Author Topic: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?  (Read 1600 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline Maumelle Weather

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1824
    • Maumelle Weather
Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« on: January 18, 2019, 11:50:04 AM »
Here is another winner of an article from Accuweather throwing the NWS under the bus while touting themselves. I apologize for not posting it last night. They are catching some serious, well deserved backlash for this, and have "modified" the original story and posted an apology as well. Too little, too late on both.

https://web.archive.org/web/2019011...casts-during-the-government-shutdown/70007173

Edit: Original story was posted by @ChaserTV on Twitter last night.
GR2AE, GR3, Cumulus

Offline WeatherHost

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 3649
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #1 on: January 18, 2019, 01:16:28 PM »
First, I don't do any 'chaser' stuff.  Second, I don't do television any more or any kind.  Third, I don't do 'commercial' weather services at all.  My ONLY source for weather is NWS, with one exception.  I use Timeanddate.com for a two week glimpse, but I don't put any weight on it.


When I did watch TV, I ignored all national commercial weather companies and used my local TV stations as well as NWS.

NWS is one of the life safety services, so it is not affected.  NOAA has some areas affected like NCDC that deals in past information.

Offline floodcaster

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 635
    • Goose Lake Weather
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #2 on: January 18, 2019, 01:39:49 PM »

NWS is one of the life safety services, so it is not affected.  NOAA has some areas affected like NCDC that deals in past information.

Yes, all the operational NWS offices like your local NWS forecast office are working 24/7. The only difference is that they are not getting paid.
Bill


Greg_M

  • Guest
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #3 on: January 18, 2019, 02:32:58 PM »
Could you ever trust the (any) weather forecast?
I usually just walk out on the porch and look up or look out the window.  :-)

Offline Mattk

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2136
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #4 on: January 18, 2019, 03:13:57 PM »
Forgetting the term trust for a minute, a forecast is still only a forecast

Greg_M

  • Guest
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #5 on: January 18, 2019, 03:24:34 PM »
The final moving load we made from WA to NM (pickup pulling a 7x14 trailer) the forecasters swore up and down our route was going to be sunny with birds tweeting etc.
All 6 of the passes had compact snow and ice.  :evil:
Had we known we would have taken the long route through CA.

I don't trust them anymore.

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4383
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2019, 05:00:14 AM »
I did read an article I think last week that said some of the models they use for forecasting have been effected because they need daily maintenance. Not sure what that means but it did say the  accuracy would be effected in regards to forecasting.
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4383
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2019, 05:09:38 AM »
The final moving load we made from WA to NM (pickup pulling a 7x14 trailer) the forecasters swore up and down our route was going to be sunny with birds tweeting etc.
All 6 of the passes had compact snow and ice.  :evil:
Had we known we would have taken the long route through CA.

I don't trust them anymore.
It's not that I don't trust them but it's an impossible job. They use model data, local knowledge, weather balloons, and our own PWS. It's still not enough. Unless we had nano sensors suspended in the air at different levels about 1000ft apart there is no way to determine what's going on consistently in the atmosphere. It's not that they aren't good at their job but lack of data is the issue. I have experienced the same thing you have. Several times but as I said it's an impossible job. All it is is an educated guess about what should/might happen.
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline Mattk

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 2136
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2019, 05:55:18 AM »
Well because a forecast generally covers such a large area, it simply can not be specifically correct all of the time but if you really wanted a forecast for a specific part of your street then that probably has a better success rate then an overall general forecast area, just don't ask the cost thou

Offline ocala

  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 4383
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #9 on: January 19, 2019, 06:06:22 AM »
Well because a forecast generally covers such a large area, it simply can not be specifically correct all of the time but if you really wanted a forecast for a specific part of your street then that probably has a better success rate then an overall general forecast area, just don't ask the cost thou
That is already available via the NWS Point Forecast.
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline steller1

  • Member
  • *
  • Posts: 1
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #10 on: January 22, 2019, 11:49:59 AM »
I was very surprised Accu-Weather issued the statement given they know full well that weather forecasting is considered an essential security concern.  Not sure as to why they issued the original statement as did absolutely nothing for them.

I work for Weather Source (www.weathersource.com) and we haven't seen any degradation of services or data during the entire shutdown.  We have increased our level of quality assurance to validate no errors, etc. but as of yesterday we've had no issues as a result of the shutdown.


Offline Old Tele man

  • Singing in the rain...
  • Forecaster
  • *****
  • Posts: 1365
Re: Can you trust weather forecasts during the government shutdown?
« Reply #11 on: January 22, 2019, 01:40:12 PM »
Well, there is a REASON they are called Weather GUESS'ers, ie: (paraphrasing) "...everyone TALKS about the weather, but no one gets it right..."
• SYS: Davis VP2 Vue/WL-IP & Envoy8X/WL-USB;
• DBX2 & DBX1 Precision Digital Barographs
• CWOP: DW6988 - 2 miles NNE of Cortaro, AZ
• WU - KAZTUCSO202, Countryside

 

anything