Author Topic: 09-10 Winter Forecast (Read 11765 times)

SlowModem · « **on:** July 25, 2009, 12:49:55 PM »

From the "For What It's Worth" Department. I saw this on another forum and thought I'd pass it along:

sam2004gp · « **Reply #1 on:** July 25, 2009, 12:53:45 PM »

Hmm, I am in the "Cold and Snowy" area. We did not get much last year, so maybe this next time around.

WeatherHost · « **Reply #2 on:** July 25, 2009, 02:28:42 PM »

The Climate Prediction Center was so far off last year, I'm not sure I trust these anymore.

We've been in this pattern since about October - the big dips bringing cold stormy systems every week to ten days. Made for a bitter winter including the Ice Storm, and now a cool, wet spring and summer. I need this pattern to break down and give us a normal winter; mild temps, little snow and ice. We've had two ice storms in two years plus several wind events. Our trees can't take much more. Another ice storm would be unthinkable.

Bunty · « **Reply #3 on:** July 26, 2009, 02:25:53 AM »

Anyway, nice to see less cold and snow for my part of Oklahoma and last winter wasn't all that bad. But we had one tornado warning last Feb. So might as well hope for no more off season tornados than last year.

killwilly · « **Reply #4 on:** July 26, 2009, 03:54:14 AM »

How can anyone accurately forecast next winter's weather in July?

Alan

blackjack52 · « **Reply #5 on:** July 26, 2009, 12:32:09 PM »

An increase in Sunspot activity can change that.

sam2004gp · « **Reply #6 on:** July 26, 2009, 03:27:55 PM »

This is true...

port1 · « **Reply #7 on:** July 26, 2009, 04:50:54 PM »

I'm in the "Cold and Snowy" section too.
Luckily, the snowblower is tuned up.
I'll be ready.
Don't mind the snow, as long as the street plows don't block me in at the end of my driveway.
That's not fun...usually iced up and heavy, packed snow.

Henry

futureweatherman12 · « **Reply #8 on:** July 26, 2009, 11:15:42 PM »

Quote from: WeatherHost on July 25, 2009, 02:28:42 PM

The Climate Prediction Center was so far off last year, I'm not sure I trust these anymore.

We've been in this pattern since about October - the big dips bringing cold stormy systems every week to ten days. Made for a bitter winter including the Ice Storm, and now a cool, wet spring and summer. I need this pattern to break down and give us a normal winter; mild temps, little snow and ice. We've had two ice storms in two years plus several wind events. Our trees can't take much more. Another ice storm would be unthinkable.

This wasn't by the CPC, the CPC has a 30% chance for warm where the Less Snowy and Cold. This Map was made by Joe Bastardi and Henry Margusuity of Accuweather.

Anyways, This winter, as mentioned in other forums, is going to come down a lot of things, but some of the more important will be:

ENSO conditions: Strong El Nino would be terrible for snow lovers anywhere in the Eastern side of the US.
-If the PDO can keep cooling down the Pacific, that would limit the chance for a strong El Nino. Also, It depends where the El Nino develops. If it develops in the Eastern Pac., that would not set up a good pattern for the East Coast. Also, the strenght of the Atlantic Trough throughout the Winter.

That's all I have for now, hopefully I'll be back posting again.

Aardvark · « **Reply #9 on:** July 27, 2009, 01:12:04 AM »

I guess I won't need as much ice melt and mutton next winter...

kray1000 · « **Reply #10 on:** July 27, 2009, 03:20:52 AM »

Quote from: port1 on July 26, 2009, 04:50:54 PM

I'm in the "Cold and Snowy" section too.
Luckily, the snowblower is tuned up.

I'm "Cold and Snowy" too.

I have a snowblower, but I don't think it's been started since '96...1996 I think. Not sure if it will even start.

I think I'll wait for the next 96-degree day, then I'll test-drive it on my driveway until the smoke clears.

WeatherHost · « **Reply #11 on:** July 27, 2009, 05:50:31 AM »

By contrast, here are the CPC maps for Dec/Jan/Feb '09 - '10

jrabbott1 · « **Reply #12 on:** August 03, 2009, 02:43:33 PM »

Doesn't the CPC always forecast that it'll be warmer everywhere thanks to global warming?

Aardvark · « **Reply #13 on:** August 03, 2009, 04:18:06 PM »

what sucked last winter, we had a lot of sleet to start the season out, it never melted so we had snow on top of ice. walking through the snow was dangerous as the snow melted down on the ice, froze.. you get the picture.

We also had a lot of winter kill on fruit trees. I lost on peach tree completely and the other two had a lot of winter kill. A third tree has no fruit as many of the branches had to be removed as well. Of course that tree is a bit odd.. I am giving it one more season and then it goes to the saw .

However, if in Iowa we would have a mild winter with no ice accumulation for any length of time that would be fine with me. Where to I fill in my request?

port1 · « **Reply #14 on:** August 03, 2009, 07:00:21 PM »

Quote from: Aardvark on August 03, 2009, 04:18:06 PM

what sucked last winter, we had a lot of sleet to start the season out, it never melted so we had snow on top of ice. walking through the snow was dangerous as the snow melted down on the ice, froze.. you get the picture.

We also had a lot of winter kill on fruit trees. I lost on peach tree completely and the other two had a lot of winter kill. A third tree has no fruit as many of the branches had to be removed as well. Of course that tree is a bit odd.. I am giving it one more season and then it goes to the saw .

However, if in Iowa we would have a mild winter with no ice accumulation for any length of time that would be fine with me. Where to I fill in my request?

I had plenty of starter peaches this year, but the lousy squirrels ate every one of them! Vermin...
Didn't even have a chance to ripen.
Those squirrels have become a real problem here in my village.
No natural predators.
Where are those red-tail hawks?

Henry

Aardvark · « **Reply #15 on:** August 03, 2009, 08:08:15 PM »

I bought 4 large Havahart Traps. baited them with seed corn with a smear of peanut butter on them. When I get one of them, I take them to a local park and turn them loose. Recently, however, I have taken them to the local synagogue. I figure they could substitute for congregants.

I have also caught a possum, rabbit (let it go, my garden is for crap also),a bird. Last year I got the neighbor's dog and a raccoon. However, I do get the squirrels before three more take over. it is a battle, but if you can't shoot or poison them, then the squirrel relocation program works for me.

Heaven help me if they all figure out how to get back home.. what is that chewing sound?

SlowModem · « **Reply #16 on:** August 03, 2009, 09:37:42 PM »

I have a 10-foot chicken wire and deer netting fence around my garden. I had a ground hog that managed to dig under the fence and eat nearly all my cabbage, broccoli and califlower plants this past spring. I have a 22 pistol I was going to use, but our schedules never seemed to match. I went to Tractor Supply Store and bought a trap set (big and small trap) for $35. Got him a day or two after setting the trap. Hopefully, when I plant the fall garden in a week or two, it will do much better than the spring garden did.

Have you ever noticed how the rabbits/groundhogs/squirrels/etc only eat the good stuff and leave the weeds alone? Why is that?

W3DRM · « **Reply #17 on:** August 03, 2009, 11:11:24 PM »

Folks around here who put in vegetable gardens have to put down 1/4" or 1/2" wire mesh under all of their raised gardens and surrounding fencing just to keep out the ground squirrels, chipmunks and other varmints that live in the area. Regular in-ground gardens are almost impossible to maintain. I am constantly fighting the squirrels to keep them out of my tomato plants which are in half barrels. The critters still find a way to get in. Next year, my wife wants me to plant a real vegetable garden and I'm not looking forward to it...

Skier · « **Reply #18 on:** August 06, 2009, 10:25:51 AM »

Hi, I´m from Slovakia and i work in SkyWarn Czechoslovakia. I have a one question. Do you know any winter 09-10 forecast for Europe? THX.

Downlinerz2 · « **Reply #19 on:** August 06, 2009, 11:17:44 PM »

When I looked at this winters forecast you cannot imagine my suprise,shock and amazement!

Who would ever have thought that it would be "COLD" in northern Ohio in the Winter!!! These guys have really gone out on a limb this time

. I guess I will have to take the swim fins and snorkels back to the store for a refund. What would we do without them (the weather guys not the fins and snorkels)

Mark / Ohio · « **Reply #20 on:** August 07, 2009, 12:08:45 AM »

Quote from: Skier on August 06, 2009, 10:25:51 AM

Hi, I´m from Slovakia and i work in SkyWarn Czechoslovakia. I have a one question. Do you know any winter 09-10 forecast for Europe? THX.

So far this is all that I have found for current seasonal forecasts for Europe:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/forecast/net_asmt/

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/weather/world/seasonal/index.html

Jiles111 · « **Reply #21 on:** August 07, 2009, 11:04:45 PM »

Quote from: port1 on August 03, 2009, 07:00:21 PM

Quote from: Aardvark on August 03, 2009, 04:18:06 PM
what sucked last winter, we had a lot of sleet to start the season out, it never melted so we had snow on top of ice. walking through the snow was dangerous as the snow melted down on the ice, froze.. you get the picture.

We also had a lot of winter kill on fruit trees. I lost on peach tree completely and the other two had a lot of winter kill. A third tree has no fruit as many of the branches had to be removed as well. Of course that tree is a bit odd.. I am giving it one more season and then it goes to the saw .

However, if in Iowa we would have a mild winter with no ice accumulation for any length of time that would be fine with me. Where to I fill in my request?

I had plenty of starter peaches this year, but the lousy squirrels ate every one of them! Vermin...
Didn't even have a chance to ripen.
Those squirrels have become a real problem here in my village.
No natural predators.
Where are those red-tail hawks?

Henry
[/quote

I think they are on the backs of those 22 caliber shells....

News:

Author Topic: 09-10 Winter Forecast (Read 11765 times)

blackjack52