Just goes to show you, forecasting still has a lot of art involved... 99L could still be anything from "nothing" to "something"...
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From Jeff Masters' Blog today:
The GFS-based SHIPS model is predicting wind shear will fall to 5 knots on Saturday over 99L, and this should allow the storm to organize into a tropical storm by Saturday. The storm may have time to intensify into a Category 1 hurricane before it makes landfall Sunday night in South Carolina or North Carolina, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model. However, the SHIPS intensity model and the HWRF models are calling for a tropical storm and tropical depression, respectively, at landfall. My best guess is that this will be a 60-65 mph tropical storm at landfall, but there is a very high amount of uncertainty with this forecast. The storm is then expected to track northward and then northeastward along the coast, bringing heavy rains and high winds to the mid-Atlantic and New England areas on Monday and Tuesday. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate 99L at 5pm EDT today. NHC issued this special advisory at 8:45am today:
SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
845 AM EDT FRI SEP 07 2007
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED BETWEEN BERMUDA AND THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY WESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND INTERESTS ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
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From NWS in Wilmington:
As for the offshore low...latest
guidance slower to move and develop low and consensus is for it to
come ashore sometime Sunday along the NC or SC coastline. Sat pics
from earlier today showed low looking pretty raggedy with a
completely exposed center. Latest WV imagery shows a good bit of
dry air continues to be entrained within the system although
convection is flaring up on its east side. Hurricane center notes
that upper level winds are not favorable for development...but
that this could change as system moves to the northwest. This all points
to slow development even if the low should pick up tropical
characteristics. Convective activity mainly to the east of the
system. If this continues to be the case...projected track will
keep heaviest rains confined to the coast and offshore. Have kept
probability of precipitation modest...no higher than chance. Does not look like this will be the drought breaker that we are hoping for...not even close.