General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics > Severe Weather
7/19/18 Midwest Tornado Outbreak
WeatherMonger:
Quite the surprise event evolved in IA today, several tornados, some of which have reports of being very destructive, occured.
Currently awaiting the issuance of a Thunderstorm Watch here im central IL as it turns more linear.
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--- Quote ---Mesoscale Discussion 1091
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0626 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018
Areas affected...Northeast Missouri into western and central
Illinois.
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely
Valid 192326Z - 200030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent
SUMMARY...Storms in southeast Iowa are expected to grow upscale
through the evening with an increasing wind damage threat. A
downstream severe thunderstorm watch is likely within the hour.
DISCUSSION...Latest HRRR guidance suggests the storms in southeast
Iowa may continue to grow upscale through the evening. Effective
shear of 40 to 45 knots per the latest RAP mesoanalysis and MUCAPE
of 2000 to 2500 J/kg supports continued growth of these existing
storms. If a strong enough cold-pool develops, a MCS may develop and
persist through much of the overnight period. Wind damage will be
the primary threat as these storms organize into a more linear mode.
Once these storms congeal into a linear segment, the tornado risk
will likely decrease as low-level shear vectors will be oriented
mostly parallel to any linear development. Some hail is possible,
but modest mid-level lapse rates (6 to 6.5 C/km) will preclude a
greater hail threat. A severe thunderstorm watch will likely be
needed within the hour to cover the damaging wind threat into the
overnight period.
..Bentley.. 07/19/2018
--- End quote ---
chief-david:
Kcci is Des moines is live.
http://www.kcci.com/article/central-iowa-ripe-for-storm-chances/22444689
Ugly day. I have been in from of that courthouse a few times.
WeatherMonger:
Watch just issued, I'm on the eastern fringe of it of course :lol:
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--- Quote ---URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 286
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
650 PM CDT Thu Jul 19 2018
The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a
* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
parts of western and central Illinois
portions of northeast and east central Missouri
* Effective this Thursday night and Friday morning from 650 PM
until 200 AM CDT.
* Primary threats include...
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
A tornado or two possible
SUMMARY...A cluster of strong/severe storms will continue shifting
southeast out of Iowa and into northwest Missouri/west-central
Illinois over the next few hours -- and possibly continuing into
central Illinois later this evening. Damaging winds will likely be
the primary severe risk, though hail may also occur over the next
couple of hours. A tornado or two will also be possible --
particularly in the next 1-2 hours over western portions of the
watch.
The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 50
statute miles north and south of a line from 15 miles west northwest
of Quincy IL to 30 miles north northeast of Salem IL. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
--- End quote ---
Tornado threat dropped off big time
--- Quote ---Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
Low (20%)
Probability of 1 or more strong (EF2-EF5) tornadoes
Low (5%)
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
Mod (50%)
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
Low (20%)
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
Mod (40%)
Probability of 1 or more hailstones > 2 inches
Low (20%)
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
High (80%)
--- End quote ---
WeatherMonger:
--- Quote from: chief-david on July 19, 2018, 07:57:42 PM ---Kcci is Des moines is live.
http://www.kcci.com/article/central-iowa-ripe-for-storm-chances/22444689
Ugly day. I have been in from of that courthouse a few times.
--- End quote ---
Seen a couple vids on the tornados, one in Marshalton and another in Bondurant that appeared to have a brief twin tornado.
https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid...mp;id=501662735
WeatherMonger:
Looks like it is losing its tornadic properties now and a wind threat will become the main factor. Damage is already done though, never wish that on anyone. Hopefully no loss of life has occurred.
Unless the bow extends northeastward I am likely to be skirted or all out missed with this one. North side of Springfield, IL.
I love a good storm, but never wish for destruction.
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