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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Weather Folklore => Topic started by: Garth Bock on February 22, 2012, 03:18:16 PM

Title: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Garth Bock on February 22, 2012, 03:18:16 PM
Get your morning coffee and predict the weather...

http://www.instructables.com/id/Predict-weather-with-a-cup-of-coffee/ (http://www.instructables.com/id/Predict-weather-with-a-cup-of-coffee/)

Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: DanS on February 22, 2012, 06:49:02 PM
I'll have to start watching for that. Curious now. :-)
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: SlowModem on February 22, 2012, 07:08:30 PM
I think it works backwards on the other side of the world.  err....Or is that counterclockwise below the equator?  I get it all mixed up.   :oops:
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 22, 2012, 10:23:51 PM
Can the coffee drinkers reading this thread commit to validating this theory over the next week?  This IS a weather-enthusiast forum afterall.

I pledge to monitor my morning coffee bubbles and report the day's weather until March 1.  Anyone else?
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: DanS on February 22, 2012, 10:43:22 PM
After reading about it this morning (here), I went for my second cup. Bubbles formed in the center while i was pouring and then remained in a group and slowly moved to one side. Barometer has been on the rise since then, 5 hours ago with mostly clear sky. :-P :roll:
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: kray1000 on February 22, 2012, 11:11:38 PM
I've heard that if you see ridges in your coffee, you're probably very nervous.  Or having an earthquake.

In the Southern Hemisphere, the ridges will be upside-down.
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Garth Bock on February 23, 2012, 12:20:08 AM
I've heard that if you see ridges in your coffee, you're probably very nervous.  Or having an earthquake.


Or a T-Rex is heading your way......
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: SlowModem on February 23, 2012, 03:27:19 AM
I've heard that if you see ridges in your coffee, you're probably very nervous.  Or having an earthquake.


And if you see clouds in your coffee, you're Carley Simon.   =D>
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: DanS on February 23, 2012, 06:29:25 AM
I've heard that if you see ridges in your coffee, you're probably very nervous.  Or having an earthquake.


And if you see clouds in your coffee, you're Carley Simon.   =D>  (http://i588.photobucket.com/albums/ss324/DanS_photo_09/rimShot-1.gif)
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: mackbig on February 23, 2012, 06:38:16 AM
Cant decipher my Latte this morning. Lots of "bubbles", guess either a hurricane or a blizzard.

Andrew
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Garth Bock on February 23, 2012, 09:36:08 AM
I've heard that if you see ridges in your coffee, you're probably very nervous.  Or having an earthquake.


And if you see clouds in your coffee, you're Carley Simon.   =D>
(Beat me to it)

 =D> =D> =D> =D> =D> =D>
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: neondesert on February 23, 2012, 10:34:24 AM
Wha..what bubbles?

(http://www.neondesertweather.com/postImages/coffeegirl.jpg)
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: SlowModem on February 23, 2012, 11:42:37 AM
Wha..what bubbles?

(http://www.neondesertweather.com/postImages/coffeegirl.jpg)

WOW!
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Garth Bock on February 23, 2012, 02:26:46 PM
Almost lost my train of .....darn......oh....



Deja Brew:  The feeling that you've had this coffee before.
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: SlowModem on February 23, 2012, 02:30:28 PM
Deja Brew:  The feeling that you've had this coffee before.

I thought that was heartburn.   :roll:
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Garth Bock on February 23, 2012, 10:44:41 PM
If you plan on testing this hypothesis keep records and don't over do it....

Jeff Bezos said that in Seattle you haven't had enough coffee until you can thread a sewing machine.........while its running.....
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 24, 2012, 08:57:15 AM
Testing it with first-cup only.  Not validating six times.  My wife doesn't let me near her sewing-machine anyway.

February 23 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Partly Sunny
The Weather Channel = Party Cloudy
Wunderground = Partly Cloudy
NWS = Partly Sunny
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = Clearing in a few hours

And the observation...
Morning overcast, mostly sunny by noon, overcast by late afternoon, light rain overnight.

My interpretation...
All forecasts fairly close.


February 24 forecasts...
Local TV weather = 100% chance of precipitation
The Weather Channel = 90% chance of rain
Wunderground = 100% chance of precipitation
NWS = 100% chance of rain
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours

Observations to follow...

[edit] jumped in the Tardis and corrected the dates [/edit]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: gadget_guy on February 24, 2012, 09:21:55 AM
It Works!  After my 12th cup of coffee I finally was able to thread the sewing machine!  Seriously, I'm a coffee maniac.  I will try this on my next cup and report back.  There is nothing like a good cup of freshly roasted coffee in the morning.  These days I'm even roasting my own.  Every sunday the garage smells like a coffee shop!
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Garth Bock on February 24, 2012, 10:06:14 AM
Testing it with first-cup only.  Not validating six times.  My wife doesn't let me near her sewing-machine anyway.

March 23 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Partly Sunny
The Weather Channel = Party Cloudy
Wunderground = Partly Cloudy
NWS = Partly Sunny
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = Clearing in a few hours

And the observation...
Morning overcast, mostly sunny by noon, overcast by late afternoon, light rain overnight.

My interpretation...
All forecasts fairly close.


March 24 forecasts...
Local TV weather = 100% chance of precipitation
The Weather Channel = 90% chance of rain
Wunderground = 100% chance of precipitation
NWS = 100% chance of rain
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours

Observations to follow...

Uh....you mean February 24 forecasts...not March right....or does the coffee you drink accelerate time too ?
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 24, 2012, 10:23:40 AM
Testing it with first-cup only.  Not validating six times.  My wife doesn't let me near her sewing-machine anyway.

March 23 forecasts...
March 24 forecasts...

Uh....you mean February 24 forecasts...not March right....or does the coffee you drink accelerate time too ?

OK, you caught me.  I made my observations before the first cup, and the post after the sixth.  (edit to follow)
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: SlowModem on February 24, 2012, 11:45:14 AM
Uh....you mean February 24 forecasts...not March right....or does the coffee you drink accelerate time too ?

Details details   #-o 

 :lol:
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 25, 2012, 08:55:59 AM
The verdict for yesterday's weather???  Overcast morning, steady moderate rain from noon on.

All forecasts good, except for Vue.

Today's forecasts were interrupted as I was compiling them.  Just as I was reading the NWS severe weather alert for high winds, the power went out.  No coffee yet, and typing in the dark on my wife's laptop until the UPS on my network stuff dies.   :sad:

February 25 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Mostly Cloudy and Rain - Wind
The Weather Channel = Mostly Cloudy
Wunderground = Overcast and 60% Chance of precip
NWS = Overcast, windy, snow tonight
Davis Vue = Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = power out.  100% chance of scattered crankiness.

[edit]
In the interest of science, I found the kettle and made some instant (Starbucks Via - still just emergency coffee at best)  
revised forecast...
6:30am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours
[/edit]

[edit2]
And the observation...
Morning high winds and very few drops/flakes.  Mostly sunny by 10:00am.  Calm and clear by 6:00pm.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = 33% (wind yes, rain no, mostly-cloudy, no)
The Weather Channel = NO
Wunderground = NO
NWS = 33% (wind yes, overcast no, snow-tonight no)
Davis Vue = NO (since it cleared up only a few hours later for the rest of the day, i say no)
6:00am Coffee = NO
[/edit2]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: DanS on February 25, 2012, 09:14:54 AM
 :lol: That's funny. I was reading down through your post grinning until the part where the power went out and no coffee yet. Immediately the grin left. Then the end your forecast summed it up well and the grin returned. :lol: man, I'd be running around like crazy to build a fire to boil water. Gotta have that mojo.
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 25, 2012, 10:33:02 PM
All of my edits for today are hard to read...  Here is today all cleaned up...

February 25 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Mostly Cloudy and Rain - Wind
The Weather Channel = Mostly Cloudy
Wunderground = Overcast and 60% Chance of precip
NWS = Overcast, windy, snow tonight
Davis Vue = Cloudy
6:30am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours

And the observation...
Morning high winds and very few drops/flakes.  Mostly sunny by 10:00am.  Calm and clear by 6:00pm.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = 33% (wind yes, rain no, mostly-cloudy, no) so I say NO
The Weather Channel = NO
Wunderground = NO
NWS = 33% (wind yes, overcast no, snow-tonight no) so I say NO
Davis Vue = NO (since it cleared up only a few hours later for the rest of the day, i say no)
6:30am Coffee = NO
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 26, 2012, 10:25:44 AM
February 26 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Partly sunny, chance of snow showers
The Weather Channel = Mostly Cloudy, chance of rain/snow showers
Wunderground = Overcast, Snow showers
NWS = Cloudy, Snow showers
Davis Vue = Partly cloudy
7:00am Coffee = maybe some weather, clearing in a few hours

[edit]
And the observation...
Morning clouds and scattered snow showers.  Mostly sunny by 10:00am for the rest of the day.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = NO (mostly sunny, not mostly cloudy)
Wunderground = NO
NWS = YES (weren't specific about how many clouds, so ok)
Davis Vue = YES
6:30am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: DanS on February 26, 2012, 10:28:32 AM
I wonder if you could do an evening forecast by pouring a beer and watching the bubbles from the foam? :-k
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 26, 2012, 10:31:10 AM
I wonder if you could do an evening forecast by pouring a beer and watching the bubbles from the foam? :-k

In the interest of science, I'm willing to give that a try.  UU
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 27, 2012, 09:08:02 AM
The observations and interpretation for yesterday is edited into that post.  No overnight forecast.

February 27 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Sunny
The Weather Channel = Sunny
Wunderground = Clear
NWS = Sunny
Davis Vue = Partly cloudy
6:00am Coffee = Expect clear skies for the next 12 hours

[edit]
And the observation...
Clear all day.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = YES
Wunderground = YES
NWS = YES
Davis Vue = NO
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 28, 2012, 09:35:14 AM
February 28 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Mostly cloudy, afternoon rain/snow
The Weather Channel = Mostly cloudy, 40% chance of rain
Wunderground = Mostly cloudy, 80% chance of precip
NWS = 30% chance of rain/snow after 10am
Davis Vue = Partly cloudy - snow
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours.

[edit]
And the observation...
Overcast from mid-morning.  Light rain after 5:00pm.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = YES
Wunderground = YES
NWS = YES
Davis Vue = NO
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on February 29, 2012, 09:04:58 AM
February 29 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Light snow (all local mets are brief today)
The Weather Channel = Partly cloudy, 80% chance of rain/snow
Wunderground = 70% chance of snow
NWS = 80% chance of rain
Davis Vue = Rain
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours.

[edit]
And the observation...
Overcast all day.  Light rain most of the day.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = NO
The Weather Channel = YES
Wunderground = NO
NWS = YES
Davis Vue = YES
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on March 01, 2012, 09:28:47 AM
I'm going to continue to March 3, just to get more data points and make the math easier.

March 1 forecasts...
Local TV weather = 1-3" of morning snow (for my area) then partial clearning
The Weather Channel = Mostly cloudy.  Morning snow showers and afternoon rain showers
Wunderground = Mostly cloudy.  Morning snow showers and afternoon rain showers
NWS = Snow likely in morning then mostly cloudy
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = Maybe some weather, should clear in a few hours.

March in Seattle...  In like a lion, out like a wet lion.

[edit]
And the observation...
Overcast morning.  Party cloudy afternoon.  Cloudy again after sunset.  No precip.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = NO
The Weather Channel = NO
Wunderground = NO
NWS = NO
Davis Vue = YES
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on March 02, 2012, 09:38:16 AM
March 2 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Afternoon rain
The Weather Channel = Overcast. 50% chance of rain
Wunderground = 80% chance of precip
NWS = 70% chance of rain
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours.

[edit]
And the observation...
Overcast allday.  Light rain morning.  Moderate rain afternoon.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = YES
Wunderground = YES
NWS = YES
Davis Vue = NO
6:00am Coffee = YES
[/edit]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Majic12 on March 02, 2012, 12:42:42 PM
coffee bubbles predicted rain...its raining now 3 hours later...
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on March 03, 2012, 09:16:29 AM
Final day of observations...

March 3 forecasts...
Local TV weather = Mostly cloudy
The Weather Channel = Cloudy with a few showers.
Wunderground = 40% chance of showers
NWS = 40% chance of showers
Davis Vue = Partly Cloudy
6:00am Coffee = expect rain in 12 hours.

[edit]
And the observation...
Mostly cloudy morning.  partly cloudy afternoon. No precip at all.

My interpretation...
Local TV weather = YES
The Weather Channel = NO
Wunderground = YES (less than 50% chance, and it didn't)
NWS = YES (less than 50% chance, and it didn't)
Davis Vue = YES
6:00am Coffee = NO
[/edit]
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: DanS on March 03, 2012, 09:33:36 AM
So, after today's weather can you provide us with a summary of the accuracy of coffee bubble forecasting? :-P
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on March 03, 2012, 11:22:46 PM
To restate the OP, Garth Bock linked to this article  (http://www.instructables.com/id/Predict-weather-with-a-cup-of-coffee/) about predicting the weather with your morning coffee.

To test this theory and compare it with other popular forecasts for accuracy, I compiled forecasts for ten consecutive days and recorded my observations at the end of the day.  The chart below represents (in order of percentage successful forecasts) the results.  Y= successful forcast.  N = unsuccessful forecast.  Highly subjective and not entirely scientific, but it was fun.  Here we go...

COFFEE     YYNYYYYYYN   80%
NWS          YYNYYYYNYY   80%
LOCAL-TV   YYNYYYNNYY   70%
TWC          YYNNYYYNYN   60%
WU            YYNNYYNNYY   60%
VUE           YNNYNNYYNY   50%

Please draw your own conclusions.  I have to cut the Davis Vue a little slack, because there are no subjective inputs to it's forecast, and the weather in the Puget Sound region of Washington State is hard to predict even when a meteorologist is doing the fortune-telling.  Their broadcasts typically change frequently throughout the day, but I went with what I read in their personalized online post in the morning.
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: W3DRM on March 03, 2012, 11:34:47 PM
I get up and take out my ear-plugs (someone else in the family snores...)  :shock:

Then, I turn on the coffee and go out and get my daily reading from my CoCoRAHS gauge and input it to the network.

Lastly, I pour me a cup of java.

What was the first thing I was supposed to do??? - check "bubbles" or was it check "the bubbles" in my coffee - sorry, I'm just lost I guess  :?: ](*,)

Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Farmtalk on March 05, 2012, 06:33:20 AM
Hmmm I get up early, normally around 430, but ive never drank a cup of coffee in my life :grin:
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: DanS on March 05, 2012, 06:57:08 AM
The link in the OP says that hot tea and cocoa will work too so there's still a chance you can help with the forecast in your area.  ;)
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Farmtalk on March 05, 2012, 04:31:41 PM
Yeah thats true, i drink tea occasionally so I guess I can still try this! :grin:
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on March 05, 2012, 07:42:28 PM
Yeah thats true, i drink tea occasionally so I guess I can still try this! :grin:

I drink it black, so I had to use the "plop" method to make more bubbles.  Some sweetener or milk might increase the bubblosity of your tea.
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: Mark / Ohio on March 05, 2012, 08:56:17 PM
;) You guys must have more time in the morning then I do.     Mine almost goes straight from the pot down the hatch.  lol
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: xykotik on March 05, 2012, 10:03:35 PM
;) You guys must have more time in the morning then I do.     Mine almost goes straight from the pot down the hatch.  lol

Make coffee, wake the kids and read the news (online) while they get ready for school is the start of my day.

Three Christmasses ago, wifey got me one of them fancy Keurig machines.  Heats up just as I get up, and it takes about 30 seconds to make a good cup.  Fairly high-tech little doohickies, them little K-cups, by the time they get 'em filled, nitro-charged and sealed.  Several options for fill-yer-own too, for those who hate all of the waste from the cups (which actually compress quite small).
Title: Re: First thing in the morning....
Post by: SlowModem on March 05, 2012, 10:37:26 PM
Three Christmasses ago, wifey got me one of them fancy Keurig machines.  Heats up just as I get up, and it takes about 30 seconds to make a good cup. 

I've had a Bunn for years.  It would be hard for me to part with it.