Topic: Thoughs On Hurricane Season 2010...What are yours?

[skysummit]

Most long term forecasts are again calling for an above normal tropical Atlantic hurricane season, but I really don't put much faith into these forecasts.  However, there are certain things to look for when thinking about it approaching so quickly.  As you can see below, most ENSO models forecast we get back to Neutral by the peak of the season....maybe before.  This will cause lower wind shear across the entire Atlantic Basin, especially in the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean.  Looking at current Pacific SST anomalies, El Nino is already weakening.  Also, the SSTs in the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are much warmer for this time of the year compared to last year.  Most temps across the Caribbean are still near 80 degrees. which should allow its heat content to recuperate rather quickly.  The Gulf is pretty chilly, but it doesn't take long for the Gulf to warm up.

In Louisiana, the old timers like to look at winter and put that toward Hurricane Season.  90% of the time south Louisiana gets snow in the winter, Louisiana gets hit by a hurricane.  Betsy, Camille, Andrew, Katrina, Gustav (I'm not sure about Audrey).  This winter, south Louisiana has gotten two measurable snowfalls in a 3 month period with maybe one or two more chances before we get to spring.  So the old timers are going nuts 

It's going to be interesting to see how everything plays out, but I think 2010 will not be as quiet as 2009.  However, I don't think we'll reach the numbers of 2005.  That was just insane.  If we do, it's time to move to another planet.

My thinking.....

Tropical Storms 19
Hurricanes 11
Major Hurricanes 5

Current ENSO Models pointing toward a neutral peak of the season:




SST Anomalies this time last year:




SST Anomalies currently:




SST Anomalies of the Pacific showing a weakening El Nino:

[skysummit]

Well, a quite sobering discussion here by Joe Bastardi.  Personally, I've never been a "fan" of J.B., however I do have to hand it to him.  He nailed last hurricane season and has pretty much nailed this winter.  Hopefully he's wrong about the upcoming hurricane season.....

This post sort of backs up a little of what I've posted above.

THURSDAY 7 AM
A HURRICANE SEASON PRELIM:


(first issued Monday to private interests)


My forecast will raise eyebrows, as I believe a major landfalling season is on the way, and certainly one that will cause much more disruption to energy interests and higher insurance costs. The current El Nino WILL NOT continue into the hurricane season, and the moistening of the atmosphere over the tropics that has occurred during the Nino will mean worldwide there will be more activity. For the Atlantic Basin, this has the chance to be an extreme season, certainly much greater than last season.

There are two main physical drivers here that have me very concerned.

1) The aforementioned El Nino means that humidity levels will be higher over the deep tropics this year. My research has shown that when El Ninos are coming on, very often there is plenty of dry air in the deep tropics over the Atlantic beforehand. We saw that in '06 and '09 and it led to lesser numbers. I caught it in '09 much better than '06, but the reason has to do with the state of the atmosphere beforehand, because not all El Ninos produce non-seasons ('04 and '69 for example, big seasons with El Ninos). The collapse of the Nino very often is signaled by the opposite and a preliminary look indicates a much more friendly humidity pattern is evolving! This would not be as big a concern, though of some concern, if the El Nino did not wane, or a strong La Nina developed. I do not see a strong La Nina for this season (that has the effect of keeping storms farther south). And it would not have the weight it has if it was not for what has happened in the Atlantic with the water temps! 2) It is opposite of what I was looking at last year. The warm water is south of 30 north, and there is colder water in the central Atlantic. This focuses upward motion over the tropical breeding grounds. The European is already seeing this, as it's carrying a reversal to higher-than-normal pressures in the tropical Pacific and lower-than-normal pressures in the very areas that we used as a way of downplaying last year.

I need to watch the pressures in the Atlantic in the month of May, and some of the other tools I use, but if they go as I suspect, a spray year with above-normal threats on ALL THE U.S. COAST, perhaps similar to 2008, is on the way. In fact, it is very disturbing to note that in the package are years such as 1995, 2005 and 1964. This is a preliminary look, but a heads up to all of you. Keep in mind that it was me last March who touted the down year and said the Nino was coming on. It was me who circled the area hammered the year before and said there would be very little activity. I don't want to here the HYPE HYPE HYPE crowd scream because last year was dead on, and the year before was even more than the nasty season advertised. It is what it is...

My long standing fear for the East Coast remains as the cooling Pacific and the still warm overall Atlantic is the overall setup that enhances East Coast activity as we saw in the last attack of the hurricanes on the East Coast, mainly in the '50s. I believe, in spite of storms of tropical origin and the damage they caused last year on the East Coast, most notably the Jersey Devil and the ghost of Ida, the East Coast has fared very well in this time of hurricane hardship. I do believe we are in the waning years of this current uptick in the Atlantic, perhaps another 5 to at most 10, before rationality returns to the Atlantic Basin. Given naming techniques and satellites, it will never be as low as it was, but will be what it would have been in the '60s and '70s if we had the same namers as we have now.

Our forecasts have spoken for themselves over the years. I think we all saw the lesser number and shift northeast in the threat area last year, the big season forecast the year before. The errors in '07 and '06 were more letter than spirit of the law. The La Nina got very strong in '07, and what activity there was in '06 was to the northeast of the mega season of '05. Since the La Nina is not expected to be strong this year, the stage is set, for the reasons given above, for a more active season and one that will have more than normal impact on the U.S. coast against the running 20 year means.

Since I don't want to get into the TPC name game out in the middle of nowhere, the forecast as of now calls for 15 total storms west of 55 west. Crucial landfall ideas: seven landfalls, five hurricanes, two or three major landfalls. This is the kind of season that has me worried about Florida as a center point, and from this stage, areas north and west also, but with the center of the congregation of landfalling tracks near Florida.

The big thing to take from this... As of this writing, we are in for a very different season from last year. Collapsing Ninos with warm Atlantic water and lower-than-normal pressures in the southwestern Atlantic Basin during the summer are not to be taken lightly!

The global warming crowd, reduced to blaming the snow on global warming this year after blaming lack of snow on it in previous years, will be able to proudly point to the hurricanes this year, and so the debate will rage on. Something for all of us to look forward to, eh?

Ciao for now. ******

[WeatherGoose]

El Nino years tend to be nastier for hurricane activity than in non El Nino or La Nina years.  As the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic warms, you are going to see more evaporation, and with that will come more "fuel" for hurricanes to feed off of.

More concerning will be the gradual rise of sea levels over the coming decades.  Couple that with these stronger storms and you have a recipe for some serious disasters in the future.  If I lived on the Florida and Louisiana coasts, I would seriously consider relocating.  Things are only going to get worse from here on out.

[MSGulfCoast]

I can say i am expecting a "MONSTER" season! 

[MSGulfCoast]

I think this season will be just as active or even more active than the 2008 season!

My Prediction:

Named Storms- 21
Hurricanes- 12
Major Hurricanes- 6-8

The Gulf will be the main target!

[MSGulfCoast]

Hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, with the AccuWeather.com Hurricane Center, said Wednesday that he predicts seven landfalls. Five will be hurricanes and two or three of the hurricanes will be major landfalls for the U.S.

Bastardi forecasts 16 to 18 tropical storms in total, 15 of which will likely be in the western Atlantic or Gulf of Mexico.   

http://www.usatoday.com/weather/storms/hurricanes/2010-03-11-hurricane-season_N.htm

[ocala]

21/12/-6-8 
Damn I hope not. That could seriously threaten  future insurance availability along the Gulf and Atlantic coast states.

[WeatherHost]

I predict more than one and less than fifty.

[skysummit]

I can say i am expecting a "MONSTER" season! 

I can agree with you here.  It's pretty much impossible to find any reason that this season will not be one for the books.  Both European and Japanese models are agreeing on a neutral pattern by the start of cane season with possible weak La Nina by the peak.  One extra factor figure in now besides all the usual, is long range guidance is now indicating much higher than normal moisture being present in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

[MSGulfCoast]

I can say i am expecting a "MONSTER" season! 

I can agree with you here.  It's pretty much impossible to find any reason that this season will not be one for the books.  Both European and Japanese models are agreeing on a neutral pattern by the start of cane season with possible weak La Nina by the peak.  One extra factor figure in now besides all the usual, is long range guidance is now indicating much higher than normal moisture being present in the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

Hey i found this on talkweather.com/forums...take a look and tell me what you think 

Buoy Point Analysis in MDR: more to come

Buoy 41041
Location: 14.357 N 46.008 W (14°21'24" N 46°0'30" W)
SST is 26.5C

In years past, first day it hit 26.5 after the winter minimum:

2006 05 06 16 00 91 5.4 6.6 1.79 8.33 6.10 999 1014.7 25.5 26.5 22.0 99.0 99.00

2007 06 05 17 00 80 6.5 7.8 1.74 8.33 5.07 999 1017.2 25.7 26.5 21.6 99.0 99.00

2008 07 01 16 50 73 6.2 7.2 1.63 7.14 5.11 999 1015.5 26.1 26.5 22.0 99.0 99.00

2009 06 26 13 50 66 5.4 6.5 1.78 7.69 5.36 999 1017.9 25.9 26.5 999.0 99.0 99.00

Average day June 9th (2005 data not available)

Quick update on 41041:

SST is 26.9

previous earliest to 26.9 2006 on May 12...Two months ahead of schedule...Man, I wish I had 2005 data!!!!!!!!!

Buoy 41040
Location: 14.477 N 53.008 W (14°28'38" N 53°0'28" W)
SST 27.4C (buoy actually hit 27.9 on light winds on Feb 27, but that is an outlier)

2006 05 20 19 00 78 6.5 7.7 1.93 6.67 5.40 999 1015.3 27.5 27.4 22.4 99.0 99.00

2007 05 26 20 00 82 7.9 9.2 1.83 6.67 5.18 999 1012.9 26.7 27.4 21.0 99.0 99.00

2008 07 03 15 50 61 4.7 5.8 1.48 6.67 5.13 999 1016.8 26.6 27.4 21.6 99.0 99.00

2009 06 02 17 50 88 5.6 7.3 1.69 7.69 5.50 999 1015.2 26.8 27.4 22.7 99.0 99.00

Average day June 5th (2005 data not available)

4140 is at 27.5

previous record earliest to 27.5 May 25th 2006....

[MSGulfCoast]

Also...  

Great Artical on this:

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/comment.html?entrynum=1444

quote

"SSTs in the Main Development Region (10°N to 20°N and 20°W to 85°W) were an eye-opening 1.02°C above average during February. This easily beats the previous record of 0.83°C set in 1998. SSTs in the Main Development Region are already warmer than they were during June of last year, which is pretty remarkable, considering February is usually the coldest month of the year for SSTs in the North Atlantic. The 1.02°C anomaly is the 6th highest monthly SST anomaly for the MDR on record. The only other months with higher anomalies all occurred during 2005 (April, May, June, July, and September 2005 had anomalies of 1.06°C - 1.23°C).

[skysummit]

Oh yea, without a doubt the SSTs in the MDR are above average.  Some of the SSTs are the warmest they've ever been.  Looking at all the factors, it's becoming quite sobering of what this upcoming season may hold.  Let's hope it's all preseason hype.

[MSGulfCoast]

Weekly Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly

They have week by week anomalies of 2005 - today! started January 2005!

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/sst/weekly-sst.php?year=2007&month=03&wed=7&submit_form=Submit&_submit_check=1#maps

[skysummit]

A couple of excellent posts were recently made on my forum.  I don't want to "steal" them so I'll just give the link.  They really highlight a few more reasons as to why this upcoming hurricane season looks to be extremely active....especially for the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean.

This entire thread is a good read, but the most recent information begins with this post:

http://www.gulfcoastwx.com/ipb/index.php?showtopic=8445&view=findpost&p=59589