Author Topic: Pilot/Topsail  (Read 12792 times)

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Offline ocala

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Pilot/Topsail
« on: September 04, 2007, 03:22:35 PM »
Keep an eye on 99L. This model has a pretty potent system making landfall in 4 days.
Then again it could come down here or go fishin.
It looks a little better organized today.
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Offline ncpilot

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #1 on: September 04, 2007, 03:53:13 PM »
We're about 18" below normal rainfall---it could be a good thing...  :)
Marc
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Offline talbert1952

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #2 on: September 04, 2007, 06:10:29 PM »
NOAA-15 image of 99L from the tobaccovilleweather.com satellite downlink. (09/4/2007 17:19 EST)



Click on thumbnail for full sized image.
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Offline ocala

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #3 on: September 04, 2007, 06:12:03 PM »
Sorry Tom. Forgot you were up there too.
The blues had a baby and they named it Rock & Roll

Offline anvana

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #4 on: September 05, 2007, 10:44:48 AM »
I would LOVE to see a good soaker out of this.

Offline ncpilot

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #5 on: September 05, 2007, 04:27:47 PM »
(From Jeff Masters' WU blog)

The computer models are all unanimous in developing 99L into a tropical storm. The preferred tracks are into North Carolina or South Carolina by Sunday or Monday. The HWRF, SHIPS, and GFDL intensity models are calling for a weak tropical storm, strong tropical storm, and Category 2 hurricane, respectively, when 99L makes landfall Monday in the Carolinas. Residents of the east coast of the U.S., and the Carolinas in particular, should carefully watch the development of 99L.


Gotta love those models... anywhere from a weak tropical storm to a Cat 2... Monday???? Better think about stocking up on liquor if it turns into a Cat 2!  :lol:  I mean bread and milk...  :wink:
Marc
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Offline TXsciencegirl

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #6 on: September 05, 2007, 06:53:52 PM »
LOL Ncpilot. If 99L becomes a Cat2 or stronger you may want to stick to the liquer so she goes by like a blurr. :lol:

Offline capeweather

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #7 on: September 05, 2007, 07:32:44 PM »
There has been quite a discussion about this system on my board if anybody is interested in reading it.

http://www.capeweather.com/ftopic-532-70.html

Chris
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Offline anvana

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #8 on: September 05, 2007, 07:43:01 PM »
Interesting conversations on your board, Chris. I've been looking in on some of the other public weather forums. I see predictions from fish storm to a full-blown Cat-3 SC/NC landfall by the weekend.

Funny thing...my sister, who lives in NE Ohio, decided this weekend would be a good time to fly in for a visit.

Offline capeweather

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #9 on: September 05, 2007, 08:02:06 PM »
Quote from: "anvana"
I see predictions from fish storm to a full-blown Cat-3 SC/NC landfall by the weekend.


Joe,
I know what you mean. Nobody can seem to figure out where it's going to go since all the models are very erratic. In due time we will find out though. Hopefully it turns into a fish storm and doesn't bother any of us. Ofcourse a little rain and wind wouldn't be so bad either. There's nothing wrong with a little excitement in the weather as long as it's not to bad.

Chris
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Offline ncpilot

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #10 on: September 05, 2007, 08:25:15 PM »
Holy Moly!...

Has anyone seen this site?:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL99

Talk about information overload...
Marc
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Offline capeweather

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #11 on: September 05, 2007, 08:43:33 PM »
Quote from: "ncpilot"
Holy Moly!...

Has anyone seen this site?:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL99

Talk about information overload...


Yep, one of the most annoying sites for tropical weather. The wheel on my mouse almost burned up trying to get to the bottom.

Chris
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Offline capeweather

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #12 on: September 05, 2007, 08:48:05 PM »
I just ran a time demo for a 56 dial-up user to retrieve all the data. 26 min and 52 seconds! I could probably build a website faster than that.  :roll:

Chris
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Offline NoQuitters

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #13 on: September 05, 2007, 09:13:08 PM »
Quote from: "ncpilot"
Holy Moly!...

Has anyone seen this site?:

http://www.crownweather.com/tropical.html#AL99

Talk about information overload...


Wonder if they have permission for all the hotlinking they are doing. They do seem to at least give credit for all the info.

Offline WeatherBeacon

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #14 on: September 05, 2007, 09:17:14 PM »
One thing can be said --- he/she is sure getting a lot of hits tonight!

K...
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Offline kray1000

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #15 on: September 05, 2007, 09:54:48 PM »
And they've probably exceeded their monthly bandwidth allotment by now...  :twisted:

Offline racenet

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #16 on: September 05, 2007, 10:17:51 PM »
Quote from: "ncpilot"
Holy Moly!...
Talk about information overload...


Tell me about it! By the time you get to the bottom of the page, your brain is so frried, they have to tell you "Bottom Of The Page" or you will continue scrolling and not go anywhere.  #-o  :lol:
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Offline ocala

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #17 on: September 06, 2007, 12:04:10 PM »
Annnnd poof. Looks like it's about toast. Still a LLC there but not much else.
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Offline ncpilot

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #18 on: September 06, 2007, 01:04:30 PM »
That's really too bad, because we could use the rain...
Marc
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Offline ncpilot

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #19 on: September 07, 2007, 10:30:21 AM »
Just goes to show you, forecasting still has a lot of art involved... 99L could still be anything from "nothing" to "something"...

=============================
From Jeff Masters' Blog today:

The GFS-based SHIPS model is predicting wind shear will fall to 5 knots on Saturday over 99L, and this should allow the storm to organize into a tropical storm by Saturday. The storm may have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall Sunday night in South Carolina or North Carolina, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model. However, the SHIPS intensity model and the HWRF models are calling for a tropical storm and tropical depression, respectively, at landfall. My best guess is that this will be a 60-65 mph tropical storm at landfall, but there is a very high amount of uncertainty with this forecast. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains and high winds to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L at 5pm EDT today. NHC issued this special advisory at 8:45am today:


SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
=============================

From NWS in Wilmington:

As for the offshore low...latest
guidance slower to move and develop low and consensus is for it to
come ashore sometime Sunday along the NC or SC coastline. Sat pics
from earlier today showed low looking pretty raggedy with a
completely exposed center. Latest WV imagery shows a good bit of
dry air continues to be entrained within the system although
convection is flaring up on its east side. Hurricane center notes
that upper level winds are not favorable for development...but
that this could change as system moves to the northwest. This all points
to slow development even if the low should pick up tropical
characteristics. Convective activity mainly to the east of the
system. If this continues to be the case...projected track will
keep heaviest rains confined to the coast and offshore. Have kept
probability of precipitation modest...no higher than chance. Does not look like this will be the drought breaker that we are hoping for...not even close.
Marc
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Offline kray1000

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #20 on: September 07, 2007, 10:36:55 AM »
Gotta love those "raggedy" systems... always hard to predict.

Offline anvana

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #21 on: September 07, 2007, 10:48:06 AM »
I'm still holding out for a rain event this weekend. At this point, just about any amount will be welcome.

Offline capeweather

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #22 on: September 07, 2007, 02:32:41 PM »

Chris
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Offline ncpilot

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #23 on: September 07, 2007, 02:47:33 PM »
Oh yeah, baby! Just saw those tracks a little while ago...

Guess I'd better stock up on something... :)

Estimates on strength are still wide though, from tropical to Cat 1...
Marc
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Offline ncpilot

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Re: Pilot/Topsail
« Reply #24 on: September 07, 2007, 02:54:33 PM »
Quote from: "TXsciencegirl"
LOL Ncpilot. If 99L becomes a Cat2 or stronger you may want to stick to the liquer so she goes by like a blurr. :lol:


That could be a plan... :)

Gotta laugh, I was just talking to someone a few days ago that said he really hates to be in a social situation where someone asks "so what do you do?", or "where do you work?".

So he retorts with "I'm into taxidermy"... LOL... Usually gets a blank stare...

The worst is when a hurricane hits at night... I think just about all of them I've experienced here were in the middle of the night. Hard to sleep, there's nothing new on radio or tv after a few hours, there's only so much you can drink...  :wink:

This looks to be a Sunday afternoon event.. if so, just so you all can hammer my limited "free" Earthlink bandwidth, I'll try to post a few links to some of my webcams, which I'll point outside...
Marc
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anything