Oh so THIS is the thread that got me that really ugly private message. (I am 30 years old by the way, not sixteen or less...and I have studied meteorology and severe weather in one form or another for the last 25 years.)
Now, for the torcon and all other indicators of this nature, if onoeric had bothered to actually UNDERSTAND what I said about the torcon index he would see where I find flaws in it and why I do not like it.
But, let me break this down further. The idea behind it is good in theory. You are giving people a heads up on tornado possibilities and that's a good thing...in theory. However, as I said, people are inherently stupid when it comes to the weather. I have no problem saying that again because it is generally true.
Perhaps "ignorant" is a better way to put it, but the bottom line is 75% of the general public understands the weather only in its most basic forms. They want to hear good news when it comes to the weather. They do not want to be bothered with the weather. They want to know that it is not going to do anything that will interfere with their favorite television programs or their sleep patterns. Therefore, if they get even a hint that a meteorologist has said it is not going to do anything, then most people will grasp onto that for all it is worth and ignore everything else that the weather man tells them.
When it comes to tornado index values that more and more meteorologists are using these days, you are giving people way too much rope to hang themselves with. If someone says "there is a 4 out of 10 chance" then you are basically telling them that there is a 60% chance tornadoes will not happen. That is what they will run with.
If there is even a 1 out of 10 chance then it needs to be taken deathly serious because even a single tornado can take a person's life, and that is not a chance people need to be putting percentages on. The best case of action when it comes to forecasting severe weather is to always say "there is also a chance we could see some tornadoes, so it is best to keep your guard up." Always better safe than sorry.
And more and more I am seeing where meteorologists are having to say "ignore those ratings" because as the blasted rating is on the screen, you hear the meteorologist say "we see the hook echo plain as day" or "we have confirmed reports from law enforcement of damage in that vicinity."
That is why I am against index values of that nature. I am not stupid. I am not ignorant. I do understand perfectly well how they operate and what they mean. And I also understand that people have to have severe weather reports put right in front of them in blunt language so they understand these are not storms to be trifled with in any fashion.
"There is a 4 out of 10 chance of tornadoes in a 50 mile radius" doesn't sound that threatening to most people.
"There is a fairly good chance that folks in the forecast area could see a few tornadoes" gets the point across a LOT better.
