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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Tropical Weather => Topic started by: ocala on September 09, 2018, 06:43:27 AM
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Looking like mid Atlantic north. TPC says RI through tomorrow with the storm becoming a major by Monday night. You guys be safe up there.
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Well it isn't just Florence to be worried about. There are these other storms all line up on the Atlantic. Here in Florida looks like we might miss Florence but Isaac is showing a lower path and it is yet too soon to tell when it will turn North...but they always seem to turn North at some point. You would think living in Florida we would be ready for this and at least I know what to expect and how to prepare. But the more hurricanes I go through and come out unscathed from the more I fear my luck is running out. Dreadful.
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Heading this way. All the stores are worse than a Black Friday sale and are out of bottled water. Here is a good camera link if it stays sup:
http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/ (http://surfchex.com/cams/carolina-beach-web-cam/)
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Neat camera...It is a PTZ
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I think we should get outta the way of Florence. This thing looks like it will be a storm like we cannot imagine. If the track and intensity hold, we are going to have big problems. The stalling out is very scary to look at on the models.
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I think we should get outta the way of Florence. This thing looks like it will be a storm like we cannot imagine. If the track and intensity hold, we are going to have big problems. The stalling out is very scary to look at on the models.
And if the track holds true (models are getting really good at this now), you'll be in the NE quadrant of the storm too. I used to live just east of Henderson Dr. from you so I'm very familiar with the terrain. Even if you're up against the New River, I still thing you're too far inland to fear storm surge, but obviously torrential rain, flooding, wind damage, and power outages are almost certain if all comes to fruition.
If in doubt, get out.
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I think we need to see a little more data before pulling the trigger and running, but if it gets any closer than Wilmington, I think the best thing to do is evacuate. The stalling out and raining for more than a day will become dangerous. I am worried for everyone in SE NC with what we are being shown on these models at this time. I hope people are not taking this one lightly. It is still a long way out, and that is good at least.
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^^^ BTW, as I look at your "weathercloud" banner, I guess that's what it's called, it's displaying Zulu (GMT) time in case you're unaware.
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First storm since Floyd that has me worried (been in Wilmington since 1998)... as I described to someone else... "worried enough to think about buying a generator", "worried enough to find the safest spot in house for sleeping", because why oh why do they have to hit at night?? Re evacuating inland... think Fran and Hugo. I know people living in Hillsborough (Chapel Hill for reference) that were without power longer than coastal areas after Fran, Hugo blew thru to Charlotte... I'd rather be in my own house...
I'll brave Walmart later this morning... :lol: been making ice since Sat...
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Makes it worthwhile... just 5 min away thru "backend" of my neighborhood...intracoastal...
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...worried...
Make sure you have a permanent marker pen handy...
/s
Good luck if it tracks anywhere near you, these monsters are no fun.
Florence is progged to get trapped a short distance inland without much in the way of steering flow, with "beyond extreme" rainfall in a wide area.
Florence may be similar in behavior to Harvey last year, an initial devastating wind field on (first) landfall, then a lingering extreme rainfall event slightly inland.
On top of a potential Cat 4+ hurricane strike, there's this:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd (https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd)
... By the weekend into next week expect some of the energy within the overall mean trough to eject across southern Canada, just far enough north of the weakening Florence to leave the system in a region of weak steering flow. This may set up a potentially extreme rainfall event for portions of North Carolina and Virginia as the inflow off the warm Gulf Stream provides copious amounts of moisture.
...
Aside from the initial wind/wave hazards with a potentially major landfalling hurricane, the heavy rain and flooding threat will continue for several days due to the combination of rare events--stalled tropical system near the coast with inflow across the warm Gulf Stream at the Atlantic's warmest time of year.
Though NWP rainfall should not be taken literally, information is contained within the output and the rainfall signal is striking when taken in concert with the ensembles. The location of heavy/extreme rainfall will not be known until the short range, but the probability of it occurring in this scenario is high and the probability of it occurring over land continues to increase.
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Schools closed, county gov closing at noon tomorrow. The average of the spaghetti models is north of Wilmington for now.
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Don't get me wrong, this is a bad gal, but more sensationalism from the national media as I just heard Jay Gray from NBC news inform us that...
"Florence is visible from space" #-o :roll: ](*,)
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How much faith do we have in the AVNO model? It has been offshore for just about every run.
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Don't get me wrong, this is a bad gal, but more sensationalism from the national media as I just heard Jay Gray from NBC news inform us that...
"Florence is visible from space" #-o :roll: ](*,)
Ditto
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Now the beast is going to make a left turn! We don't know where either, Onslow landfall and then the left turn?
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Slow landfall brings lots of rain. Hope its not another Harvey.
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Valentine. We don't know where to go! The GFS and Euro have the thing hitting us and then going backwards and hitting Myrtle Beach and then going towards Greenville SC!
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Stay safe and don't get caught in traffic jam. In 2009 Ike wiped out Galveston, part of family living in Houston area got caught in traffic jam with millions trying to leave at once. They finally gave up after 5 hours and turned around.
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Kinda weird knowing that the mere one year old, multi-million dollar, four story beach home I just stayed in three short months ago on north Topsail Island may not even exist in a few days as Florence is progged at the moment to make landfall exactly there. Fifteen foot storm surge would devastate that beautiful island, and no doubt, just the beginning of what will follow further inland.
Like Randy says, if you're leaving, do it sooner than later....and I'd be prepared to not be back any time soon should the worst occur. Damn....
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Just saw the latest rainfall est., the entire SE coast of N.C. is expecting over 20 inches of rain. Flooding will surely contaminate potable water, hope those staying are bleaching their bathtubs, ect. and filling them with water to drink and cook with. I've done that once before and fortunately didn't need it, hopefully the same will apply here, but ain't lookin' good.
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I just read this on the NWS Wilmington forecast discussion page. They say "storm of a lifetime." That is serious talk. I hear estimates of 35 inches of rain possible. Possible tropical storm force winds coming into Tennessee (usually the storms die out over the mountains or turn north). This is going to be bad. Very bad. And there will probably be some people that try to ride it out and have to be rescued or recovered.
>This will likely be the storm of a lifetime for portions of the
Carolina coast, and that`s saying a lot given the impacts
we`ve seen from Hurricanes Diana, Hugo, Fran, Bonnie, Floyd,
and Matthew. I can`t emphasize enough the potential for
unbelievable damage from wind, storm surge, and inland flooding
with this storm.<
https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILM&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1 (https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=ILM&product=AFD&format=txt&version=1&glossary=1)
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Down to 110. Still a lot stronger than I'd want to face, but no where near what it was. Rain will be the biggest problem.
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Yesterday the Weather Channel sensationalism, had it ear marked as 'Storm of a lifetime'. Making this cat 2 storm strongest in at least 80 years?
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Time will tell. If the track pans out, the wind speed will be the least of the worries, particularly for those inland.
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I think the media is beginning to panic that this isn't going to be the Armageddon of hurricanes as they've been reporting. It'll be bad, but not the "end of life as we know it" calamity that they seem to have been promoting.
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It's a dangerous nasty storm no doubt. Especially if it stalls as expected with torrential rains.
What I was getting at about the Weather Channel, I'm just so tired of manufactured hysteria, sensationalism the public gets bombarded with now days. I hope eventually we get back to the good ol days we can actually believe what's being said. I don't know if we'll ever go back. I feel sorry for my grandkids growing up and being force fed gibberish.
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Looks like Diamond Shoals, off the coast of Cape Hatteras is getting the tallest waves right now....bouy reporting 23'.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/radial_search.php?storm=at1
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TWC just needs to be taken off the 'air' and forgotten.
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FWIW, the phrase "storm of a lifetime" originally came from NWS Wilmington (as noted upthread).
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Found a web cam from Myrtle Beach
https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd (https://www.earthcam.com/usa/southcarolina/myrtlebeach/?cam=myrtlebeach_hd)
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IMO, if storms keep TWC talking about weather instead of showing those stupid shows, it's OK with me. :)
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Howdy Greg! Looks like you may get some rain and a little wind yourself off of Florence. Hopefully this will be the gigantic storm that wasn't. ;)
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Down to 105. Still too high, but a whole toot less than the 140-150 they were initially showing.
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Looks like Florence is weakening significantly. Lots of dry air is being drawn in. Over-hyped to the max. Now on the other hand hurricane Camille in 1969........a true monster among many others to hit the US.
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Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Atmospheric science is obviously not a perfect one, I wonder how 10 years ago this would have been progged. I rather doubt all involved are trying to "screw over" a few million people. :roll:
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Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Atmospheric science is obviously not a perfect one, I wonder how 10 years ago this would have been progged. I rather doubt all involved are trying to "screw over" a few million people. :roll:
True, but our Gooberment has a long historical track-record of applying "dynamite" to ALL problems regardless of size -- because they CAN -- which implies sometimes maybe they SHOULDN'T.
Yes, I was a fed for 30 years, so I get it. However, there are certainly times I think the some of the cynicism should be placed elsewhere.
As the saying goes, "If you think you can do it better....
Just sayin'....
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Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Atmospheric science is obviously not a perfect one, I wonder how 10 years ago this would have been progged. I rather doubt all involved are trying to "screw over" a few million people. :roll:
I.E.: election-styled newscasts and monthly 'storm-of-the-century' warnings soon numb the audience to further listening.
Yep, I hear ya. Unless this turns into Camille in the next few hours, head(s) should roll, not the science, and not those who are true professionals without the BS.
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NHC and NWS in general need to drop the dramatics and sensationalism.
Take the Joe Friday approach.
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Euro has it turning SW and tracking along Myrtle Beach. That could cause havoc along the coast vs just going inland and weakening.
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As I look at radar now (02Z), it's absolutely dead still. Cat 4, Cat whatever, pimped out or not, this will be a very, very long night for that coast.
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I am in the "better safe than sorry" camp. I don't live down there, but if I did, I would have evacuated if it was at all possible, and I realize it isn't possible for some folks.
I do live in tornado country, and I hear lots of criticism about all the tornado warnings that turn out to be nothing. But when the sirens go off, I head to the basement, even if the sun is still shining. (Yes, I realize that is a trivial action compared to boarding every thing up and evacuating your home).
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I am in the "better safe than sorry" camp. I don't live down there, but if I did, I would have evacuated if it was at all possible, and I realize it isn't possible for some folks.
I had a totally different speech prepared, but I agree with what you said. I went to Charleston, SC the day after Hugo hit as part of a team to restore emergency communications. I saw people living on their wooden floors in makeshift tents because that was all of their house that was left. I have no idea how they survived, but they did.
I've seen the destruction caused by Hugo, Andrew and Katrina - you need the crap scared out of you so that you will evacuate, if at all possible.
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I'm not downplaying the storm but some of the field reporters are rocking back and forth and the bushes behind them barely move. Reminds me of some funny videos on youtube like bag lady pushing cart, as field reporter is describing how bad it is.
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^^ Don't balloons wobble in lesser breezes than trees and bushes? You know, airheads?
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^^ Don't balloons wobble in lesser breezes than trees and bushes? You know, airheads?
Astute observation!!!! =D>
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Few FB pics from Wilmington as the eye passes over.
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Howdy Greg! Looks like you may get some rain and a little wind yourself off of Florence. Hopefully this will be the gigantic storm that wasn't. ;)
Hey! :D
Well, it's not going to win any records for movement. But they're going to get feet of rain in NC and SC.
What bothers me is that they told people for a week or more that it's coming and today they have to do rescues. That just isn't right.
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In my best imitation Forrest Gump voice: "...can't fix stupid..."
The $64,000 question is if we as a society should continue to try fixing stupid, or just let natural selection wash out the weak ones from the gene pool? :roll:
Seriously though, I hope that no emergency responders are harmed trying to save those who didn't heed the numerous warnings.....
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The Weather Channel busted again.
[youtube]https://youtu.be/oWGcXhAxrhw[/youtube]
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Just about to post it - you beat me to it.
Not just the folks walking, but look at the grass blowing. He is leaning in the wrong direction.
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Here is another one. She is "covering the story from Wrightsville beach". However she is nowhere near the beach. The battleship and buildings in the background are miles on the other side of Wilmington.
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:lol: I can't believe the oh-so-astute cameraman didn't even notice the two moseying in the background. Man, that's bad.... :lol:
That's even worse than Cantore running around like an idiot when he discovered thundersnow a few years back.
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I don't know. I found it quite humorous. Was it really broadcast as something serious?
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Just about to post it - you beat me to it.
Not just the folks walking, but look at the grass blowing. He is leaning in the wrong direction.
Great to hear from one of the Carolina contingent. I hope they all made it through ok.
Any damage to your property or home. Do you still have power?
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I don't know. I found it quite humorous. Was it really broadcast as something serious?
That was supposedly a live broadcast on The Weather Channel.
Someone else did this apparent parody, with an old lady using a cane walking behind the reporter hanging onto a light pole for dear life:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcaEwYWkKAk[/youtube]
Don't miss the crawling text at the bottom, about the hurricane causing earthquakes and other funny stuff.....
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Just about to post it - you beat me to it.
Not just the folks walking, but look at the grass blowing. He is leaning in the wrong direction.
Great to hear from one of the Carolina contingent. I hope they all made it through ok.
Any damage to your property or home. Do you still have power?
Power still out. I am staying at a hotel in VA. My neighbor across the street went out as the eye went over and told me that we lost a shutter and some shingles. He also lost a large tree. Right now they are saying I40 is closed till Monday morning due to flooding. Won't get back before then.
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Some more pics from FB friends. A tree came through her roof, gas station down, Downtown Wilmington by the river, I40 closed.
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At the port
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For the weather impaired...
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My power went out yesterday at 6:15AM, came back on about 10AM today... not too bad, I'm close to a substation, and my development has all underground utilities.
Many trees down on my street, none at my house though. Yard covered in pine tree debris, including some fairly large branches. "Unfortunately", haven't lost enough roof shingles to qualify for insurance replacement... ;)
So far rain has been fairly minimal, all things considered, getting bands now though.
I-40 closed in multiple spots between Wilm and Raleigh (although this is likely available on the NCDOT site, I'm hearing first hand reports via ham radio).
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I got out yesterday during the eye also, have to admit, it's really creepy to have a hurricane blowing away, then all of a sudden, dead quiet. All my neighbors scurried out during the lull, kinda funny to see...
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There are a few Zello channels active regarding private Florence rescue and support efforts. Right now I'm monitoring the Cajun Navy channel. They were active during Harvey, and one of the volunteer dispatchers wrote an article about her experience in Reader's Digest.
www.zello.com, apps for phones, Windows etc.
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For the weather impaired...
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Great graph
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And another one - CNN
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http://www.foxnews.com/us/2018/09/15/weather-channel-defends-reporter-captured-swaying-in-florence-winds-as-2-people-walk-behind-him.html
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As Dr Obbins pointed out the acting was so bad he was leaning the wrong way.
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Flo still has some kick as she comes through the northeast. Seeing 3/4/5" per hour rainfall rates in the last 45 minutes or so, some thunder. No wind to speak of yet. Flash flood warning.
Luckily for us we only get this for a few hours.
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And another one - CNN
I don't think I even need to say it. CNN has been staging news events for some time now, guess I shouldn't be surprised when Weather Channel follows in same steps. Wouldn't it be nice if news became real again.
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Cell that hit us went severe after it passed and had enough spin to prompt a tornado warning on the North Shore.
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I'm back home. Power restored yesterday. Place looks like a tornado came close. Trees from over 100 yrs snapped. Power poles snapped. Only damage I had is a fence, and lots of branches. Half a tree load is down from a water oak that was near 100 ft tall I would guess at least. A small tree was lifted and dropped 5 feet away from the root in the ground.