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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Tropical Weather => Topic started by: vinesweather on February 21, 2013, 03:24:25 AM
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Should be interesting next week.
Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
IDW10800
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Western Australia
Tropical Cyclone Three Day Outlook for the Western Region
Issued at 1:19 pm WST on Thursday 21 February 2013
for the period until midnight WST Sunday 24 February 2013.
Existing Cyclones in the Western Region:
Nil.
Potential Cyclones:
A weak low [11U] is located in the monsoon trough near 13S 104E, about 460km
south of Christmas Island. The low is moving slowly westwards and may develop
into a tropical cyclone on Saturday or Sunday. This system is expected to pass
to the south of Cocos Island. A direct impact is not expected, but it may cause
squally winds and heavy rainfall over the weekend.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate
Sunday High
A low [10U] in the Northern Region near 11S 129E is slowly developing and is
expected to move into the Western Region during Friday or early Saturday. This
low may develop into a tropical cyclone late on Saturday or on Sunday. Next
week there is a significant risk that this system will become a severe tropical
cyclone and impact the Pilbara or West Kimberley. People in the Pilbara and
Kimberley are advised to stay up to date with weather forecasts and warnings.
There are no other significant lows and none are expected to develop over the
next three days.
Likelihood of this system being a tropical cyclone in the Western Region on:
Friday Low
Saturday Moderate
Sunday High
NOTES: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day.
Very Low: less than 5% Moderate: 20 to 50%
Low: 5% to 20% High: over 50%
The Western Region refers to the Indian Ocean between Longitudes 90-125E and
south of 10S.