Author Topic: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak  (Read 3491 times)

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Offline WeatherMonger

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7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« on: July 19, 2018, 07:48:31 PM »
Quite the surprise event evolved in IA today, several tornados, some of which have reports of being very destructive, occured.



Currently awaiting the issuance of a Thunderstorm Watch here im central IL as it turns more linear.

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Mesoscale Discussion 1091
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0626 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast Missouri into western and central
   Illinois.

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely

   Valid 192326Z - 200030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Storms in southeast Iowa are expected to grow upscale
   through the evening with an increasing wind damage threat. A
   downstream severe thunderstorm watch is likely within the hour.

   DISCUSSION...Latest HRRR guidance suggests the storms in southeast
   Iowa may continue to grow upscale through the evening. Effective
   shear of 40 to 45 knots per the latest RAP mesoanalysis and MUCAPE
   of 2000 to 2500 J/kg supports continued growth of these existing
   storms. If a strong enough cold-pool develops, a MCS may develop and
   persist through much of the overnight period. Wind damage will be
   the primary threat as these storms organize into a more linear mode.
   Once these storms congeal into a linear segment, the tornado risk
   will likely decrease as low-level shear vectors will be oriented
   mostly parallel to any linear development. Some hail is possible,
   but modest mid-level lapse rates (6 to 6.5 C/km) will preclude a
   greater hail threat. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
   needed within the hour to cover the damaging wind threat into the
   overnight period.

   ..Bentley.. 07/19/2018
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 09:41:38 PM by WeatherMonger »

Offline chief-david

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #1 on: July 19, 2018, 07:57:42 PM »
Kcci is Des moines is live.
http://www.kcci.com/article/central-iowa-ripe-for-storm-chances/22444689

Ugly day. I have been in from of that courthouse a few times.



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Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #2 on: July 19, 2018, 07:58:22 PM »
Watch just issued, I'm on the eastern fringe of it of course :lol:


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URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 286
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   650 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018

   The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

   * Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
     parts of western and central Illinois
     portions of northeast and east central Missouri

   * Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 650 PM
     until 200 AM CDT.

   * Primary threats include...
     Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
     Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
     A tornado or two possible

   SUMMARY...A cluster of strong/severe storms will continue shifting
   southeast out of Iowa and into northwest Missouri/west-central
   Illinois over the next few hours -- and possibly continuing into
   central Illinois later this evening.  Damaging winds will likely be
   the primary severe risk, though hail may also occur over the next
   couple of hours.  A tornado or two will also be possible --
   particularly in the next 1-2 hours over western portions of the
   watch.

   The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
   statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest
   of Quincy IL to 30 miles north northeast of Salem IL. For a complete
   depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
   (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

Tornado threat dropped off big time

Quote
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #3 on: July 19, 2018, 08:01:49 PM »
Kcci is Des moines is live.
http://www.kcci.com/article/central-iowa-ripe-for-storm-chances/22444689

Ugly day. I have been in from of that courthouse a few times.

Seen a couple vids on the tornados, one in Marshalton and another in Bondurant that appeared to have a brief twin tornado.

https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid...mp;id=501662735

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #4 on: July 19, 2018, 08:06:23 PM »
Looks like it is losing its tornadic properties now and a wind threat will become the main factor. Damage is already done though, never wish that on anyone. Hopefully no loss of life has occurred.

Unless the bow extends northeastward I am likely to be skirted or all out missed with this one. North side of Springfield, IL.

I love a good storm, but never wish for destruction.


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Offline chief-david

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #5 on: July 19, 2018, 08:06:47 PM »
Marshalltown is beat up. From Downtown to the north end. Went from NW to East side.
Head the courthouse was built in 1883 and a building next to it is from the 1860's. That building is destroyed.




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Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #6 on: July 19, 2018, 08:11:05 PM »
Definitely did not look good on the one short clip I seen. Appeared to have been going through the heart of the town/city. Not sure of its size, but hopefully they had some time to prepare and take cover.

I really wasn't paying attention today. Easily over performed the forecast, quite the event for what has been a very slow year for tornados(not that that is a bad thing).

Offline chief-david

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #7 on: July 19, 2018, 08:16:12 PM »
wiki say population now around 28000. I would guess a lot are out of power.
Damage to the hospital and old Lennox plant. Not sure about Tyson foods (or what ever it is named now-hog butcher) Maidrite, or the car dealers on the north side.  It has been a long time since I was there, but taught to the NW of there and my wife worked in town.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 08:18:57 PM by chief-david »



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Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #8 on: July 19, 2018, 08:20:58 PM »
That's a good sized populace, and to hit through town makes it even that much more devastating.

Thoughts are definitely with them. Had 2 EF2's hit here back in March 2006, not something you want to go through for certain.

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #9 on: July 19, 2018, 08:25:50 PM »
Guessing St. Louis will get another wind driven clobbering. They've had their fair share this year, expect it to tak a more southerly track if it maintains strength.

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Offline melissa from illinois

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #10 on: July 19, 2018, 08:32:19 PM »
And you probably just jinxed it for us, lol.

Offline snowlover2

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #11 on: July 19, 2018, 08:33:40 PM »
Marshalltown is beat up. From Downtown to the north end. Went from NW to East side.
Head the courthouse was built in 1883 and a building next to it is from the 1860's. That building is destroyed.


You could tell by the couplet at the time that Marshalltown was going to take heavy damage.

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #12 on: July 19, 2018, 08:39:34 PM »
And you probably just jinxed it for us, lol.

I've never thought we were in it. Had a couple overturnings with the rain late morning and again early afternoon.

Heck, if you or I sneeze before a storm forms we'll stabilize the atmosphere  :lol:

Offline melissa from illinois

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #13 on: July 19, 2018, 08:44:49 PM »
And you probably just jinxed it for us, lol.

I've never thought we were in it. Had a couple overturnings with the rain late morning and again early afternoon.

Heck, if you or I sneeze before a storm forms we'll stabilize the atmosphere  :lol:

HA, aint that the truth! I was hopin tho with the sun out the way it was that maybe we would have destabilized enough to see at least some wind.

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #14 on: July 19, 2018, 08:56:31 PM »
And you probably just jinxed it for us, lol.

I've never thought we were in it. Had a couple overturnings with the rain late morning and again early afternoon.

Heck, if you or I sneeze before a storm forms we'll stabilize the atmosphere  :lol:

HA, aint that the truth! I was hopin tho with the sun out the way it was that maybe we would have destabilized enough to see at least some wind.

You still have time to make it to St Louis


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Offline melissa from illinois

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #15 on: July 19, 2018, 09:00:01 PM »
And you probably just jinxed it for us, lol.

I've never thought we were in it. Had a couple overturnings with the rain late morning and again early afternoon.

Heck, if you or I sneeze before a storm forms we'll stabilize the atmosphere  :lol:

HA, aint that the truth! I was hopin tho with the sun out the way it was that maybe we would have destabilized enough to see at least some wind.

You still have time to make it to St Louis

LOL, i'll pass thank you very much!
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 09:02:51 PM by melissa from illinois »

Offline Aardvark

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Re: 7/18/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #16 on: July 19, 2018, 09:30:13 PM »
Major tornado damage near here to day.  They had only 15 min warning.  the storms just happened over the areas:

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/2018/07/19/polk-county-tornado-warning-watch-storms-marion-national-weather-service/803235002/

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/videos/news/2018/07/20/watch-iowa-tornado-topple-part-marshall-county-courthouse/804693002/
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/weather/2018/07/19/vermeer-corporation-pella-damaged-storm-people-inside-hospitalized-iowa-tornadoes-iowa-storms/804411002/

http://www.kcci.com/article/central-iowa-ripe-for-storm-chances/22444689

Racom which is the local EMS communication facility was wiped out as well

Vermeer makes heavy construction equipment and sends it everywhere,    they said some people can't find their cars,  I assume out in a field somewhere.   Wow.   Serious stuff here.


My wife and I were going to take our granddaughter to work and saw the backside of the shelf cloud, but didn't get a picture.   Pella is about 30 miles as is Marshalltown. Bondurant is ten miles away.

So we had floods 2 weeks ago with one death, but this so far no deaths, but they are out looking for victims.    Funny, though the federal government hasn't stepped in yet to help  even with the 6000 home damaged by the flooding.

Stay Safe, please.. and get a working weather radio.
« Last Edit: July 19, 2018, 09:36:14 PM by Aardvark »

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #17 on: July 19, 2018, 09:48:04 PM »
Thankfully, as of now, no fatalities being reported.


Offline Aardvark

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Re: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #18 on: July 19, 2018, 09:57:25 PM »
yes, no fatalities.  Vermeer had a customer appreciation day with 500 visitors at that time,  wow.

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #19 on: July 19, 2018, 10:14:47 PM »
yes, no fatalities.  Vermeer had a customer appreciation day with 500 visitors at that time,  wow.

Curious as to what the local media/forecasters were predicting for today?

As said earlier, many didn't see today being a big event typed day. SPC eventually put out an enhanced area for KS/MO but IA was off the radar for a bigger event.

Was there any emphasis placed on it before it was occurring?

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #20 on: July 19, 2018, 10:39:59 PM »
Might get a bit of rumbles after all, anything to make the crabgrass and weeds grow I guess. :lol:

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Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #21 on: July 19, 2018, 10:51:26 PM »
Decent rain falling, but no thunder or lightning.

#mothernaturehatesmeheretoo  :lol:

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #22 on: July 19, 2018, 10:56:32 PM »
Decent rain falling, but no thunder or lightning.

#mothernaturehatesmeheretoo  :lol:

Heavy rain now, and mustered up a good strike somewhere nearby. Clap of thunder had some rattle with it.

Offline melissa from illinois

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Re: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #23 on: July 19, 2018, 11:08:56 PM »
Decent rain falling, but no thunder or lightning.

#mothernaturehatesmeheretoo  :lol:

Heavy rain now, and mustered up a good strike somewhere nearby. Clap of thunder had some rattle with it.

Im getting LOTS of thunder and lightning. I think its just YOU that mother nature dont like lol.

Offline WeatherMonger

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Re: 7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
« Reply #24 on: July 19, 2018, 11:12:48 PM »
Decent rain falling, but no thunder or lightning.

#mothernaturehatesmeheretoo  :lol:

Heavy rain now, and mustered up a good strike somewhere nearby. Clap of thunder had some rattle with it.

Im getting LOTS of thunder and lightning. I think its just YOU that mother nature dont like lol.


Not quite, definitely getting some good fireworks here. Thunder and lightning happened after the front passed.

:lol: :D