Topic: Predicting whistlers

[miraculon]

While hunting around for a way to predict the occurrence of VLF whistlers associated with lightning, I found an interesting paper.

http://www.astron-soc.in/bulletin/07December/356552007.PDF

In the paper they have a chart showing the Occurrence Probability of Whistlers, vs ΣK_p. I found a reference that this is the daily sum of the 3-hour K_p intervals.

NOAA publishes this chart on a daily basis. I'll attach it below.



I would assume that I could sum the K_p intervals for the day to get the ΣK_p value. Comparing it against the chart in the paper, I think that this would give an idea on when to go listen for whistlers.

Opinions? Does this make sense? If I could have something better than "random" for whistler listening, it would be great.

Greg H.

[corwyyn]

Makes sense to me.  I would take the sum of the last eight values for the Kp index from the graph, that would give you the total value for the last 24hrs from the time of the most current estimate.  Went looking around and found an app from NASA that can give you the current Kp index along with a ton of other geomagnetic info on an Android phone (probably something similar for iPhone): http://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=gov.nasa.gsfc.iswa.NASASpaceWeather

Now if we could just put together something that would sum the last 24hr period and send an alert when conditions are right