable will be damaged than overhead cable.  However, every foot that is damaged will take longer to find and restore to service.
Just guessing here but I assume when they bury cables they would bury them pretty deep to avoid the above scenario. Short of a long tap root from a pine tree most roots don't run that deep. Also, again just guessing here, I would think that they would be a good distance from said trees.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 18, 2017, 08:24:59 AM
Several years ago the telco went through the procedure of burying drops going to peoples houses.  Living in a rural area we were familiar with a couple of overhead wires coming to our house.  Well, when the dug a trench up through my yard that left a nasty scar...I wasn't overjoyed.  Then, about a year or two later they decided that wire wasn't good enough (phone service was fine) so they trenched another one in through my yard.  Again, I'm not a happy camper.  Well, a couple more years later and they *again* decided they needed to bury a new wire coming to the house.  I told them they could bury one but not through my yard, they could move just over the fence into the pasture that was right beside my driveway.  I told them the pasture might one day be plowed or otherwise disturbed and they assured me that they would put it deep enough to circumvent that issue.  They wanted the lines underground for wind and lightning damage prevention.  They also, at that time, changed my phone box from one side of the house to the other to be able to ground it to the house ground.  So, after burying the wire through the pasture what do they do?  They run it up the lightpole sitting about 50' from my house and run it over head to the new interface box.  :-|  Anyhow, to get to the point...so far we haven't had any issues with the buried cable coming to the house through the pasture.  We just had a major brush clearing done that pushed up that old fence (and associated privet hedge) and had a small turn-out bladed across the wire path close to the short metal pole that is close to the highway and we had no issues with the cable.  No problems with the buried cable.  I figure most of them are probably 3' deep or more.  Speaking of tree roots, though, I may find out one day...I've got several aging pecan trees and a few oaks lining that old fence that if they get blown over just might be close enough to the cable to create an issue.  I would imagine, though, that main supply lines running beside the highway would indeed be clear of trees for an appreciable distance.  The power company requires a ROW for buried cable...I'm just not sure if it's a wide as for overhead lines.  I discussed running power down to a spot in the swamp several years ago with the power company.  They would have ran it down the middle of the small road going down there...the road is 10' wide *between* pine trees so in some places that would only leave 5' either side of the cable before they ran into an actual tree *trunk*...they said they could do it.  But, that's not a main line servicing multiple neighborhoods. 
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 18, 2017, 08:26:52 AM
Btw, as I stated earlier, we got 1.45" of rain from Irma.  This past Saturday, when we had a small amount of rain predicted (maybe .25"?) we got 2.03".  Go figure, eh?  #-o
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: rdsman on September 18, 2017, 10:23:08 AM
I was in the direct path of Irma until if fizzled out just a few miles southeast of me.  While it seemed that it rained here for at least 24 hours, I only measured 2.11 inches of rain.  Perhaps due to the fact that the rain was blowing sideways for the majority of the time.  Maybe I needed an "elbow" to divert the rain?

Intheswamp:

How did your sister make out?
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: Intheswamp on September 18, 2017, 05:12:42 PM
She managed to make it to Panera Bread so she was happy.<grin>  Lots of rain and a some wind for her...probably more rain than I got.
Title: Re: Hurricane IRMA
Post by: HARRY2018 on November 05, 2017, 06:39:36 PM
HARRY2018/

                  I Have an uncle who lives in Puerto Rico, but had to evacuate because of Hurrican Maria which was a category 4 hurricane

                  and totally devastated the island, he left along with his wife and now reside in Mass. he is 95yrs old is my last surviving

                  Uncle. I will continue to pray for him along with his wife, along for his safety and Health.