I'm not yea fired up....just beginning to get into the tropical groove
I just enjoy looking at the long range stuff now and then, but also try and take things with a grain of salt while at the same time, trying to compare to what things looked like in the long range prior to the 2010 season.
For instance, the long range CFS model indicated persistent east coast troughing which actually turned out to be the case for much of the 2010 season. We had an active season, but just about everything remained out to sea. This time around, the long range CFS is indicating a stronger than normal Bermuda Ridge along with the same midwest weakness that the EURO is showing. So two long range models indicate a more dangerous pattern than last season.
NOW....it's going to be interesting to see just how well these models perform this far out. We're still soooooo far away.
That's what I like to look at...patterns. I simply ignore all those preseason numbers forecasts.