Author Topic: The value of historical data...  (Read 618 times)

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Offline SLOweather

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The value of historical data...
« on: November 02, 2016, 11:57:21 AM »
This was in the local paper Sunday, in a column written by the local PG&E meteorologist:

http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/weather/weather-watch/article111354042.html

Quote
In San Luis Obispo County, I recently received an email from John Neil of the Atascadero Mutual Water Co. The company has collected rainfall data since 1914 at a rain gauge at the confluence of the Salinas River and Atascadero Creek.

For the first time since 2010, Neil recorded more than 2 inches of rain this month at that rain gauge.

After he carefully reviewed the historical data, Neil discovered that in past years when this station received more than 2 inches of rain during October, the following months also received above-average rainfall. That meant that during those rain seasons (which run from July 1 to June 30) total rainfall was higher than normal.

That led me to review rainfall data from the Diablo Canyon Power Plant rain gauge; I noticed the same trend of a wet October leading to near-normal to above-normal precipitation for the rain season.

I must say, I’ve been forecasting weather along the Central Coast since 1992, and believe that Neil’s observations could be wonderful news indeed. Keep in mind, though, that nothing is guaranteed and only time will tell the story.


At SLOweather, we were over the average for October, and currently at 131% for the season, so there's hope.
« Last Edit: November 02, 2016, 11:59:39 AM by SLOweather »

Offline Bushman

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Re: The value of historical data...
« Reply #1 on: November 02, 2016, 05:46:09 PM »
Correlation does not causation make - especially as it relates to weather.  :)
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