Author Topic: The ENSO Shift & Cane Season 2011  (Read 4183 times)

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Offline skysummit

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The ENSO Shift & Cane Season 2011
« on: February 16, 2011, 09:17:24 AM »
Models indicate the La Nina is weakening and should be completely gone by June of this year.  Only 2 models say we'll drop to El Nino phase this summer with the rest either with the rest either staying La Nina or neutral.  Also, long range EURO guidance indicates lower pressures over the southwestern and central U.S. this summer.  IF that's the case, the southern U.S. may not have as good of a blocking high pressure this hurricane season compared to last.  
« Last Edit: February 25, 2011, 03:32:04 PM by skysummit »
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Offline ocala

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Re: The ENSO Shift
« Reply #1 on: February 16, 2011, 11:45:57 AM »
That hurricane shield has been up for a while.
 I sure wish we could fast forward to June. We are getting into that crappy time of year when it's 70 and sunny everyday. :-(
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline skysummit

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Re: The ENSO Shift
« Reply #2 on: February 25, 2011, 03:31:30 PM »
If anyone is paying attention to long range tropics, the extended range ECMWF has been released and is out to August. It shows lower pressures across the midwest and along the east coast.  If this pattern becomes a reality, we'll see a greater risk of landfalling storms from the entire northern gulfcoast, Florida, and up the east coast.

Anything that developed out to sea would likely recurve, however systems that develop in the Caribbean would have a greater chance to directly impact the U.S.

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Offline ocala

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Re: The ENSO Shift & Cane Season 2011
« Reply #3 on: February 25, 2011, 04:06:21 PM »
I try not to get too caught up in these forecasts. After all they are just projections and there are so many unknowns that their validity really comes into question. At least for me.
Don't get wrong. I'm fired up just like you but it's tempered in that we just don't know.
When Dr Gray puts out his forecast I usually don't even look because in a couple months he's just going to adjust it again.
Man, 3 months to go. That's just too long. :-(
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline skysummit

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Re: The ENSO Shift & Cane Season 2011
« Reply #4 on: February 25, 2011, 04:26:04 PM »
I'm not yea fired up....just beginning to get into the tropical groove :)   I just enjoy looking at the long range stuff now and then, but also try and take things with a grain of salt while at the same time, trying to compare to what things looked like in the long range prior to the 2010 season.

For instance, the long range CFS model indicated persistent east coast troughing which actually turned out to be the case for much of the 2010 season.  We had an active season, but just about everything remained out to sea.  This time around, the long range CFS is indicating a stronger than normal Bermuda Ridge along with the same midwest weakness that the EURO is showing.  So two long range models indicate a more dangerous pattern than last season.

NOW....it's going to be interesting to see just how well these models perform this far out.  We're still soooooo far away.

That's what I like to look at...patterns.  I simply ignore all those preseason numbers forecasts.
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Offline xykotik

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Re: The ENSO Shift
« Reply #5 on: February 25, 2011, 04:31:39 PM »
... We are getting into that crappy time of year when it's 70 and sunny everyday. :-(

Around these parts, we call that "July." :P


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline xykotik

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Re: The ENSO Shift & Cane Season 2011
« Reply #6 on: February 25, 2011, 04:38:33 PM »
Ocala,

I keep forgetting to ask if you are related to Bucky McBadbat.


Facit solem suum oriri super bonos et malos et pluit super iustos et iniustos.

Springtime in Seattle...  March comes in like a lion and out like a wet lion.

Offline ocala

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Re: The ENSO Shift & Cane Season 2011
« Reply #7 on: February 25, 2011, 05:12:44 PM »
Ocala,

I keep forgetting to ask if you are related to Bucky McBadbat.
:grin:
Nah, no relation. Just a very disgruntled Browns fan. There may be a light at the end of the tunnel though. [-o<
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline SlowModem

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Re: The ENSO Shift
« Reply #8 on: February 25, 2011, 06:00:11 PM »
We are getting into that crappy time of year when it's 70 and sunny everyday. :-(

If it was like that here 365 days a year I'd be tickled to death!   =D>

(well, maybe a little shower around 2 am every morning for the garden)

Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

Offline skysummit

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Re: The ENSO Shift & Cane Season 2011
« Reply #9 on: February 27, 2011, 09:38:26 PM »
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