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General Weather/Earth Sciences Topics => Tropical Weather => Topic started by: ocala on October 06, 2018, 11:40:34 AM

Title: Michael
Post by: ocala on October 06, 2018, 11:40:34 AM
Most of the global models have a tropical system hitting anywhere from the mid Florida panhandle west to New Orleans on Wednesday.
Pretty good agreement on the models 4 days out for a system in the formative stages in the  southern Gulf.
Stay tuned.
Title: Re: Future Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 07, 2018, 05:18:52 PM
No longer 'Future'.  Now a 50MPH TS, possible Cat 1 for Tallahassee



Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ocala on October 07, 2018, 06:41:09 PM
Updated
NHC has a Cat 2, 100mph for landfall.
Still going to be to my west but I remember Charley making a hard right.
Going to keep an "eye" on this one.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: SWX on October 07, 2018, 09:27:31 PM
I’ve been keeping an eye on it, should still be a tropical storm once it heads this way, assuming it does.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 08, 2018, 05:30:25 AM
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Navarre Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Alabama-Florida border to Suwanee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Suwanee River to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay
* Alabama-Florida border to the Mississippi-Alabama border


Michael is forecast to be near or at major hurricane strength when it reaches the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 08, 2018, 02:19:18 PM
(https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1962/43370264240_690f087f6d_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/295tWyy)IMG_1823pp (https://flic.kr/p/295tWyy) by Intheswamp (https://www.flickr.com/photos/71532701@N07/), on Flickr
A low-rez camera panorama of downtown Luverne, AL, showing a bit of unsettled weather ahead of TS Michael.  Basically a south-north orientation (10° to 190°).
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 08, 2018, 02:27:41 PM
Er, Cat-1 now...that was quick.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 08, 2018, 06:38:12 PM
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number   9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
400 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  08/2100Z 22.2N  85.2W   70 KT  80 MPH
 12H  09/0600Z 23.7N  85.7W   85 KT 100 MPH
 24H  09/1800Z 25.7N  86.4W   95 KT 110 MPH
 36H  10/0600Z 27.9N  86.6W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  10/1800Z 30.2N  85.8W  100 KT 115 MPH...NEAR THE COAST
 72H  11/1800Z 34.5N  80.5W   45 KT  50 MPH...INLAND



Cat 3 at Landfall??

Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 08, 2018, 11:09:57 PM
I've heard Cat-3 at landfall from a few places....
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 09, 2018, 03:12:49 AM
Hurricane Michael Discussion Number  10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL142018
1000 PM CDT Mon Oct 08 2018


Michael's steady intensification over the past 48 hours in the face
of 20-kt westerly shear defies traditional logic. Either the shear
calculations are unrepresentative or Michael has become more
inertially stable due to its large eye and large outer wind field,
making it more shear resistant. Having said that, all of the model
guidance calls for the shear to decrease to around 10 kt or less by
36 hours, which argues for at least steady intensification during
that time given that Michael will be moving over warm SSTs of
28.5C-29C, which are about 1-2 deg C above average for this time of
the year. Less-than-normal weakening after landfall in the 48-
to 96-h period is expected due to Michael's fast forward speed of
20-30 kt. Re-strengthening as an extratropical low over water on
days 4 and 5 is forecast due to baroclinic interaction with a
frontal system and the cyclone being back over warm Atlantic waters.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  09/0300Z 23.2N  85.3W   80 KT  90 MPH
 12H  09/1200Z 24.7N  85.9W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  10/0000Z 26.8N  86.3W  100 KT 115 MPH
 36H  10/1200Z 29.1N  85.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  11/0000Z 31.4N  84.4W   55 KT  65 MPH...INLAND
 
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: vreihen on October 10, 2018, 06:31:20 AM
Now a Cat 4 @ 140 MPH per the 6:00 AM EDT observation.....
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 10, 2018, 08:10:02 AM
Looks nasty with tight eye this morning.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 10, 2018, 08:20:39 AM
Up to 145 on the 7AM Update
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 10, 2018, 09:12:01 AM
I hope those folks didn't underestimate Michael. At least it isn't dragging like Florence if there is any good in this mess.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 10, 2018, 09:22:11 AM
Is it my eyes, or are they showing Hurricane force winds for Atlanta?

Maybe south of Atlanta ...  Macon, Albany.



Title: Re: Michael
Post by: rdsman on October 10, 2018, 10:33:35 AM
Michael is currently 60 miles south of Panama City Beach.  I am 175 miles NNE of Panama City Beach and it is just starting to rain here......

 
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: SlowModem on October 10, 2018, 11:30:12 AM
This is going to be bad.  From what I see on TV, the Floridians have gone.  I hope they're safe.

What I'm afraid of is the people in SW Georgia.  There's not really any large population centers there, but there are a lot of small towns.  I used to work for a company in Ochlocknee, GA, and I know they get very strong storms there.  I know they're away from the storm surge, but they could be in for some very strong winds, rain, and maybe tornadoes.

I'm off today, so I guess I'll watch the coverage today and see if any reporters do anything stupid.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 10, 2018, 12:44:19 PM
We're about 100 miles NNW of Panama City, Florida.  The rain has intensified over the last 30 minutes or so.  Had been drizzling all morning but now a medium rain is falling.  Wind has picked up a bit, but hasn't been strong yet...gusts around 17mph.  Just a rainy, blustery day...so far, over here in south Alabama.

Tyndall AFB is under the gun....Callaway and Panama City are both going to catch it hard.  Folks in rural areas from there well into Georgia need to hunker down and stay safe.

Looks like hurricane force winds have started battering Mexico Beach and Port St. Joe.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: SlowModem on October 10, 2018, 01:05:32 PM
I'm watching a weather station on WU in the Panama City area that seems to be a Florida State station.  Of course, the readings will only last as long as there is power.  But it seems to be hanging in there.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLPANAM58#history
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 10, 2018, 01:10:09 PM
Speeds up to 150.  Been a while since one has gotten progressively stronger as it approached land and was considerably higher than initially forecast.  A couple of days ago, they were only calling for Cat 1, maybe 2.  This is now bordering on Cat 5.

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Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 10, 2018, 01:16:11 PM
I'm watching a weather station on WU in the Panama City area that seems to be a Florida State station.  Of course, the readings will only last as long as there is power.  But it seems to be hanging in there.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KFLPANAM58#history

Just hit 97mph ...The PWS is a Davis VP2
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 10, 2018, 01:30:27 PM
Stuck on 100 MPH. Power must have gone off.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 10, 2018, 01:48:54 PM
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...
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 10, 2018, 02:13:00 PM
It's a killer.  The lady with the two dogs that decided to stay because the forecasters were just trying to make it sound bad just might be having some second thoughts about now.<sigh>

NWS predicted us to get between 3/4" and 1" of rain....we've already surpassed 1".  Winds are up, but not bad...gusting up to around 18mph.

Looks like most all the stations around Panama City are not reporting....most last reported a little over an hour ago...
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 10, 2018, 02:30:32 PM
It looks like landfall was on the south end of Tyndall AFB where there are some smaller airstrips/stations.  More precisely, at the south end of Saint Andrews Sound.  130mph winds recorded before Tyndall's before their equipment failed.  Some are saying Cat2 while traveling into southern Georgia.  13' storm surge anticipated in Apalachicola...many did not evacuate. 

A 90 mile swatch of hurricane force winds of this strength....bad.  ...and then, the rain. :-(
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 10, 2018, 02:49:41 PM
Wow, this is gonna majorly hit Lynn Haven, Panama City Beach, Mexico Beach, Port St Joe, Apalachicola...that entire area is getting ripped...

(https://farm2.staticflickr.com/1959/44319427655_52e96098b8_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2awmDM2)HurMichael1pmWeda (https://flic.kr/p/2awmDM2) by Intheswamp (https://www.flickr.com/photos/71532701@N07/), on Flickr
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 10, 2018, 02:51:18 PM
It looks like landfall was on the south end of Tyndall AFB where there are some smaller airstrips/stations.  More precisely, at the south end of Saint Andrews Sound.  130mph winds recorded before Tyndall's before their equipment failed.  Some are saying Cat2 while traveling into southern Georgia.  13' storm surge anticipated in Apalachicola...many did not evacuate. 

A 90 mile swatch of hurricane force winds of this strength....bad.  ...and then, the rain. :-(

The Davis station link above made 100 mph. Been in a brief 80 mph wind can't image the damage with sustained winds that high.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 10, 2018, 06:15:33 PM
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 :shock:
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ocala on October 10, 2018, 08:05:38 PM
Was  watching the evening news tonight and the footage they showed was incredible.
A whole lot of people just had their life turned upside down.
Going to be a long recovery.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Jstx on October 10, 2018, 08:25:50 PM
After Michael rips the SE, get ready for a possible Hurricane Leslie, which has been on/off since 23 September.
Leslie has done a couple of loops in the mid-Atlantic. Leslie is a Cat 1 now, heading E, SE of the Azores.
By Saturday night Leslie is expected to do almost a 180 and start heading to the SW, towards warmer water and lower latitudes (Leslie's at 27.8°N 41.9°W, now, lower than Michael).
It is expected to then weaken some, but as it tracks SW to W it could very well restrengthen for the x'th time in its' very long history.
Leslie could then threaten anywhere from the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, to Florida or the SE coast.
TS Nadine doesn't look like it will do much, but who knows.
Interesting climate, eh?
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 10, 2018, 10:14:37 PM
Was  watching the evening news tonight and the footage they showed was incredible.
A whole lot of people just had their life turned upside down.
Going to be a long recovery.

Some of the video coming out from down there is really heartbreaking...down toward Apalachicola is what I refer to as "old Florida"...it wouldn't surprise me if the fishing village and cafes/restaurants are gone.  Lots of folks didn't leave, too.  It makes me wonder whether the media playing up the smaller storms in the past and people heeding the "warnings" to evacuate caused some people to fall victim to kind of a reverse "boy that cried wolf" situation.  Whatever...there's gonna be lots of heartbreak.
 
It was mostly a non-event 50 miles south of Montgomery, Alabama.  I just got back from leading my daughter back to her house...about 30 miles further south on the west side of Covington County (town of Opp being the closest population center).  Seemed much more gusty down there just those few miles further south.  Still gusty up here but the rain is basically gone.

Just received a text from my sister in Columbus, Georgia...10,000 reported out of power there...she still has power.

Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 10, 2018, 10:25:52 PM
From Facebook... Mexico Beach
(https://scontent-atl3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/43758076_10214030367926471_1874744432905945088_o.jpg?_nc_cat=1&oh=b489f9bc3e0dfbb40927848289f6f7ce&oe=5C1A1A44)
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 10, 2018, 10:32:32 PM
If you're on Facebook, here's a video of Mexico Beach...
https://www.facebook.com/ryan.graney/videos/10217383795615046/
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 11, 2018, 12:37:04 AM
Lots of folks didn't leave, too.  It makes me wonder whether the media playing up the smaller storms in the past and people heeding the "warnings" to evacuate caused some people to fall victim to kind of a reverse "boy that cried wolf" situation.

This was only forecast to be a Cat 1, maybe low Cat 2 which is pretty much old hat for many along that coast.  It came in as a Cat4/5 which probably caught a lot of them by surprise.

Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ocala on October 11, 2018, 05:57:28 AM
If you live along the gulf or atlantic coast during hurricane season you have to be vigilant.
Have to have the one foot out the door mentality with these storms. I realize everyone isn't as weather aware as we are on this board but as soon as you hear about a possible event you have to start planning ahead.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: SlowModem on October 11, 2018, 11:09:21 AM
I'm not going to compare this to other storms.  But there's going to be a wide swath from landfall to Virginia/North Carolina.  I think they were getting near-hurricane-force winds in Macon, GA, and I'm sure those people didn't evacuate.  It's hard for me to get my head around the enormity of this storm.  Wow.  :o

I noticed that rdsman said he was 175 mi NNE of landfall.  Has he reported in?
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ValentineWeather on October 11, 2018, 11:49:41 AM
I think it caught many by surprise how fast it strengthened. Good thing it was moving and didn't stall, damage and life loss could of been even worse.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: rdsman on October 11, 2018, 01:55:58 PM
Quote
I noticed that rdsman said he was 175 mi NNE of landfall.  Has he reported in?
We survived with no damage.  The closest that Michael came to us as a Cat 3 was roughly 110 miles due south.  By the time it was 80 miles southeast of us it was a Cat 1.  We had steady rain for 17 hours.  I measured a total of 3.28 inches during this time.  It seems low, but its inline with the stations around me.  My maximum wind gust was 32 mph, again similar to stations close to me.

I wonder if the El Governor Motel in Mexico Beach survived.  A massive amount of destruction...


Title: Re: Michael
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 11, 2018, 05:19:38 PM
Only 32 MPH? Wow. I just had 47 MPH and I am well over 100 miles from the center. One of my guy wires snapped also for my anemometer.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 11, 2018, 10:38:20 PM
Only 32 MPH? Wow. I just had 47 MPH and I am well over 100 miles from the center. One of my guy wires snapped also for my anemometer.
I'm wondering about my anemometer...we recorded a high of 33mph and the trees were *really* whipping.  Definitely not hurricane winds, but seems they would've been higher than 33mph.  How would one test an anemometer???....Davis VP2?

The drone footage on Fox is incredible...Mexico Beach, wow!!!!!!!!!!! :(

Lots of folks out of power in Georgia:  http://outagemap.georgiapower.com/external/m.html

My wife and I were up in Montgomery today and we saw several Florida tags.  I overheard one person in a store talking on a cellphone saying something about "just looking for something to keep us occupied"...I figured he was an evacuee.   
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: reddclay on October 12, 2018, 01:08:53 AM
Hello, 
I was hoping somebody could help me out.  I apologize in advance if my query is off base or ridiculous but I am sharing with you the commentary that somebody sent me which is very conspiracy oriented.   If you would point me to the historical wind data to debunk these claims, I'd appreciate it.  Unless, the claims have validity. 

First the conspiracy.  http://82.221.129.208/.yb7.html   The assertion is that the data was falsified, and damage not consistent with 155mph winds.   

Second,  Somebody kept referring to wind speed on this weather app https://www.ventusky.com  The winds never exceeded Category one.  I was currently looking at wind speeds at the current "eye" of the tropical storm as it appears on the screen and it says wind speed is not in excess of 10mph while accuweather had 50 mph sustained winds.  How can I account for such extreme differences between the reported speed by media and what appears on this site and Windy.com

Third, https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/sar.php?station=sgof1   I don't see any data that indicates the wind exceeded 50 knots on 10/10.  How can that be? 

Windspeeds at Panama City reach 60 knots and the rest is missing.  https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=pacf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT   And the previous data page, all data is missing.    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pacf1&uom=E&tz=EST  Can you help me locate any of the data that indicates wind speed consistent with a Hurricane 4?
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 12, 2018, 06:32:20 AM
I don't usually get into this stuff, but ....

NCDC is archival.  They may not have current data as it takes a few days to review and verify.

Many weather stations have wind limits before destruction, same as most other things.  When winds get to 80, 90 or more, they vanish.  Some fail at lower wind speeds.  The fact you can't find wind readings above that could be an indication there were indeed far higher.



Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 12, 2018, 07:58:46 AM
Welcome to the forum!!!   I'm not trying to be harsh, but...

You can kind of look at the photos and videos and realize it was a *little* bit more than a Category 1 hurricane.  Maybe the Airforce staged a mock disaster for a drill, showing those planes tossed around and flipped upside down?  Miles of coastline wiped out?  House after house after house submerged?  Power outages up through Georgia in conjunction with the storm?  Flooding through the Carolinas?  :-| 

If not a major hurricane then what event does "somebody" think caused this disaster?  Or, does "somebody" think that all the destruction is actually staged on a movie set in Arizona and that today is just a regular ho-hum day in Mexico Beach?

Maybe these questions were answered in the yb7 html but I tend to stay away from links I don't know about and from people who suddenly appear in my presence.   I'm sure you understand. ;)

Best wishes.

Hello, 
I was hoping somebody could help me out.  I apologize in advance if my query is off base or ridiculous but I am sharing with you the commentary that somebody sent me which is very conspiracy oriented.   If you would point me to the historical wind data to debunk these claims, I'd appreciate it.  Unless, the claims have validity. 

First the conspiracy.  http://82.221.129.208/.yb7.html   The assertion is that the data was falsified, and damage not consistent with 155mph winds.   

Second,  Somebody kept referring to wind speed on this weather app https://www.ventusky.com  The winds never exceeded Category one.  I was currently looking at wind speeds at the current "eye" of the tropical storm as it appears on the screen and it says wind speed is not in excess of 10mph while accuweather had 50 mph sustained winds.  How can I account for such extreme differences between the reported speed by media and what appears on this site and Windy.com

Third, https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/sar.php?station=sgof1   I don't see any data that indicates the wind exceeded 50 knots on 10/10.  How can that be? 

Windspeeds at Panama City reach 60 knots and the rest is missing.  https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php?station=pacf1&meas=wspd&uom=E&time_diff=-4&time_label=EDT   And the previous data page, all data is missing.    https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pacf1&uom=E&tz=EST  Can you help me locate any of the data that indicates wind speed consistent with a Hurricane 4?
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 12, 2018, 08:07:40 AM
Let me say this, too.  I'm no hurricane expert, though I stayed at a Holiday Inn Express several years ago....
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: reddclay on October 12, 2018, 09:10:37 AM
Welcome to the forum!!!   I'm not trying to be harsh, but...

You can kind of look at the photos and videos and realize it was a *little* bit more than a Category 1 hurricane.  Maybe the Airforce staged a mock disaster for a drill, showing those planes tossed around and flipped upside down?  Miles of coastline wiped out?  House after house after house submerged?  Power outages up through Georgia in conjunction with the storm?  Flooding through the Carolinas?  :-| 

If not a major hurricane then what event does "somebody" think caused this disaster?  Or, does "somebody" think that all the destruction is actually staged on a movie set in Arizona and that today is just a regular ho-hum day in Mexico Beach?

Maybe these questions were answered in the yb7 html but I tend to stay away from links I don't know about and from people who suddenly appear in my presence.   I'm sure you understand. ;)


Hello, Thank you for your response.   

Their assertions are NOT that there was no hurricane.  That there has been consistent over exaggeration of the storms.  There were people on a forum who were monitoring the wind speeds during the entire time and nobody could find NOAA data that was consistent with a Category 4.  There was obviously a hurricane. 

The assertions are that the damage at Mexico Beach Fl were mostly caused by the surf.   Windows remain in tact.  You see video's when the whole place was flooded causing most of the destruction.  Similar photo's from other hurricanes, show tree's that were totally snapped and uprooted.  There are alot of tree's standing still but I noted that Palm Tree's do not snap.  They are more likely to get lifted out of the ground. 

I've looked at other Florida towns for photo's but can't find much.   Panama city looks like hit got it by a hurricane but very recoverable.  And the other assertion is that it went from Cat. 4 to tropical storm in record time.   

It also doesn't explain why none of us could find winds consistent on Ventusky and Windy.  I did find wind gusts up to 113 kts but not sustained winds.       

The weather monitoring equipment can't withstand 80 mph winds?  If that's the case, where are they getting the data from?   

The buoy's I posted an other nearby do not show winds beyond 30 kts.  That doesn't make sense even if it was a Cat 2 or 3?   

It looks like a hurricane to me.   But I have to prove my case.   There has to be some data that somebody captured during the storm or records that show historical wind speeds?    This is the 21st century.   If MSM is getting the raw data and forecasted models  from NOAH, then NOAH's data should have reflected it in real time or at least be some record.   

I can't respond to them with wise guy comments.   Very data oriented people.  Is Mexico Beach the ONLY place that got "wiped out" from a cat 4 storm?  Must be photographic evidence of other places?
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: WeatherHost on October 12, 2018, 10:48:53 AM
You also have to remember that those windspeed estimates are based on data collected from the C-130 Hurricane Hunter aircraft at flight level, then extrapolated down to ground level.  There can be some error involved there.  Very few ground based weather stations can measure and verify 150 MPH winds.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: bchwdlks on October 12, 2018, 03:00:41 PM
ANY storm that causes ""30 Waffle Houses locations closed" (https://www.eater.com/2018/10/11/17963460/waffle-house-shut-down-30-restaurants-hurricane-michael-florida) is a MAJOR event.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 12, 2018, 03:55:41 PM
ANY storm that causes ""30 Waffle Houses locations closed" (https://www.eater.com/2018/10/11/17963460/waffle-house-shut-down-30-restaurants-hurricane-michael-florida) is a MAJOR event.
:shock: :shock:  I DID NOT KNOW THIS!!!!!!!!!!!!  <SHUDDER>
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 12, 2018, 04:05:31 PM
reddclay, good luck on your search for the data that you're looking for, maybe you will find it.  As for the conspiracy, global warming, bogus whatever...there are nuts on the far left and far right and the far behind, too. Don't lose too much sleep over it.  ;)
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: CW2274 on October 12, 2018, 05:59:51 PM
Welcome to the forum!!!   I'm not trying to be harsh, but...

You can kind of look at the photos and videos and realize it was a *little* bit more than a Category 1 hurricane.  Maybe the Airforce staged a mock disaster for a drill, showing those planes tossed around and flipped upside down?  Miles of coastline wiped out?  House after house after house submerged?  Power outages up through Georgia in conjunction with the storm?  Flooding through the Carolinas?  :-| 

If not a major hurricane then what event does "somebody" think caused this disaster?  Or, does "somebody" think that all the destruction is actually staged on a movie set in Arizona and that today is just a regular ho-hum day in Mexico Beach?

Maybe these questions were answered in the yb7 html but I tend to stay away from links I don't know about and from people who suddenly appear in my presence.   I'm sure you understand. ;)
I can't respond to them with wise guy comments.   Very data oriented people.  Is Mexico Beach the ONLY place that got "wiped out" from a cat 4 storm?  Must be photographic evidence of other places?
Yes, space. Any trained eye can easily tell the approximate strength of a hurricane just by looking at it from above. You don't see Cat1's and 2's, even 3's, with perfectly formed CDO's. Not only, you have the central pressure readings taken from the NHC planes that fly into the storm directly, which corresponds very closely to wind speed, let alone the raw wind data they collect. As a matter of fact, Micheal had a lower central pressure at land fall than Andrew did, and that was a Cat5.
You don't need anemometers for proof.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: reddclay on October 12, 2018, 10:09:53 PM
Yes, space. Any trained eye can easily tell the approximate strength of a hurricane just by looking at it from above. You don't see Cat1's and 2's, even 3's, with perfectly formed CDO's. Not only, you have the central pressure readings taken from the NHC planes that fly into the storm directly, which corresponds very closely to wind speed, let alone the raw wind data they collect. As a matter of fact, Micheal had a lower central pressure at land fall than Andrew did, and that was a Cat5.
You don't need anemometers for proof.

I like this reframe.  Visual identification makes sense and letting me why the ground stations might be useless

I really appreciate all the replies!!!

Sounds to me that people don't realize all they don't know.  I'm not searching for anymore data but it would have been nice. Cherry on the cake and all that.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: SlowModem on October 13, 2018, 06:46:31 AM
Is Mexico Beach the ONLY place that got "wiped out" from a cat 4 storm?  Must be photographic evidence of other places?

It looked like the eye went across an Air Force Base just east of Panama City.  I'm sure it's destroyed.  But it probably won't be publicized.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Intheswamp on October 13, 2018, 09:10:19 AM
I read one report that basically every building at Tyndall AFB was destroyed.  Fox News had pictures of some small jets and maybe some prop-driven planes flipped over on their backs. 
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: DoctorKnow on October 13, 2018, 09:31:17 AM
Also the reason for the storm weakening "so quickly" is it lost it's fuel source, and it went through a lot of obstacles to help tear it up... When it got to North Carolina, it was still causing wind near 70 MPH on the east side. Power was knocked out across my neighborhood as I registered winds of 54 MPH with an anemometer dancing around near 26 ft AGL.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: rdsman on October 13, 2018, 10:11:26 AM
Quote
It looked like the eye went across an Air Force Base just east of Panama City.  I'm sure it's destroyed.  But it probably won't be publicized.

It was pretty much devastated also:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML_Vn0FF6lM

Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Jasiu on October 13, 2018, 10:22:34 AM
Quote
It looked like the eye went across an Air Force Base just east of Panama City.  I'm sure it's destroyed.  But it probably won't be publicized.

It was pretty much devastated also:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ML_Vn0FF6lM

This was in the western eyewall, so it was northerly (offshore) winds. All wind damage. Look at those snapped trees.

Honestly, any time and energy expended to debunk the NWS data is better spent trying to figure out how to help the folks who lived through this and have to deal with the consequences.
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: SlowModem on October 13, 2018, 11:10:59 AM
I didn't think the Air Force would be so forthcoming.  The damage was total.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6271701/Tyndall-Air-Force-Base-devastated-Hurricane-Michael.html
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ocala on October 13, 2018, 05:20:25 PM
Please forgive my computer skills as I suck at this but I was able to piece together a before and after sat view of the area where it came ashore.
Look at how defoliated the area is after.
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Title: Re: Michael
Post by: Vette-kid on June 25, 2019, 04:23:24 PM
I realize this thread is a bit old now.  I love close to where Micheal hit, in the Destin area.  I'm a pilot and after the storm I flew in that direction, there are HUGE swaths of pine Forest that are leveled.  Even today, flying over Panama City there are a lot of blue tarps still on roofs.  This was a devastating storm.  I hope this season more people, my friends included, will heed the warnings and get out of the way.  We did, and I'm glad we did.  We were about 60 miles as the crow flies from Mexico beach.  To close not to leave!
Title: Re: Michael
Post by: ocala on June 25, 2019, 05:07:32 PM
It takes many years to remove the scars from storms like Michael. People still living in tents up there.
https://news-vice-com.cdn.ampproject.org/v/s/news.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/8xzxx4/the-forgotten-people-living-in-tent-cities-7-months-after-hurricane-michael?amp_js_v=a2&amp_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQA#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&amp_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fnews.vice.com%2Fen_us%2Farticle%2F8xzxx4%2Fthe-forgotten-people-living-in-tent-cities-7-months-after-hurricane-michaeleen eerily quiet so far this year.