Author Topic: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)  (Read 752 times)

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Offline hankster

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Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)
« on: September 26, 2017, 11:27:27 PM »
Just thought I'd throw this out there. Models are hinting that something might start brewing in the western Caribbean early October.... just sayin'

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« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 11:16:24 PM by hankster »

Offline ocala

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #1 on: September 27, 2017, 05:56:00 PM »
Yeah I been watching that. Jville discussion seems to hint at a noreaster event.
Canadian shows low pressure coming up through the keys.
At the very least it will bring some cloud cover to get a break from these low to mid 90's.

Offline hankster

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #2 on: September 28, 2017, 07:57:48 AM »
I think you are talking about another system that looks like it's going to form this weekend. The one shown above may form further south near Central America. Anyways, sure is crazy weather!

Here is this weekends Nor'easter

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Offline ocala

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #3 on: September 28, 2017, 07:08:22 PM »
Really informative AFD from Jville today.
Basically that low off eastern Florida is going to move west across the state where the front coming down from the north stalls. Where ever that is should get some real nice weather.
Hopefully my backyard. :-)

Offline hankster

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #4 on: September 28, 2017, 09:22:08 PM »
Fun things to check if you want a look into the crystal ball. Run the GFS model at the below link and see what happens 9 days out :)

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/

Offline hankster

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #5 on: October 03, 2017, 06:39:07 PM »
Haven't posted any updates on this since none of the models have really been able to figure out what is going to happen down in the western Caribbean. Now they are starting to have some type of a somewhat close agreement what may be happening this weekend. Invest 90 and potential TS Nate looks, at this point, to head straight north to the middle Gulf states. Why not, storms have already hit the western and eastern Gulf states, don't want the central states to feel left out :)

At this point it doesn't appear that it will develop into a hurricane but if the front (and shear) clears out quicker than expected, development could be more favorable.

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Offline Glenn

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #6 on: October 04, 2017, 08:11:53 AM »
Thanks for the update! The local weatherman touched on this earlier today. Certainly a storm to keep an eye on.
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Connecticut

Offline hankster

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #7 on: October 04, 2017, 03:27:13 PM »
Ah, what a difference 12 hours can make! Latest models show a definite trend east and an increase in strength with soon to be Nate becoming a Cat 1 just before it hits that FL panhandle. Still too early to know for sure, much will depend on how far west he goes before making the turn north and then east. That turn will be determined by the approaching front. Still expect some pretty big fluctuations in the path forecast until the low pressure gets more organized and NOAA can pinpoint the center. Timing to start feeling Nate on the US mainland should be Saturday afternoon. Central Florida north to Mississippi should be paying attention.

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Offline ocala

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #8 on: October 04, 2017, 06:14:50 PM »
Just guessing here but I doubt it will get very strong so being that it won't be fully developed most of the convection will be off to the east of the center.

Although, after looking at the latest models Louisiana sure seems like a good target.
« Last Edit: October 04, 2017, 06:26:20 PM by ocala »

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #9 on: October 05, 2017, 06:57:43 AM »
It looks like TD 16 may be tropical storm strength when it gets to east TN.  That is really unusual.  Of course, it's still early, but I'll be watching it closely and roping things down over the weekend.  It's been 14 days since I've reported rain and it's awfully dry.  Any rain will probably just run off because the ground is like concrete.  There are a lot of trees that are leaning because we had a very wet spring with high winds.  It won't take much for them to start blowing over, especially with 50 to 60 mph winds.  It should be a real experience.  Of course, with my luck, I'll have to drive to work in the worst of it Monday morning.   8-[
« Last Edit: October 05, 2017, 07:21:38 AM by SlowModem »
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Offline hankster

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos
« Reply #10 on: October 05, 2017, 10:56:37 PM »
A fairly large shift west. The tracks are pretty concentrated with landfall looking to be at the Mississippi / Louisiana border. Since it appear Nate is going to move so fast I wouldn't doubt it will even be a bit further west than what is being shown today. The good thing is that Nate won't stick around long so that should keep rainfall totals relatively low. Below is tracks as of 5pm and a timeline.

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Offline hankster

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)
« Reply #11 on: October 06, 2017, 11:22:09 PM »
This will be the last post for Nate. By this time tomorrow he will have made landfall and by Monday will be off the coast of Massachusetts. A shift to the east with this model run which means that LA, MS, AL and FL all may get hurricane force winds. I wouldn't count out a further small shift east before landfall. One thing to watch out for is the Gulf is juicy, Nate could become a Cat 2 before it hits the coast, just have to wait and see.

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« Last Edit: October 06, 2017, 11:23:59 PM by hankster »

Offline AWL

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2017, 12:12:54 AM »
One thing to watch out for is the Gulf is juicy, Nate could become a Cat 2 before it hits the coast, just have to wait and see.

Don't forget Hurricane Camille which was a surprise as to how fast it intensified.

Offline SlowModem

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2017, 02:51:10 AM »
It looks like we're going to get slammed with a tropical storm Sunday night according to the NHC.  Tropical storm is 39 to 73 mph and it could get nasty.  I hope the storm moves fast.  I expect the Cocorahs gauge  and barometer to have interesting readings Monday morning.

Interestingly enough, the NWS just lists a chance of showers with a possibility of 25 mph winds.  I guess we'll find out which one is right on Monday.
« Last Edit: October 07, 2017, 02:58:48 AM by SlowModem »
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Offline ocala

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2017, 06:27:44 AM »
One thing to watch out for is the Gulf is juicy, Nate could become a Cat 2 before it hits the coast, just have to wait and see.

Don't forget Hurricane Camille which was a surprise as to how fast it intensified.
I hope that doesn't happen. Don't need a 4th major to make landfall this year.
People could become complacent if they think they are dealing with just a Cat 1.

Offline ocala

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)
« Reply #15 on: October 07, 2017, 06:29:02 AM »
It looks like we're going to get slammed with a tropical storm Sunday night according to the NHC.  Tropical storm is 39 to 73 mph and it could get nasty.  I hope the storm moves fast.  I expect the Cocorahs gauge  and barometer to have interesting readings Monday morning.

Interestingly enough, the NWS just lists a chance of showers with a possibility of 25 mph winds.  I guess we'll find out which one is right on Monday.
Stay safe up there Gregg. Hopefully those trees handle the winds.

Offline hankster

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)
« Reply #16 on: October 07, 2017, 09:01:58 AM »
We can see that Nate took a little jog to the east last night and for those on the ground that small jog can make a big difference. For us down here in SWFL, Irma took about a 20 miles jog to the east about 6 hours before landfall. That made all the difference to those living around me. That small change meant that Irma came ashore around Marco Island/Naples instead of Fort Myers. This decreased the winds for us in the Fort Myers area from possible 120MPH winds to 80MPH as Irma was now further inland by the time it passed and the land interaction decreased the strength.

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Offline SlowModem

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Re: Next Thing to Watch Part Dos (Nate)
« Reply #17 on: October 07, 2017, 12:42:14 PM »
I'm going to go out this afternoon and start surveying and securing.  I don't have too many things outside.  My major concerns are the bees and the chickens.  And I've got to get the storm shelter aired out.

It looks like we're going to get slammed with a tropical storm Sunday night according to the NHC.  Tropical storm is 39 to 73 mph and it could get nasty.  I hope the storm moves fast.  I expect the Cocorahs gauge  and barometer to have interesting readings Monday morning.

Interestingly enough, the NWS just lists a chance of showers with a possibility of 25 mph winds.  I guess we'll find out which one is right on Monday.
Stay safe up there Gregg. Hopefully those trees handle the winds.
Greg Whitehead
Ten Mile, TN USA

http://www.wattsbarweather.net