Ian,
I can tell you that I do have a routine of letting the dogs out at night.
My family originally thought I was so nice, but now they know I also checking the weather.
I have to tell you I can get surprised allot of the time, but as far as at least the morning weather I can get pretty close.
Example: Last night I go out and it is over 90° F at about 22:00 not unusual for June but for September...
Well monsoon weather had been moving in all day and the air just felt heavy.
Sure enough the DP was 56° F and that is what is necessary for monsoonal activity,
(DP over 56°F is definitely a measuring stick around here).
So now I am 50-50 for a great sunrise and actually my gut told me the air was too heavy so more like 20%.
Sure enough this morning the clouds were too thick to let any color through and we are grey this morning.
I did get a picture of a squall about 30 miles behind our Century Saguaro.
The rest is just grey but our monsoon weather is great for mammatus so I am keeping an eye out for that.
I know Greg does the same thing but his criteria is different than mine.
Some of it is what we observe and some is what our instruments tell us.
I am hoping Greg will chime in and speak to the coastal conditions he looks for.
When i lived in Oregon USA I was located at the foot of two mountains one
of which has a gorge that opened partly to the Columbia River Basin.
The Columbia opens a hole in the Cascade Mountain Range.
The Cascades shields most of the Willamette Valley from arctic blasts from the midwest.
The CR Gorge often turned into a wind tunnel letting the blast through.
The hole in our mountain did the same for my house.
I did a post on topography and lenticulars for my area
http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=17903.msg172983#msg172983I also did one for GregJ's area
http://www.wxforum.net/index.php?topic=21114.msg202830#msg202830As you can see I am big on topographic influences on weather.
In watching GregJ and Morfeas2002 videos you can see the difference between upper and lower level air flows.
It is amazing how different they can be.
Got to go to work get long in the tooth anyway.
Randall