Hi everyone, I'm far from sure that this is the right place to ask, but I Googled weather forum and here I am.
So I've been following the weather forecast for Rovaniemi, Finland on a daily basis since the end of last month, because I'll be visiting next month and I'm hoping for some snow.
I've been surfing mostly on Wunderground.com but also briefly had a look in some other sites.
They're having a very warm October(3 degrees Celsius above average), but that's not what I wanted to ask, as the reasons for that are perfectly clear.
I'm also not asking why a weather forecast is inaccurate, I know how hard that can be to achieve a good forecast.
However, I did notice a strange pattern. The 10 day forecast would generate average seasonal temperatures for 6-10 days ahead and then as we move to 5-7 days before a given date the temperatures would be revised upwards. 2-4 days before the date it would be revised even more significantly and then finally, the actual temperature is higher than the revised forecast.
To put it into real numbers, it was originally forecasted to drop below freezing and snow on October 2nd, and then on many days since, but it never happened, not even close. In fact, it got even warmer in the last few days and will get warmer tomorrow and on Tuesday. Then there's a cold spell in sight, but it gets "skimmed" by the hour until soon I believe there'll be nothing left. From this pattern I'm convinced the permanent snow there will be at least a month late.
So why is the inaccuracy always in a single direction?
I'll give another example from where I live in coastal Israel. Rain starts in the forecast as a LOT of rain. Heatwaves start as average temperatures.
One would expect the weather sites interest would be to give an accurate prediction for what would actually take place and not to rely solely on no longer relevant statistics from the past. That's what an almanac is for.
Honestly, a better strategy would be to take the average temperatures and add a few degrees
Thanks and sorry for the long post.